TOST historial de movimiento esperado Toast, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas88
Cierre dentro del rango57%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado57%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.8%
Error medio abs.2.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 32.25 | ±1.6% | 31.74–32.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 29.75 | ±3.1% | 28.84–30.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 30.80 | ±3.5% | 29.73–31.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 31.20 | ±4.4% | 29.84–32.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 30.40 | ±5.2% | 28.82–31.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 31.03 | ±5.5% | 29.34–32.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 30.25 | ±5.6% | 28.55–31.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 29.96 | ±6.5% | 28.00–31.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 30.08 | ±6.7% | 28.05–32.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 29.00 | ±7.6% | 26.79–31.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 29.65 | ±8.8% | 27.05–32.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 29.65 | ±8.8% | 27.05–32.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 29.81 | ±8.9% | 27.16–32.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 30.16 | ±9.1% | 27.42–32.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 30.76 | ±9.0% | 28.00–33.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 31.12 | ±10.4% | 27.89–34.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 31.91 | ±10.0% | 28.71–35.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 33.50 | ±10.0% | 30.15–36.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 31.95 | ±10.4% | 28.62–35.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 32.69 | ±11.1% | 29.07–36.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 33.26 | ±11.6% | 29.41–37.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 33.95 | ±11.3% | 30.13–37.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 33.73 | ±11.5% | 29.84–37.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 33.80 | ±11.4% | 29.95–37.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 33.67 | ±12.0% | 29.61–37.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 33.64 | ±11.9% | 29.64–37.63 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 34.12 | ±11.9% | 30.07–38.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 32.25 | ±4.8% | 30.71–33.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 29.75 | ±5.5% | 28.10–31.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 30.80 | ±5.7% | 29.03–32.56 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 31.20 → 31.31 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.0% | fuera | 30.40 → 31.31 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | dentro | 31.03 → 31.31 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +3.5% | fuera | 30.25 → 31.31 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +4.5% | fuera | 29.96 → 31.31 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +4.1% | dentro | 30.08 → 31.31 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +8.0% | fuera | 29.00 → 31.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | dentro | 29.65 → 31.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | dentro | 29.65 → 31.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.0% | dentro | 29.81 → 31.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +3.8% | dentro | 30.16 → 31.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +1.8% | dentro | 30.76 → 31.31 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +0.6% | dentro | 31.12 → 31.31 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 31.91 → 31.31 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -6.5% | dentro | 33.50 → 31.31 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.0% | dentro | 31.95 → 31.31 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -4.2% | dentro | 32.69 → 31.31 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -5.9% | dentro | 33.26 → 31.31 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -7.8% | dentro | 33.95 → 31.31 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -7.2% | dentro | 33.73 → 31.31 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -7.4% | dentro | 33.80 → 31.31 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -7.0% | dentro | 33.67 → 31.31 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -6.9% | dentro | 33.64 → 31.31 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -8.2% | dentro | 34.12 → 31.31 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 30.08 → 29.79 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +2.7% | dentro | 29.00 → 29.79 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 29.65 → 29.79 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 29.65 → 29.79 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -0.1% | dentro | 29.81 → 29.79 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 30.16 → 29.79 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 30.76 → 29.79 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -4.3% | dentro | 31.12 → 29.79 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 31.91 → 29.79 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -11.1% | fuera | 33.50 → 29.79 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -6.8% | dentro | 31.95 → 29.79 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -8.9% | fuera | 32.69 → 29.79 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.9% | -10.4% | fuera | 33.26 → 29.79 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -12.3% | fuera | 33.95 → 29.79 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -11.7% | fuera | 33.73 → 29.79 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -11.9% | fuera | 33.80 → 29.79 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | -11.5% | fuera | 33.67 → 29.79 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -11.4% | fuera | 33.64 → 29.79 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | -12.7% | fuera | 34.12 → 29.79 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +3.2% | dentro | 29.65 → 30.60 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +3.2% | dentro | 29.65 → 30.60 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | +2.6% | dentro | 29.81 → 30.60 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | +1.4% | dentro | 30.16 → 30.60 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -0.5% | dentro | 30.76 → 30.60 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -1.7% | dentro | 31.12 → 30.60 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -4.1% | dentro | 31.91 → 30.60 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -8.7% | fuera | 33.50 → 30.60 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | -4.2% | dentro | 31.95 → 30.60 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -6.4% | dentro | 32.69 → 30.60 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | -8.0% | fuera | 33.26 → 30.60 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | -9.9% | fuera | 33.95 → 30.60 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | -9.3% | fuera | 33.73 → 30.60 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | -9.5% | fuera | 33.80 → 30.60 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | -9.1% | fuera | 33.67 → 30.60 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | -9.0% | fuera | 33.64 → 30.60 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.5% | -10.3% | fuera | 34.12 → 30.60 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.