TWLO 预期波动历史 Twilio Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内47%
|实际值| 低于预期值47%
平均预期波动幅度±8.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度11.6%
平均绝对误差7.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 257.17 | ±5.9% | 241.97–272.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 242.61 | ±7.4% | 224.56–260.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 271.20 | ±7.3% | 251.40–291.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 282.00 | ±7.2% | 261.70–302.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 288.93 | ±8.2% | 265.23–312.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 275.23 | ±8.6% | 251.43–299.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 274.38 | ±9.1% | 249.33–299.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 280.20 | ±9.4% | 253.80–306.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 302.03 | ±10.0% | 271.78–332.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 294.58 | ±10.8% | 262.78–326.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 301.00 | ±11.6% | 265.95–336.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 285.00 | ±13.3% | 247.05–322.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 284.26 | ±13.3% | 246.31–322.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 259.71 | ±12.2% | 227.91–291.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 244.38 | ±12.3% | 214.28–274.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 243.65 | ±12.9% | 212.30–275.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 236.69 | ±13.3% | 205.29–268.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 242.78 | ±13.6% | 209.88–275.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 233.10 | ±13.4% | 201.95–264.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 230.00 | ±13.9% | 198.05–261.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 233.41 | ±14.2% | 200.36–266.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 227.21 | ±14.2% | 194.91–259.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 224.76 | ±14.5% | 192.11–257.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 232.98 | ±14.4% | 199.38–266.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 234.23 | ±14.6% | 200.08–268.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 240.91 | ±15.0% | 204.71–277.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 257.17 | ±15.2% | 218.02–296.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 242.61 | ±16.2% | 203.41–281.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 271.20 | ±15.8% | 228.30–314.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 282.00 | ±15.7% | 237.65–326.35 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 242.61 → 244.37 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -9.9% | 区间外 | 271.20 → 244.37 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -13.3% | 区间外 | 282.00 → 244.37 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -15.4% | 区间外 | 288.93 → 244.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 275.23 → 244.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -10.9% | 区间外 | 274.38 → 244.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 280.20 → 244.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 302.03 → 244.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -17.0% | 区间外 | 294.58 → 244.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -18.8% | 区间外 | 301.00 → 244.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 285.00 → 244.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -14.0% | 区间外 | 284.26 → 244.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 259.71 → 244.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 244.38 → 244.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 243.65 → 244.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 236.69 → 244.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 242.78 → 244.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 233.10 → 244.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +6.2% | 区间内 | 230.00 → 244.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 233.41 → 244.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 227.21 → 244.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | +8.7% | 区间内 | 224.76 → 244.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 232.98 → 244.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 234.23 → 244.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 240.91 → 244.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 227.18 → 244.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | +8.1% | 区间内 | 226.13 → 244.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 237.00 → 244.37 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 288.93 → 289.47 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +5.2% | 区间外 | 275.23 → 289.47 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 274.38 → 289.47 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 280.20 → 289.47 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 302.03 → 289.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 294.58 → 289.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 301.00 → 289.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 285.00 → 289.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 284.26 → 289.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +11.5% | 区间外 | 259.71 → 289.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +18.5% | 区间外 | 244.38 → 289.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +18.8% | 区间外 | 243.65 → 289.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +22.3% | 区间外 | 236.69 → 289.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +19.2% | 区间外 | 242.78 → 289.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +24.2% | 区间外 | 233.10 → 289.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +25.9% | 区间外 | 230.00 → 289.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | +24.0% | 区间外 | 233.41 → 289.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +27.4% | 区间外 | 227.21 → 289.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +28.8% | 区间外 | 224.76 → 289.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +24.2% | 区间外 | 232.98 → 289.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +23.6% | 区间外 | 234.23 → 289.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +20.2% | 区间外 | 240.91 → 289.47 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | +27.4% | 区间外 | 227.18 → 289.47 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +28.0% | 区间外 | 226.13 → 289.47 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +22.1% | 区间外 | 237.00 → 289.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 294.58 → 294.58 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 301.00 → 294.58 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 285.00 → 294.58 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 284.26 → 294.58 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +13.4% | 区间外 | 259.71 → 294.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +20.5% | 区间外 | 244.38 → 294.58 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +20.9% | 区间外 | 243.65 → 294.58 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.