SPX Verlauf der erwarteten Kursbewegung S&P 500 Index
Jeden Handelstag nach Börsenschluss erfassen wir, was der Optionsmarkt je Verfallstermin einpreiste – bevor das Ergebnis bekannt war. Sobald ein Verfallstermin verstrichen ist, wird das tatsächliche Ergebnis neben der ursprünglichen Schätzung eingetragen. Schätzungen werden nachträglich nie revidiert. Wie diese Statistiken zu lesen sind · Aufzeichnung seit Aug 31, 2026
Vergleiche aufgelöst200
Schluss innerhalb der Spanne86%
|Ist| unter Erwartung86%
Durchschn. erwartete Bewegung±2.2%
Durchschn. |tatsächliche| Bewegung1.2%
Mittl. abs. Fehler1.1pt
Impliziert vs. realisiert, nach Verfall
Für jeden Verfallstermin: Der gelbe Rahmen zeigt die erwartete Bewegung, die am nächsten vor dem Verfall erfasst wurde; der ausgefüllte Balken zeigt die tatsächliche Kursbewegung. Vorzeichenbehaftete Werte sind unter den Balken abgedruckt.
erwartet (aufgezeichnet)tatsächlich
Derzeit erfasst (Ergebnis ausstehend)
| Momentaufnahme | Läuft ab | DTE | Kurs damals | Erwartete Bewegung | Bereich | Methode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 7,659.44 | ±0.8% | 7,598.09–7,720.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 7,718.94 | ±1.0% | 7,640.89–7,796.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 7,805.45 | ±1.0% | 7,730.10–7,880.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 7,811.54 | ±1.2% | 7,719.99–7,903.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 7,765.36 | ±1.4% | 7,656.96–7,873.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 7,801.77 | ±1.5% | 7,688.37–7,915.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 7,818.93 | ±1.5% | 7,698.73–7,939.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 7,773.95 | ±1.7% | 7,644.40–7,903.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 19 | 17 | 7,722.72 | ±1.9% | 7,577.32–7,868.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 19 | 18 | 7,666.45 | ±2.2% | 7,495.00–7,837.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 19 | 26 | 7,764.64 | ±2.4% | 7,575.09–7,954.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 19 | 27 | 7,764.64 | ±2.4% | 7,575.04–7,954.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 19 | 28 | 7,764.70 | ±2.6% | 7,565.00–7,964.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 19 | 31 | 7,650.50 | ±2.8% | 7,439.50–7,861.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 19 | 32 | 7,637.76 | ±2.9% | 7,416.41–7,859.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 19 | 33 | 7,551.81 | ±3.4% | 7,295.61–7,808.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 19 | 34 | 7,585.73 | ±3.3% | 7,331.88–7,839.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 19 | 35 | 7,619.98 | ±3.3% | 7,367.68–7,872.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 19 | 38 | 7,656.98 | ±3.3% | 7,404.98–7,908.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 19 | 39 | 7,591.70 | ±3.7% | 7,308.60–7,874.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 20 | 1 | 7,690.73 | ±0.5% | 7,648.63–7,732.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 20 | 4 | 7,659.44 | ±1.0% | 7,580.09–7,738.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 20 | 6 | 7,718.94 | ±1.1% | 7,630.84–7,807.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | 7 | 7,805.45 | ±1.1% | 7,722.75–7,888.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 20 | 11 | 7,811.54 | ±1.3% | 7,713.14–7,909.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 20 | 12 | 7,765.36 | ±1.5% | 7,650.16–7,880.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 20 | 13 | 7,801.77 | ±1.5% | 7,681.67–7,921.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 20 | 14 | 7,818.93 | ±1.6% | 7,692.23–7,945.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 20 | 15 | 7,773.95 | ±1.8% | 7,637.65–7,910.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 20 | 18 | 7,722.72 | ±2.0% | 7,570.82–7,874.62 | em-1.0 |
Gespeicherte Momentaufnahmen
| Momentaufnahme | Abgelaufen | Erwartet | Tatsächlich | Innerhalb der Spanne? | Kurs → Schlusskurs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.0% | +0.0% | innerhalb | 7,659.44 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -0.8% | innerhalb | 7,718.94 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -1.9% | außerhalb | 7,805.45 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | -1.9% | außerhalb | 7,811.54 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | -1.4% | außerhalb | 7,765.36 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | -1.8% | außerhalb | 7,801.77 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | -2.0% | außerhalb | 7,818.93 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -1.5% | innerhalb | 7,773.95 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | -0.8% | innerhalb | 7,722.72 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -0.1% | innerhalb | 7,666.45 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -1.4% | innerhalb | 7,764.64 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -1.4% | innerhalb | 7,764.64 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.4% | innerhalb | 7,764.70 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +0.1% | innerhalb | 7,650.50 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +0.3% | innerhalb | 7,637.76 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +1.4% | innerhalb | 7,551.81 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +1.0% | innerhalb | 7,585.73 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +0.5% | innerhalb | 7,619.98 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +0.0% | innerhalb | 7,656.98 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +0.9% | innerhalb | 7,591.70 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +0.3% | innerhalb | 7,636.36 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -0.2% | innerhalb | 7,673.52 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -0.8% | innerhalb | 7,718.60 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -0.8% | innerhalb | 7,718.60 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -1.1% | innerhalb | 7,747.71 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -0.1% | innerhalb | 7,666.60 → 7,659.44 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +0.4% | innerhalb | 7,631.47 → 7,659.44 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -0.3% | innerhalb | 7,686.14 → 7,659.44 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | innerhalb | 7,718.94 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.7% | -0.8% | außerhalb | 7,805.45 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.9% | -0.9% | innerhalb | 7,811.54 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.1% | -0.3% | innerhalb | 7,765.36 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.2% | -0.7% | innerhalb | 7,801.77 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.3% | -1.0% | innerhalb | 7,818.93 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.4% | -0.4% | innerhalb | 7,773.95 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.7% | +0.3% | innerhalb | 7,722.72 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.0% | +1.0% | innerhalb | 7,666.45 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | innerhalb | 7,764.64 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | innerhalb | 7,764.64 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.4% | -0.3% | innerhalb | 7,764.70 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.6% | +1.2% | innerhalb | 7,650.50 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.7% | +1.4% | innerhalb | 7,637.76 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.2% | +2.5% | innerhalb | 7,551.81 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.2% | +2.1% | innerhalb | 7,585.73 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.2% | +1.6% | innerhalb | 7,619.98 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.1% | +1.1% | innerhalb | 7,656.98 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.6% | +2.0% | innerhalb | 7,591.70 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.4% | +1.4% | innerhalb | 7,636.36 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.3% | +0.9% | innerhalb | 7,673.52 → 7,744.06 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.6% | +0.3% | innerhalb | 7,718.60 → 7,744.06 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.0% | +0.0% | innerhalb | 7,718.94 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.5% | -1.1% | außerhalb | 7,805.45 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.8% | -1.2% | außerhalb | 7,811.54 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.0% | -0.6% | innerhalb | 7,765.36 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.1% | -1.1% | innerhalb | 7,801.77 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.2% | -1.3% | außerhalb | 7,818.93 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.3% | -0.7% | innerhalb | 7,773.95 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -0.0% | innerhalb | 7,722.72 → 7,718.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | +0.7% | innerhalb | 7,666.45 → 7,718.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.2% | -0.6% | innerhalb | 7,764.64 → 7,718.94 |
Ergebnisse vergleichen die aufgezeichnete Kursspanne mit dem Schlusskurs am Verfallstag. Die Methodenversion wird zeilenweise angezeigt, wo sie abweicht; aktuell: em-1.0.