TOST histórico de movimento esperado Toast, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas115
Fechar dentro do intervalo64%
|Real| abaixo do esperado64%
Movimento esperado médio±6.8%
Movimento |real| médio5.5%
Erro médio absoluto2.9pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | Oct 23 | 3 | 32.65 | ±3.6% | 31.46–33.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 31.60 | ±3.9% | 30.36–32.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 32.25 | ±4.8% | 30.71–33.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 29.75 | ±5.5% | 28.10–31.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 30.80 | ±5.7% | 29.03–32.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 31.20 | ±6.5% | 29.18–33.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 30.40 | ±7.1% | 28.25–32.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 31.03 | ±7.2% | 28.79–33.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 30.25 | ±7.4% | 28.01–32.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 29.96 | ±8.8% | 27.33–32.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 30.08 | ±8.9% | 27.41–32.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 29.00 | ±8.3% | 26.59–31.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 29.65 | ±10.1% | 26.67–32.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 29.65 | ±10.1% | 26.67–32.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 29.81 | ±9.9% | 26.85–32.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 30.16 | ±10.4% | 27.04–33.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 30.76 | ±10.3% | 27.61–33.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 31.12 | ±10.8% | 27.75–34.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 31.91 | ±11.2% | 28.34–35.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 33.50 | ±11.1% | 29.79–37.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 31.95 | ±11.7% | 28.23–35.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 32.69 | ±12.0% | 28.78–36.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 33.26 | ±12.0% | 29.27–37.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 33.95 | ±12.3% | 29.77–38.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 33.73 | ±12.1% | 29.64–37.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 33.80 | ±12.4% | 29.59–38.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 20 | Oct 30 | 10 | 32.65 | ±6.0% | 30.70–34.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 31.60 | ±6.2% | 29.63–33.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 32.25 | ±6.4% | 30.18–34.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 29.75 | ±7.0% | 27.66–31.84 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | fora | 32.25 → 31.62 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +6.3% | fora | 29.75 → 31.62 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +2.7% | dentro | 30.80 → 31.62 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +1.3% | dentro | 31.20 → 31.62 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +4.0% | dentro | 30.40 → 31.62 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +1.9% | dentro | 31.03 → 31.62 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +4.5% | dentro | 30.25 → 31.62 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +5.5% | dentro | 29.96 → 31.62 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +5.1% | dentro | 30.08 → 31.62 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +9.0% | fora | 29.00 → 31.62 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 29.65 → 31.62 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 29.65 → 31.62 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +6.1% | dentro | 29.81 → 31.62 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +4.8% | dentro | 30.16 → 31.62 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +2.8% | dentro | 30.76 → 31.62 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 31.12 → 31.62 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 31.91 → 31.62 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -5.6% | dentro | 33.50 → 31.62 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -1.0% | dentro | 31.95 → 31.62 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -3.3% | dentro | 32.69 → 31.62 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 33.26 → 31.62 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -6.9% | dentro | 33.95 → 31.62 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -6.2% | dentro | 33.73 → 31.62 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -6.5% | dentro | 33.80 → 31.62 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -6.1% | dentro | 33.67 → 31.62 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -6.0% | dentro | 33.64 → 31.62 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -7.3% | dentro | 34.12 → 31.62 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 31.20 → 31.31 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.0% | fora | 30.40 → 31.31 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | dentro | 31.03 → 31.31 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +3.5% | fora | 30.25 → 31.31 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +4.5% | fora | 29.96 → 31.31 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +4.1% | dentro | 30.08 → 31.31 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +8.0% | fora | 29.00 → 31.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | dentro | 29.65 → 31.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | dentro | 29.65 → 31.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.0% | dentro | 29.81 → 31.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +3.8% | dentro | 30.16 → 31.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +1.8% | dentro | 30.76 → 31.31 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +0.6% | dentro | 31.12 → 31.31 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 31.91 → 31.31 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -6.5% | dentro | 33.50 → 31.31 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.0% | dentro | 31.95 → 31.31 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -4.2% | dentro | 32.69 → 31.31 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -5.9% | dentro | 33.26 → 31.31 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -7.8% | dentro | 33.95 → 31.31 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -7.2% | dentro | 33.73 → 31.31 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -7.4% | dentro | 33.80 → 31.31 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -7.0% | dentro | 33.67 → 31.31 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -6.9% | dentro | 33.64 → 31.31 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -8.2% | dentro | 34.12 → 31.31 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 30.08 → 29.79 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +2.7% | dentro | 29.00 → 29.79 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 29.65 → 29.79 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 29.65 → 29.79 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -0.1% | dentro | 29.81 → 29.79 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 30.16 → 29.79 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 30.76 → 29.79 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -4.3% | dentro | 31.12 → 29.79 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 31.91 → 29.79 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.