SPOT histórico de movimento esperado Spotify Technology S.A.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo59%
|Real| abaixo do esperado59%
Movimento esperado médio±6.1%
Movimento |real| médio5.5%
Erro médio absoluto3.7pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 520.72 | ±9.2% | 473.04–568.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 530.46 | ±9.5% | 480.19–580.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 523.96 | ±9.6% | 473.74–574.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 528.17 | ±9.4% | 478.47–577.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 529.14 | ±10.3% | 474.46–583.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 526.00 | ±10.5% | 470.98–581.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 512.92 | ±10.5% | 459.12–566.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 488.13 | ±10.2% | 438.50–537.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 482.97 | ±10.3% | 433.07–532.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 472.89 | ±10.6% | 422.87–522.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 490.50 | ±11.0% | 436.52–544.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 501.30 | ±9.4% | 454.05–548.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 500.61 | ±9.5% | 453.15–548.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 515.96 | ±9.1% | 468.86–563.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 512.45 | ±9.4% | 464.43–560.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 534.47 | ±9.5% | 483.46–585.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 552.78 | ±9.9% | 498.13–607.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 558.37 | ±9.8% | 503.42–613.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 556.31 | ±10.0% | 500.46–612.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 528.48 | ±10.4% | 473.43–583.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 521.49 | ±10.8% | 465.14–577.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 528.50 | ±11.0% | 470.45–586.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 531.79 | ±11.1% | 472.96–590.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 542.43 | ±11.2% | 481.48–603.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 561.41 | ±10.8% | 500.81–622.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 564.30 | ±10.8% | 503.12–625.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 520.72 | ±10.0% | 468.39–573.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 530.46 | ±10.6% | 474.19–586.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 523.96 | ±10.5% | 468.88–579.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 528.17 | ±10.4% | 473.12–583.22 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 530.46 → 530.46 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +1.2% | dentro | 523.96 → 530.46 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 528.17 → 530.46 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 529.14 → 530.46 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +0.8% | dentro | 526.00 → 530.46 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +3.4% | dentro | 512.92 → 530.46 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +8.7% | fora | 488.13 → 530.46 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +9.8% | fora | 482.97 → 530.46 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +12.2% | fora | 472.89 → 530.46 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +8.1% | fora | 490.50 → 530.46 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +5.8% | dentro | 501.30 → 530.46 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +6.0% | dentro | 500.61 → 530.46 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +2.8% | dentro | 515.96 → 530.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +3.5% | dentro | 512.45 → 530.46 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -0.7% | dentro | 534.47 → 530.46 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -4.0% | dentro | 552.78 → 530.46 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -5.0% | dentro | 558.37 → 530.46 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -4.6% | dentro | 556.31 → 530.46 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 528.48 → 530.46 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +1.7% | dentro | 521.49 → 530.46 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 528.50 → 530.46 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 531.79 → 530.46 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 542.43 → 530.46 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -5.5% | dentro | 561.41 → 530.46 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -6.0% | dentro | 564.30 → 530.46 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -5.9% | dentro | 563.48 → 530.46 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -3.8% | dentro | 551.20 → 530.46 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -2.3% | dentro | 543.06 → 530.46 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 529.14 → 529.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.6% | dentro | 526.00 → 529.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +3.2% | fora | 512.92 → 529.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +8.4% | fora | 488.13 → 529.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +9.6% | fora | 482.97 → 529.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +11.9% | fora | 472.89 → 529.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +7.9% | fora | 490.50 → 529.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +5.6% | dentro | 501.30 → 529.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.7% | dentro | 500.61 → 529.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +2.6% | dentro | 515.96 → 529.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +3.3% | dentro | 512.45 → 529.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 534.47 → 529.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -4.3% | dentro | 552.78 → 529.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -5.2% | dentro | 558.37 → 529.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -4.9% | dentro | 556.31 → 529.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 528.48 → 529.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +1.5% | dentro | 521.49 → 529.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +0.1% | dentro | 528.50 → 529.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 531.79 → 529.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 542.43 → 529.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -5.7% | dentro | 561.41 → 529.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.2% | dentro | 564.30 → 529.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -6.1% | dentro | 563.48 → 529.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 551.20 → 529.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -2.6% | dentro | 543.06 → 529.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 472.89 → 472.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -3.6% | fora | 490.50 → 472.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -5.7% | fora | 501.30 → 472.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -5.5% | fora | 500.61 → 472.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -8.3% | fora | 515.96 → 472.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -7.7% | fora | 512.45 → 472.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -11.5% | fora | 534.47 → 472.89 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.