TSLA historial de movimiento esperado Tesla, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas192
Cierre dentro del rango85%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado85%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.6%
Error medio abs.2.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 352.77 | ±0.6% | 350.63–354.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 366.78 | ±3.3% | 354.81–378.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 374.70 | ±3.4% | 361.95–387.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 382.45 | ±4.1% | 366.60–398.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 374.86 | ±4.6% | 357.56–392.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 377.58 | ±4.9% | 359.06–396.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 379.87 | ±5.0% | 360.80–398.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 379.11 | ±5.4% | 358.51–399.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 371.00 | ±5.8% | 349.60–392.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 354.89 | ±6.5% | 331.84–377.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 379.15 | ±8.3% | 347.85–410.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 378.76 | ±8.3% | 347.46–410.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 374.92 | ±8.5% | 343.05–406.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 364.26 | ±8.8% | 332.21–396.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 366.09 | ±9.2% | 332.42–399.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 358.30 | ±9.6% | 323.75–392.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 355.95 | ±9.6% | 321.82–390.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 359.50 | ±9.5% | 325.35–393.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 364.67 | ±9.7% | 329.32–400.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 363.75 | ±10.2% | 326.77–400.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 367.34 | ±10.6% | 328.31–406.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 366.78 | ±10.7% | 327.61–405.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 352.89 | ±10.9% | 314.49–391.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 353.42 | ±10.9% | 315.02–391.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 378.34 | ±11.8% | 333.79–422.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 355.80 | ±11.5% | 315.02–396.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 355.32 | ±11.4% | 314.75–395.89 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 367.11 | ±11.8% | 323.88–410.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 352.77 | ±2.5% | 343.82–361.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 366.78 | ±3.7% | 353.13–380.43 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 366.78 → 367.16 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | fuera | 374.70 → 367.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.9% | -4.0% | fuera | 382.45 → 367.16 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | -2.1% | dentro | 374.86 → 367.16 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -2.8% | dentro | 377.58 → 367.16 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.0% | -3.3% | dentro | 379.87 → 367.16 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 379.11 → 367.16 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.0% | -1.0% | dentro | 371.00 → 367.16 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 354.89 → 367.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 382.45 → 378.03 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | +0.8% | dentro | 374.86 → 378.03 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 377.58 → 378.03 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 379.87 → 378.03 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.9% | -0.3% | dentro | 379.11 → 378.03 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.2% | +1.9% | dentro | 371.00 → 378.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.1% | +6.5% | fuera | 354.89 → 378.03 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 382.45 → 382.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +2.1% | fuera | 374.86 → 382.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +1.4% | dentro | 377.58 → 382.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 379.87 → 382.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 379.11 → 382.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +3.2% | dentro | 371.00 → 382.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.8% | fuera | 354.89 → 382.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +0.9% | dentro | 379.15 → 382.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.0% | dentro | 378.76 → 382.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 374.92 → 382.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +5.1% | dentro | 364.26 → 382.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +4.5% | dentro | 366.09 → 382.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +6.8% | dentro | 358.30 → 382.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +7.5% | dentro | 355.95 → 382.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +6.5% | dentro | 359.50 → 382.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +4.9% | dentro | 364.67 → 382.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +5.2% | dentro | 363.75 → 382.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +4.2% | dentro | 367.34 → 382.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +4.3% | dentro | 366.78 → 382.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +8.4% | dentro | 352.89 → 382.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +8.3% | dentro | 353.42 → 382.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +1.2% | dentro | 378.34 → 382.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +7.6% | dentro | 355.80 → 382.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +7.7% | dentro | 355.32 → 382.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +4.2% | dentro | 367.11 → 382.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 377.58 → 377.81 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.5% | -0.5% | dentro | 379.87 → 377.81 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | dentro | 379.11 → 377.81 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | dentro | 371.00 → 377.81 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±4.1% | +6.5% | fuera | 354.89 → 377.81 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 379.11 → 378.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.8% | +2.1% | fuera | 371.00 → 378.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.2% | +6.7% | fuera | 354.89 → 378.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±6.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 379.15 → 378.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±6.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 378.76 → 378.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±6.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 374.92 → 378.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 371.00 → 370.59 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | +4.4% | fuera | 354.89 → 370.59 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.3% | dentro | 379.15 → 370.59 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 378.76 → 370.59 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -1.2% | dentro | 374.92 → 370.59 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +1.7% | dentro | 364.26 → 370.59 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | +1.2% | dentro | 366.09 → 370.59 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 358.30 → 370.59 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.