TAN historial de movimiento esperado Invesco Solar ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango51%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado51%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.9%
Error medio abs.1.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 41.31 | ±9.8% | 37.26–45.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 41.84 | ±10.2% | 37.56–46.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 42.64 | ±10.6% | 38.12–47.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 44.38 | ±10.9% | 39.55–49.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 43.65 | ±11.1% | 38.83–48.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 43.32 | ±11.0% | 38.57–48.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 43.52 | ±11.3% | 38.62–48.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 44.38 | ±11.2% | 39.43–49.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 43.67 | ±11.7% | 38.55–48.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 44.07 | ±11.7% | 38.92–49.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 43.07 | ±11.6% | 38.09–48.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 46.50 | ±12.4% | 40.73–52.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 46.55 | ±12.5% | 40.72–52.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 45.66 | ±12.6% | 39.88–51.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 46.36 | ±12.8% | 40.41–52.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 46.47 | ±12.8% | 40.52–52.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 45.13 | ±13.2% | 39.18–51.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 46.22 | ±13.7% | 39.87–52.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 47.15 | ±13.4% | 40.83–53.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 47.37 | ±13.6% | 40.95–53.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 47.74 | ±13.8% | 41.16–54.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 49.13 | ±13.7% | 42.41–55.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 47.76 | ±14.1% | 41.01–54.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 47.76 | ±14.1% | 41.01–54.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 48.11 | ±14.1% | 41.31–54.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 47.57 | ±14.6% | 40.62–54.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 47.57 | ±14.6% | 40.62–54.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 47.57 | ±14.6% | 40.62–54.52 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 48.65 | ±14.4% | 41.65–55.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 41.31 | ±13.0% | 35.94–46.69 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 41.84 → 41.85 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -1.9% | dentro | 42.64 → 41.85 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -5.7% | fuera | 44.38 → 41.85 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -4.1% | fuera | 43.65 → 41.85 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -3.4% | dentro | 43.32 → 41.85 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -3.8% | dentro | 43.52 → 41.85 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -5.7% | fuera | 44.38 → 41.85 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -4.2% | dentro | 43.67 → 41.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -5.0% | dentro | 44.07 → 41.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -2.8% | dentro | 43.07 → 41.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -10.0% | fuera | 46.50 → 41.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -10.1% | fuera | 46.55 → 41.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -8.3% | fuera | 45.66 → 41.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -9.7% | fuera | 46.36 → 41.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -9.9% | fuera | 46.47 → 41.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -7.3% | dentro | 45.13 → 41.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -9.5% | fuera | 46.22 → 41.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -11.2% | fuera | 47.15 → 41.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -11.7% | fuera | 47.37 → 41.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -12.3% | fuera | 47.74 → 41.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -14.8% | fuera | 49.13 → 41.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -12.4% | fuera | 47.76 → 41.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -12.4% | fuera | 47.76 → 41.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -13.0% | fuera | 48.11 → 41.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -12.0% | fuera | 47.57 → 41.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -12.0% | fuera | 47.57 → 41.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -12.0% | fuera | 47.57 → 41.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -14.0% | fuera | 48.65 → 41.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.1% | -1.5% | dentro | 46.36 → 45.66 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 46.47 → 45.66 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | +1.2% | dentro | 45.13 → 45.66 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 46.22 → 45.66 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.1% | -3.2% | dentro | 47.15 → 45.66 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -3.6% | dentro | 47.37 → 45.66 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.0% | -4.4% | dentro | 47.74 → 45.66 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.3% | -7.1% | fuera | 49.13 → 45.66 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -4.4% | dentro | 47.76 → 45.66 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -4.4% | dentro | 47.76 → 45.66 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -5.1% | dentro | 48.11 → 45.66 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -4.0% | dentro | 47.57 → 45.66 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -4.0% | dentro | 47.57 → 45.66 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -4.0% | dentro | 47.57 → 45.66 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.7% | -6.1% | dentro | 48.65 → 45.66 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.