STZ histórico de movimento esperado Constellation Brands, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo40%
|Real| abaixo do esperado40%
Movimento esperado médio±5.2%
Movimento |real| médio6.1%
Erro médio absoluto3.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 131.12 | ±2.6% | 127.77–134.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 131.20 | ±3.3% | 126.85–135.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 127.41 | ±4.6% | 121.58–133.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 127.06 | ±3.8% | 122.21–131.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 122.60 | ±4.2% | 117.40–127.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 123.53 | ±4.5% | 118.00–129.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 118.39 | ±5.1% | 112.34–124.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 110.39 | ±8.7% | 100.84–119.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 113.50 | ±6.9% | 105.65–121.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 112.87 | ±7.3% | 104.62–121.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 112.50 | ±7.8% | 103.78–121.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 117.59 | ±8.3% | 107.79–127.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 118.39 | ±8.3% | 108.54–128.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 118.52 | ±8.5% | 108.47–128.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 120.30 | ±8.5% | 110.10–130.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 123.01 | ±9.1% | 111.81–134.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 123.51 | ±8.7% | 112.71–134.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 125.00 | ±8.6% | 114.30–135.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 123.65 | ±9.1% | 112.40–134.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 123.02 | ±9.0% | 111.97–134.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 123.23 | ±9.3% | 111.73–134.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 121.55 | ±9.2% | 110.40–132.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 121.50 | ±9.5% | 109.90–133.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 128.18 | ±9.4% | 116.08–140.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 128.90 | ±9.2% | 117.00–140.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 129.34 | ±9.2% | 117.39–141.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 131.12 | ±4.6% | 125.05–137.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 131.20 | ±4.8% | 124.88–137.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 127.41 | ±5.1% | 120.94–133.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 127.06 | ±5.1% | 120.56–133.56 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 131.20 → 131.35 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +3.1% | fora | 127.41 → 131.35 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +3.4% | fora | 127.06 → 131.35 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +7.1% | fora | 122.60 → 131.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +6.3% | fora | 123.53 → 131.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +10.9% | fora | 118.39 → 131.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +19.0% | fora | 110.39 → 131.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +15.7% | fora | 113.50 → 131.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +16.4% | fora | 112.87 → 131.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +16.8% | fora | 112.50 → 131.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +11.7% | fora | 117.59 → 131.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +10.9% | fora | 118.39 → 131.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +10.8% | fora | 118.52 → 131.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +9.2% | fora | 120.30 → 131.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +6.8% | dentro | 123.01 → 131.35 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +6.3% | dentro | 123.51 → 131.35 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +5.1% | dentro | 125.00 → 131.35 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +6.2% | dentro | 123.65 → 131.35 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +6.8% | dentro | 123.02 → 131.35 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +6.6% | dentro | 123.23 → 131.35 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +8.1% | dentro | 121.55 → 131.35 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +8.1% | dentro | 121.50 → 131.35 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +2.5% | dentro | 128.18 → 131.35 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +1.9% | dentro | 128.90 → 131.35 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +1.6% | dentro | 129.34 → 131.35 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 129.70 → 131.35 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 131.12 → 131.35 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 130.92 → 131.35 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 122.60 → 122.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 123.53 → 122.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.6% | fora | 118.39 → 122.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +11.1% | fora | 110.39 → 122.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +8.1% | fora | 113.50 → 122.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +8.7% | fora | 112.87 → 122.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +9.0% | fora | 112.50 → 122.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +4.3% | dentro | 117.59 → 122.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +3.6% | dentro | 118.39 → 122.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +3.5% | dentro | 118.52 → 122.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.9% | dentro | 120.30 → 122.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 123.01 → 122.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 123.51 → 122.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -1.9% | dentro | 125.00 → 122.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -0.8% | dentro | 123.65 → 122.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -0.3% | dentro | 123.02 → 122.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 123.23 → 122.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 121.55 → 122.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 121.50 → 122.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -4.3% | dentro | 128.18 → 122.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -4.9% | dentro | 128.90 → 122.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.2% | dentro | 129.34 → 122.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -5.4% | dentro | 129.70 → 122.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.5% | dentro | 131.12 → 122.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -6.3% | dentro | 130.92 → 122.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 112.87 → 112.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 112.50 → 112.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -4.0% | fora | 117.59 → 112.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -4.7% | fora | 118.39 → 112.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -4.8% | fora | 118.52 → 112.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -6.2% | fora | 120.30 → 112.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -8.2% | fora | 123.01 → 112.87 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.