TXN historial de movimiento esperado Texas Instruments Incorporated
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango50%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado50%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.0%
Error medio abs.2.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 276.15 | ±7.5% | 255.47–296.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 276.48 | ±8.4% | 253.25–299.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 280.65 | ±8.4% | 256.95–304.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 283.63 | ±9.1% | 257.93–309.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 282.79 | ±8.8% | 258.04–307.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 288.60 | ±9.2% | 261.93–315.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 288.80 | ±9.0% | 262.68–314.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 297.23 | ±8.5% | 271.98–322.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 294.50 | ±8.9% | 268.30–320.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 293.80 | ±9.5% | 266.00–321.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 281.50 | ±9.9% | 253.75–309.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 271.97 | ±10.7% | 242.92–301.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 271.75 | ±10.7% | 242.70–300.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 270.85 | ±10.9% | 241.25–300.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 264.48 | ±10.7% | 236.13–292.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 260.11 | ±10.9% | 231.88–288.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 258.43 | ±11.2% | 229.56–287.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 263.31 | ±11.6% | 232.79–293.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 262.91 | ±11.9% | 231.63–294.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 270.75 | ±11.9% | 238.56–302.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 260.30 | ±12.1% | 228.93–291.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 260.60 | ±12.1% | 229.12–292.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 257.81 | ±12.2% | 226.36–289.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 258.24 | ±12.3% | 226.59–289.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 259.71 | ±12.2% | 228.09–291.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 253.74 | ±12.4% | 222.34–285.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 276.15 | ±9.0% | 251.30–301.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 276.48 | ±10.0% | 248.96–304.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 280.65 | ±9.9% | 252.95–308.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 283.63 | ±9.9% | 255.53–311.73 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 276.48 → 276.48 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -1.5% | dentro | 280.65 → 276.48 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -2.5% | dentro | 283.63 → 276.48 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -2.2% | dentro | 282.79 → 276.48 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -4.2% | dentro | 288.60 → 276.48 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -4.3% | dentro | 288.80 → 276.48 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -7.0% | fuera | 297.23 → 276.48 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -6.1% | fuera | 294.50 → 276.48 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -5.9% | fuera | 293.80 → 276.48 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -1.8% | dentro | 281.50 → 276.48 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +1.7% | dentro | 271.97 → 276.48 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +1.7% | dentro | 271.75 → 276.48 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +2.1% | dentro | 270.85 → 276.48 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +4.5% | dentro | 264.48 → 276.48 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +6.3% | dentro | 260.11 → 276.48 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +7.0% | dentro | 258.43 → 276.48 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +5.0% | dentro | 263.31 → 276.48 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +5.2% | dentro | 262.91 → 276.48 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +2.1% | dentro | 270.75 → 276.48 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +6.2% | dentro | 260.30 → 276.48 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +6.1% | dentro | 260.60 → 276.48 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +7.2% | dentro | 257.81 → 276.48 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +7.1% | dentro | 258.24 → 276.48 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +6.5% | dentro | 259.71 → 276.48 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +9.0% | dentro | 253.74 → 276.48 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +7.5% | dentro | 257.18 → 276.48 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +9.1% | dentro | 253.34 → 276.48 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | +6.0% | dentro | 260.94 → 276.48 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 282.79 → 283.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -1.7% | dentro | 288.60 → 283.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -1.8% | dentro | 288.80 → 283.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -4.5% | fuera | 297.23 → 283.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.7% | fuera | 294.50 → 283.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -3.4% | dentro | 293.80 → 283.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +0.8% | dentro | 281.50 → 283.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 271.97 → 283.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +4.4% | dentro | 271.75 → 283.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +4.8% | dentro | 270.85 → 283.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +7.3% | fuera | 264.48 → 283.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +9.1% | fuera | 260.11 → 283.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +9.8% | fuera | 258.43 → 283.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +7.8% | dentro | 263.31 → 283.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +7.9% | dentro | 262.91 → 283.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.8% | dentro | 270.75 → 283.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +9.0% | fuera | 260.30 → 283.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +8.9% | fuera | 260.60 → 283.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +10.1% | fuera | 257.81 → 283.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +9.9% | fuera | 258.24 → 283.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +9.3% | fuera | 259.71 → 283.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +11.8% | fuera | 253.74 → 283.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +10.3% | fuera | 257.18 → 283.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +12.0% | fuera | 253.34 → 283.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +8.7% | dentro | 260.94 → 283.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 293.80 → 293.80 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +4.4% | fuera | 281.50 → 293.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +8.0% | fuera | 271.97 → 293.80 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +8.1% | fuera | 271.75 → 293.80 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +8.5% | fuera | 270.85 → 293.80 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +11.1% | fuera | 264.48 → 293.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +13.0% | fuera | 260.11 → 293.80 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.