TSLA historial de movimiento esperado Tesla, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango84%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado84%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.8%
Error medio abs.3.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 367.80 | ±0.2% | 367.20–368.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 352.77 | ±2.5% | 343.82–361.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 366.78 | ±3.7% | 353.13–380.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 374.70 | ±3.7% | 360.68–388.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 382.45 | ±4.5% | 365.07–399.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 374.86 | ±5.0% | 356.26–393.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 377.58 | ±5.2% | 357.93–397.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 379.87 | ±5.2% | 359.95–399.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 379.11 | ±5.9% | 356.61–401.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 367.80 | ±6.4% | 344.23–391.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 352.77 | ±7.5% | 326.47–379.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 366.78 | ±7.3% | 339.86–393.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 374.70 | ±7.2% | 347.90–401.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 382.45 | ±7.5% | 353.65–411.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 374.86 | ±7.9% | 345.08–404.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 377.58 | ±8.2% | 346.68–408.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 379.87 | ±8.2% | 348.72–411.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 379.11 | ±8.4% | 347.21–411.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 371.00 | ±8.6% | 339.02–402.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 354.89 | ±9.2% | 322.19–387.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 379.15 | ±10.4% | 339.60–418.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 378.76 | ±10.4% | 339.21–418.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 374.92 | ±10.6% | 335.12–414.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 364.26 | ±10.8% | 325.06–403.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 366.09 | ±11.2% | 325.17–407.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 358.30 | ±11.6% | 316.82–399.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 355.95 | ±11.5% | 315.07–396.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 359.50 | ±11.4% | 318.52–400.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 364.67 | ±11.7% | 322.14–407.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 363.75 | ±12.1% | 319.80–407.70 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.6% | dentro | 352.77 → 354.72 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -3.3% | fuera | 366.78 → 354.72 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -5.3% | fuera | 374.70 → 354.72 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -7.3% | fuera | 382.45 → 354.72 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -5.4% | fuera | 374.86 → 354.72 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -6.1% | fuera | 377.58 → 354.72 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -6.6% | fuera | 379.87 → 354.72 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -6.4% | fuera | 379.11 → 354.72 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -4.4% | dentro | 371.00 → 354.72 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 354.89 → 354.72 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -6.4% | dentro | 379.15 → 354.72 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -6.3% | dentro | 378.76 → 354.72 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -5.4% | dentro | 374.92 → 354.72 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 364.26 → 354.72 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -3.1% | dentro | 366.09 → 354.72 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -1.0% | dentro | 358.30 → 354.72 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 355.95 → 354.72 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 359.50 → 354.72 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -2.7% | dentro | 364.67 → 354.72 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 363.75 → 354.72 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -3.4% | dentro | 367.34 → 354.72 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -3.3% | dentro | 366.78 → 354.72 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | +0.5% | dentro | 352.89 → 354.72 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 353.42 → 354.72 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -6.2% | dentro | 378.34 → 354.72 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 355.80 → 354.72 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 355.32 → 354.72 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -3.4% | dentro | 367.11 → 354.72 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 366.78 → 367.16 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | fuera | 374.70 → 367.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.9% | -4.0% | fuera | 382.45 → 367.16 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | -2.1% | dentro | 374.86 → 367.16 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -2.8% | dentro | 377.58 → 367.16 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.0% | -3.3% | dentro | 379.87 → 367.16 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 379.11 → 367.16 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.0% | -1.0% | dentro | 371.00 → 367.16 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 354.89 → 367.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 382.45 → 378.03 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | +0.8% | dentro | 374.86 → 378.03 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 377.58 → 378.03 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 379.87 → 378.03 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.9% | -0.3% | dentro | 379.11 → 378.03 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.2% | +1.9% | dentro | 371.00 → 378.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.1% | +6.5% | fuera | 354.89 → 378.03 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 382.45 → 382.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +2.1% | fuera | 374.86 → 382.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +1.4% | dentro | 377.58 → 382.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 379.87 → 382.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 379.11 → 382.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +3.2% | dentro | 371.00 → 382.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.8% | fuera | 354.89 → 382.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +0.9% | dentro | 379.15 → 382.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.0% | dentro | 378.76 → 382.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 374.92 → 382.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +5.1% | dentro | 364.26 → 382.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +4.5% | dentro | 366.09 → 382.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +6.8% | dentro | 358.30 → 382.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +7.5% | dentro | 355.95 → 382.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +6.5% | dentro | 359.50 → 382.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +4.9% | dentro | 364.67 → 382.70 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.