SPX riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan S&P 500 Index
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan200
Tutup dalam rentang84%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi84%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±2.2%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|1.3%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut1.0pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 7,659.44 | ±0.0% | 7,658.34–7,660.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 7,718.94 | ±0.8% | 7,653.99–7,783.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 7,805.45 | ±0.8% | 7,740.20–7,870.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 7,811.54 | ±1.1% | 7,729.44–7,893.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 7,765.36 | ±1.3% | 7,666.26–7,864.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 7,801.77 | ±1.3% | 7,697.32–7,906.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 7,818.93 | ±1.4% | 7,707.73–7,930.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 7,773.95 | ±1.6% | 7,652.90–7,895.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 7,722.72 | ±1.8% | 7,586.02–7,859.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 7,666.45 | ±2.1% | 7,503.40–7,829.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 7,764.64 | ±2.3% | 7,583.84–7,945.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 7,764.64 | ±2.3% | 7,583.64–7,945.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 7,764.70 | ±2.5% | 7,570.80–7,958.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 7,650.50 | ±2.7% | 7,446.85–7,854.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 7,637.76 | ±2.8% | 7,423.46–7,852.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 7,551.81 | ±3.3% | 7,302.31–7,801.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 7,585.73 | ±3.3% | 7,336.98–7,834.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 7,619.98 | ±3.2% | 7,372.88–7,867.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 7,656.98 | ±3.2% | 7,412.63–7,901.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 7,591.70 | ±3.7% | 7,311.90–7,871.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 7,636.36 | ±3.5% | 7,371.11–7,901.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 7,673.52 | ±3.4% | 7,415.82–7,931.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 7,718.60 | ±3.3% | 7,464.15–7,973.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 7,718.60 | ±3.3% | 7,461.95–7,975.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 7,747.71 | ±3.4% | 7,487.21–8,008.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 7,666.60 | ±3.6% | 7,392.35–7,940.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 7,631.47 | ±3.8% | 7,341.42–7,921.52 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 7,686.14 | ±3.6% | 7,409.74–7,962.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 7,659.44 | ±0.8% | 7,598.09–7,720.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 7,718.94 | ±1.0% | 7,640.89–7,796.99 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | di dalam | 7,718.94 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.7% | -0.8% | di luar | 7,805.45 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.9% | -0.9% | di dalam | 7,811.54 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.1% | -0.3% | di dalam | 7,765.36 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.2% | -0.7% | di dalam | 7,801.77 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.3% | -1.0% | di dalam | 7,818.93 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.4% | -0.4% | di dalam | 7,773.95 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.7% | +0.3% | di dalam | 7,722.72 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.0% | +1.0% | di dalam | 7,666.45 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | di dalam | 7,764.64 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | di dalam | 7,764.64 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.4% | -0.3% | di dalam | 7,764.70 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.6% | +1.2% | di dalam | 7,650.50 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.7% | +1.4% | di dalam | 7,637.76 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.2% | +2.5% | di dalam | 7,551.81 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.2% | +2.1% | di dalam | 7,585.73 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.2% | +1.6% | di dalam | 7,619.98 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.1% | +1.1% | di dalam | 7,656.98 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.6% | +2.0% | di dalam | 7,591.70 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.4% | +1.4% | di dalam | 7,636.36 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.3% | +0.9% | di dalam | 7,673.52 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.6% | +0.3% | di dalam | 7,718.60 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.0% | +0.0% | di dalam | 7,718.94 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.5% | -1.1% | di luar | 7,805.45 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.8% | -1.2% | di luar | 7,811.54 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.0% | -0.6% | di dalam | 7,765.36 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.1% | -1.1% | di dalam | 7,801.77 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.2% | -1.3% | di luar | 7,818.93 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.3% | -0.7% | di dalam | 7,773.95 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -0.0% | di dalam | 7,722.72 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | +0.7% | di dalam | 7,666.45 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.2% | -0.6% | di dalam | 7,764.64 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.2% | -0.6% | di dalam | 7,764.64 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.3% | -0.6% | di dalam | 7,764.70 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.5% | +0.9% | di dalam | 7,650.50 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.6% | +1.1% | di dalam | 7,637.76 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | +2.2% | di dalam | 7,551.81 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | di dalam | 7,585.73 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | +1.3% | di dalam | 7,619.98 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | +0.8% | di dalam | 7,656.98 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.5% | +1.7% | di dalam | 7,591.70 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +1.1% | di dalam | 7,636.36 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.2% | +0.6% | di dalam | 7,673.52 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | +0.0% | di dalam | 7,718.60 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.2% | +0.0% | di dalam | 7,718.60 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.0% | +0.0% | di dalam | 7,805.45 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.6% | -0.1% | di dalam | 7,811.54 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.8% | +0.5% | di dalam | 7,765.36 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | di dalam | 7,801.77 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.0% | -0.2% | di dalam | 7,818.93 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.2% | +0.4% | di dalam | 7,773.95 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.4% | +1.1% | di dalam | 7,722.72 → 7,805.45 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.8% | +1.8% | di luar | 7,666.45 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.0% | +0.5% | di dalam | 7,764.64 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.1% | +0.5% | di dalam | 7,764.64 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.2% | +0.5% | di dalam | 7,764.70 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.4% | +2.0% | di dalam | 7,650.50 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.5% | +2.2% | di dalam | 7,637.76 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.0% | +3.4% | di luar | 7,551.81 → 7,805.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.0% | +2.9% | di dalam | 7,585.73 → 7,805.45 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.