TOST 预期波动历史 Toast, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项115
收盘价处于区间内64%
|实际值| 低于预期值64%
平均预期波动幅度±6.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.5%
平均绝对误差2.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 31.60 | ±3.9% | 30.36–32.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 32.25 | ±4.8% | 30.71–33.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 29.75 | ±5.5% | 28.10–31.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 30.80 | ±5.7% | 29.03–32.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 31.20 | ±6.5% | 29.18–33.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 30.40 | ±7.1% | 28.25–32.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 31.03 | ±7.2% | 28.79–33.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 30.25 | ±7.4% | 28.01–32.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 29.96 | ±8.8% | 27.33–32.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 30.08 | ±8.9% | 27.41–32.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 29.00 | ±8.3% | 26.59–31.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 29.65 | ±10.1% | 26.67–32.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 29.65 | ±10.1% | 26.67–32.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 29.81 | ±9.9% | 26.85–32.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 30.16 | ±10.4% | 27.04–33.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 30.76 | ±10.3% | 27.61–33.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 31.12 | ±10.8% | 27.75–34.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 31.91 | ±11.2% | 28.34–35.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 33.50 | ±11.1% | 29.79–37.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 31.95 | ±11.7% | 28.23–35.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 32.69 | ±12.0% | 28.78–36.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 33.26 | ±12.0% | 29.27–37.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 33.95 | ±12.3% | 29.77–38.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 33.73 | ±12.1% | 29.64–37.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 33.80 | ±12.4% | 29.59–38.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 31.60 | ±6.2% | 29.63–33.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 32.25 | ±6.4% | 30.18–34.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 29.75 | ±7.0% | 27.66–31.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 30.80 | ±6.9% | 28.66–32.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 31.20 | ±7.9% | 28.72–33.68 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | 区间外 | 32.25 → 31.62 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 29.75 → 31.62 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 30.80 → 31.62 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 31.20 → 31.62 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 30.40 → 31.62 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 31.03 → 31.62 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 30.25 → 31.62 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +5.5% | 区间内 | 29.96 → 31.62 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 30.08 → 31.62 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 29.00 → 31.62 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 29.65 → 31.62 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 29.65 → 31.62 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 29.81 → 31.62 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 30.16 → 31.62 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 30.76 → 31.62 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 31.12 → 31.62 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 31.91 → 31.62 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 33.50 → 31.62 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 31.95 → 31.62 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 32.69 → 31.62 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 33.26 → 31.62 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -6.9% | 区间内 | 33.95 → 31.62 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 33.73 → 31.62 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 33.80 → 31.62 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 33.67 → 31.62 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 33.64 → 31.62 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -7.3% | 区间内 | 34.12 → 31.62 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 31.20 → 31.31 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 30.40 → 31.31 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 31.03 → 31.31 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +3.5% | 区间外 | 30.25 → 31.31 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 29.96 → 31.31 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 30.08 → 31.31 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 29.00 → 31.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 29.65 → 31.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 29.65 → 31.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 29.81 → 31.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 30.16 → 31.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 30.76 → 31.31 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 31.12 → 31.31 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 31.91 → 31.31 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 33.50 → 31.31 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 31.95 → 31.31 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 32.69 → 31.31 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 33.26 → 31.31 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 33.95 → 31.31 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -7.2% | 区间内 | 33.73 → 31.31 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 33.80 → 31.31 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 33.67 → 31.31 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -6.9% | 区间内 | 33.64 → 31.31 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -8.2% | 区间内 | 34.12 → 31.31 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 30.08 → 29.79 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 29.00 → 29.79 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 29.65 → 29.79 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 29.65 → 29.79 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 29.81 → 29.79 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 30.16 → 29.79 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 30.76 → 29.79 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 31.12 → 29.79 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 31.91 → 29.79 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.