TAP historial de movimiento esperado Molson Coors Beverage Company
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango60%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado60%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.9%
Error medio abs.3.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 39.33 | ±8.6% | 35.93–42.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 39.52 | ±8.7% | 36.09–42.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 38.36 | ±9.4% | 34.73–41.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 38.52 | ±9.4% | 34.90–42.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 37.20 | ±9.2% | 33.77–40.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 37.93 | ±9.7% | 34.26–41.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 36.95 | ±10.0% | 33.25–40.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 36.91 | ±9.7% | 33.34–40.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 36.52 | ±9.7% | 32.99–40.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 36.55 | ±10.1% | 32.85–40.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 37.11 | ±10.4% | 33.23–40.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 36.99 | ±10.9% | 32.97–41.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 37.05 | ±10.9% | 33.03–41.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 37.61 | ±10.6% | 33.61–41.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 38.16 | ±11.1% | 33.94–42.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 39.23 | ±11.0% | 34.93–43.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 39.21 | ±11.3% | 34.76–43.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 38.92 | ±11.7% | 34.37–43.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 38.93 | ±11.3% | 34.53–43.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 38.44 | ±12.1% | 33.79–43.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 38.48 | ±12.5% | 33.68–43.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 39.10 | ±12.3% | 34.30–43.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 39.10 | ±12.3% | 34.30–43.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 40.50 | ±12.2% | 35.58–45.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 40.57 | ±12.0% | 35.70–45.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 40.54 | ±12.3% | 35.54–45.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 39.73 | ±12.2% | 34.88–44.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 39.73 | ±12.2% | 34.88–44.58 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 40.40 | ±12.4% | 35.38–45.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 39.33 | ±10.9% | 35.05–43.60 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 39.52 → 39.52 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +3.0% | dentro | 38.36 → 39.52 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +2.6% | dentro | 38.52 → 39.52 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +6.2% | fuera | 37.20 → 39.52 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +4.2% | fuera | 37.93 → 39.52 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +7.0% | fuera | 36.95 → 39.52 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +7.1% | fuera | 36.91 → 39.52 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +8.2% | fuera | 36.52 → 39.52 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +8.1% | fuera | 36.55 → 39.52 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +6.5% | fuera | 37.11 → 39.52 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +6.8% | fuera | 36.99 → 39.52 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +6.7% | fuera | 37.05 → 39.52 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +5.1% | dentro | 37.61 → 39.52 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +3.6% | dentro | 38.16 → 39.52 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +0.7% | dentro | 39.23 → 39.52 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +0.8% | dentro | 39.21 → 39.52 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +1.5% | dentro | 38.92 → 39.52 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 38.93 → 39.52 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +2.8% | dentro | 38.44 → 39.52 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +2.7% | dentro | 38.48 → 39.52 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +1.1% | dentro | 39.10 → 39.52 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +1.1% | dentro | 39.10 → 39.52 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -2.4% | dentro | 40.50 → 39.52 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -2.6% | dentro | 40.57 → 39.52 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 40.54 → 39.52 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 39.73 → 39.52 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 39.73 → 39.52 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 40.40 → 39.52 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | -1.7% | dentro | 38.16 → 37.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | -4.3% | fuera | 39.23 → 37.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -4.3% | fuera | 39.21 → 37.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | -3.6% | dentro | 38.92 → 37.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | -3.6% | dentro | 38.93 → 37.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -2.4% | dentro | 38.44 → 37.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -2.5% | dentro | 38.48 → 37.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -4.0% | dentro | 39.10 → 37.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -4.0% | dentro | 39.10 → 37.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.7% | -7.3% | fuera | 40.50 → 37.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.9% | -7.5% | fuera | 40.57 → 37.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.9% | -7.4% | fuera | 40.54 → 37.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.0% | -5.5% | fuera | 39.73 → 37.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.0% | -5.5% | fuera | 39.73 → 37.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.3% | -7.1% | fuera | 40.40 → 37.53 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.