SPG historial de movimiento esperado Simon Property Group, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango81%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado81%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio1.8%
Error medio abs.2.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 202.49 | ±5.1% | 192.09–212.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 205.44 | ±5.7% | 193.74–217.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 198.70 | ±5.7% | 187.35–210.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 200.65 | ±5.3% | 189.95–211.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 199.42 | ±5.9% | 187.67–211.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 199.61 | ±6.2% | 187.21–212.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 197.59 | ±6.3% | 185.09–210.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 201.01 | ±6.5% | 188.01–214.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 201.40 | ±6.8% | 187.75–215.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 200.91 | ±6.9% | 187.01–214.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 200.81 | ±6.7% | 187.41–214.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 205.95 | ±7.6% | 190.25–221.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 204.98 | ±8.1% | 188.38–221.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 205.30 | ±7.8% | 189.20–221.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 204.47 | ±8.3% | 187.52–221.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 205.19 | ±8.0% | 188.84–221.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 200.97 | ±8.0% | 184.82–217.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 203.19 | ±8.1% | 186.69–219.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 204.88 | ±8.7% | 187.07–222.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 204.74 | ±8.4% | 187.54–221.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 204.53 | ±9.2% | 185.68–223.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 211.88 | ±8.2% | 194.43–229.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 208.41 | ±8.2% | 191.26–225.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 209.44 | ±8.4% | 191.89–226.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 211.52 | ±8.4% | 193.82–229.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 210.20 | ±8.4% | 192.50–227.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 210.38 | ±8.3% | 192.88–227.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 202.49 | ±7.4% | 187.54–217.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 205.44 | ±7.4% | 190.29–220.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 198.70 | ±7.7% | 183.40–214.00 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 205.44 → 205.44 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +3.4% | fuera | 198.70 → 205.44 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +2.4% | fuera | 200.65 → 205.44 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +3.0% | fuera | 199.42 → 205.44 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +2.9% | fuera | 199.61 → 205.44 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +4.0% | fuera | 197.59 → 205.44 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +2.2% | dentro | 201.01 → 205.44 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.0% | dentro | 201.40 → 205.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +2.3% | dentro | 200.91 → 205.44 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +2.3% | dentro | 200.81 → 205.44 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 205.95 → 205.44 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +0.2% | dentro | 204.98 → 205.44 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 205.30 → 205.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 204.47 → 205.44 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 205.19 → 205.44 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +2.2% | dentro | 200.97 → 205.44 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +1.1% | dentro | 203.19 → 205.44 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 204.88 → 205.44 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 204.74 → 205.44 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 204.53 → 205.44 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 211.88 → 205.44 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -1.4% | dentro | 208.41 → 205.44 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -1.9% | dentro | 209.44 → 205.44 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 211.52 → 205.44 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -2.3% | dentro | 210.20 → 205.44 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -2.3% | dentro | 210.38 → 205.44 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -3.2% | dentro | 212.32 → 205.44 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -4.3% | dentro | 214.56 → 205.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 204.47 → 205.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 205.19 → 205.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.9% | +2.2% | fuera | 200.97 → 205.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | +1.0% | dentro | 203.19 → 205.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 204.88 → 205.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 204.74 → 205.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 204.53 → 205.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -3.1% | fuera | 211.88 → 205.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -1.5% | dentro | 208.41 → 205.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -2.0% | dentro | 209.44 → 205.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 211.52 → 205.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -2.3% | dentro | 210.20 → 205.32 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -2.4% | dentro | 210.38 → 205.32 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 212.32 → 205.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -4.3% | fuera | 214.56 → 205.32 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.