UAL 预期波动历史 United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内76%
|实际值| 低于预期值76%
平均预期波动幅度±7.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.9%
平均绝对误差3.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | Oct 23 | 3 | 95.60 | ±6.7% | 89.20–102.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 95.60 | ±6.5% | 89.39–101.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 96.45 | ±7.0% | 89.65–103.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 98.90 | ±7.8% | 91.22–106.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 103.23 | ±7.1% | 95.93–110.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 107.67 | ±8.0% | 99.09–116.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 106.91 | ±9.2% | 97.08–116.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 110.50 | ±9.1% | 100.40–120.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 112.13 | ±9.7% | 101.25–123.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 110.06 | ±9.7% | 99.33–120.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 112.79 | ±10.8% | 100.59–124.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 111.69 | ±11.3% | 99.11–124.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 115.04 | ±12.6% | 100.49–129.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 115.04 | ±12.6% | 100.49–129.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 114.50 | ±12.5% | 100.15–128.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 108.53 | ±12.5% | 94.97–122.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 107.64 | ±12.1% | 94.59–120.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 106.29 | ±12.8% | 92.72–119.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 106.80 | ±12.9% | 93.08–120.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 109.51 | ±12.5% | 95.83–123.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 110.34 | ±13.1% | 95.84–124.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 106.50 | ±13.3% | 92.38–120.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 107.21 | ±12.8% | 93.51–120.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 109.84 | ±13.2% | 95.36–124.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 111.67 | ±13.7% | 96.37–126.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 111.53 | ±13.7% | 96.23–126.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 20 | Oct 30 | 10 | 95.60 | ±9.0% | 87.03–104.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 95.60 | ±8.2% | 87.72–103.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 96.45 | ±8.7% | 88.10–104.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 98.90 | ±8.7% | 90.29–107.51 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 96.45 → 96.10 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 98.90 → 96.10 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -6.9% | 区间外 | 103.23 → 96.10 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 107.67 → 96.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -10.1% | 区间外 | 106.91 → 96.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 110.50 → 96.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 112.13 → 96.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -12.7% | 区间外 | 110.06 → 96.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -14.8% | 区间外 | 112.79 → 96.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -14.0% | 区间外 | 111.69 → 96.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -16.5% | 区间外 | 115.04 → 96.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -16.5% | 区间外 | 115.04 → 96.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -16.1% | 区间外 | 114.50 → 96.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -11.4% | 区间外 | 108.53 → 96.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -10.7% | 区间内 | 107.64 → 96.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -9.6% | 区间内 | 106.29 → 96.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 106.80 → 96.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 109.51 → 96.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 110.34 → 96.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -9.8% | 区间内 | 106.50 → 96.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -10.4% | 区间内 | 107.21 → 96.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 109.84 → 96.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -13.9% | 区间外 | 111.67 → 96.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 111.53 → 96.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -11.2% | 区间内 | 108.20 → 96.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | -8.2% | 区间内 | 104.67 → 96.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 104.51 → 96.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -12.6% | 区间外 | 110.00 → 96.10 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 107.67 → 107.46 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 106.91 → 107.46 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 110.50 → 107.46 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 112.13 → 107.46 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 110.06 → 107.46 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 112.79 → 107.46 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 111.69 → 107.46 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 115.04 → 107.46 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 115.04 → 107.46 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 114.50 → 107.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 108.53 → 107.46 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 107.64 → 107.46 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 106.29 → 107.46 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 106.80 → 107.46 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 109.51 → 107.46 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 110.34 → 107.46 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 106.50 → 107.46 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 107.21 → 107.46 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 109.84 → 107.46 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 111.67 → 107.46 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 111.53 → 107.46 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 108.20 → 107.46 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 104.67 → 107.46 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 104.51 → 107.46 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 110.00 → 107.46 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 112.79 → 112.51 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 111.69 → 112.51 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 115.04 → 112.51 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 115.04 → 112.51 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 114.50 → 112.51 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 108.53 → 112.51 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 107.64 → 112.51 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.