TMUS 预期波动历史 T-Mobile US, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内30%
|实际值| 低于预期值30%
平均预期波动幅度±4.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.8%
平均绝对误差4.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 156.30 | ±3.9% | 150.20–162.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 159.10 | ±4.3% | 152.25–165.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 157.10 | ±4.3% | 150.35–163.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 153.73 | ±4.6% | 146.68–160.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 148.73 | ±6.1% | 139.73–157.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 159.90 | ±7.9% | 147.30–172.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 167.20 | ±5.0% | 158.90–175.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 165.93 | ±5.6% | 156.63–175.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 163.01 | ±5.4% | 154.21–171.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 163.64 | ±5.7% | 154.29–172.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 161.80 | ±5.8% | 152.40–171.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 162.65 | ±7.4% | 150.65–174.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 162.65 | ±7.4% | 150.65–174.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 165.62 | ±7.5% | 153.27–177.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 168.46 | ±7.5% | 155.81–181.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 167.91 | ±7.9% | 154.62–181.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 174.65 | ±8.8% | 159.30–190.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 180.47 | ±8.8% | 164.67–196.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 183.35 | ±8.6% | 167.60–199.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 182.82 | ±9.0% | 166.38–199.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 175.18 | ±8.5% | 160.23–190.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 178.56 | ±9.1% | 162.31–194.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 182.49 | ±9.3% | 165.54–199.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 182.49 | ±9.3% | 165.44–199.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 187.06 | ±9.5% | 169.31–204.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 189.00 | ±9.3% | 171.45–206.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 156.30 | ±6.4% | 146.25–166.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 159.10 | ±6.6% | 148.55–169.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 157.10 | ±7.3% | 145.70–168.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 153.73 | ±7.8% | 141.73–165.73 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 159.10 → 159.10 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 157.10 → 159.10 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +3.5% | 区间外 | 153.73 → 159.10 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 148.73 → 159.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 159.90 → 159.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 167.20 → 159.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -4.1% | 区间外 | 165.93 → 159.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 163.01 → 159.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 163.64 → 159.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 161.80 → 159.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 162.65 → 159.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 162.65 → 159.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 165.62 → 159.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 168.46 → 159.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 167.91 → 159.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 174.65 → 159.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -11.8% | 区间外 | 180.47 → 159.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -13.2% | 区间外 | 183.35 → 159.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 182.82 → 159.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -9.2% | 区间外 | 175.18 → 159.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -10.9% | 区间外 | 178.56 → 159.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 182.49 → 159.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 182.49 → 159.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -14.9% | 区间外 | 187.06 → 159.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -15.8% | 区间外 | 189.00 → 159.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -14.8% | 区间外 | 186.65 → 159.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 182.67 → 159.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 181.22 → 159.10 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 148.73 → 148.58 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 159.90 → 148.58 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -11.1% | 区间外 | 167.20 → 148.58 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -10.5% | 区间外 | 165.93 → 148.58 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 163.01 → 148.58 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -9.2% | 区间外 | 163.64 → 148.58 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 161.80 → 148.58 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 162.65 → 148.58 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 162.65 → 148.58 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 165.62 → 148.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -11.8% | 区间外 | 168.46 → 148.58 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -11.5% | 区间外 | 167.91 → 148.58 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -14.9% | 区间外 | 174.65 → 148.58 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -17.7% | 区间外 | 180.47 → 148.58 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -19.0% | 区间外 | 183.35 → 148.58 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -18.7% | 区间外 | 182.82 → 148.58 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -15.2% | 区间外 | 175.18 → 148.58 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -16.8% | 区间外 | 178.56 → 148.58 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -18.6% | 区间外 | 182.49 → 148.58 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -18.6% | 区间外 | 182.49 → 148.58 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -20.6% | 区间外 | 187.06 → 148.58 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -21.4% | 区间外 | 189.00 → 148.58 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -20.4% | 区间外 | 186.65 → 148.58 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -18.7% | 区间外 | 182.67 → 148.58 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -18.0% | 区间外 | 181.22 → 148.58 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.8% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 163.64 → 163.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 161.80 → 163.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 162.65 → 163.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 162.65 → 163.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 165.62 → 163.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 168.46 → 163.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 167.91 → 163.64 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.