SOXL histórico de movimento esperado Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas185
Fechar dentro do intervalo47%
|Real| abaixo do esperado47%
Movimento esperado médio±12.9%
Movimento |real| médio17.3%
Erro médio absoluto9.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 94.01 | ±1.4% | 92.67–95.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 109.11 | ±9.6% | 98.64–119.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 128.81 | ±9.4% | 116.66–140.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 139.67 | ±10.8% | 124.64–154.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 142.70 | ±12.7% | 124.53–160.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 159.19 | ±12.2% | 139.79–178.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 164.70 | ±12.0% | 144.93–184.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 164.70 | ±12.9% | 143.40–186.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 163.20 | ±15.1% | 138.53–187.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 153.08 | ±16.8% | 127.38–178.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 151.95 | ±22.6% | 117.62–186.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 150.62 | ±22.6% | 116.59–184.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 142.22 | ±24.2% | 107.84–176.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 123.49 | ±23.4% | 94.57–152.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 115.09 | ±23.7% | 87.77–142.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 104.63 | ±24.7% | 78.78–130.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 102.58 | ±24.9% | 77.08–128.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 102.61 | ±25.2% | 76.73–128.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 121.80 | ±25.8% | 90.40–153.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 115.46 | ±28.3% | 82.83–148.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 125.76 | ±28.8% | 89.51–162.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 123.70 | ±30.7% | 85.67–161.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 117.28 | ±29.1% | 83.11–151.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 116.75 | ±29.3% | 82.58–150.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 106.45 | ±28.2% | 76.40–136.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 106.50 | ±29.6% | 75.00–138.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 105.00 | ±30.3% | 73.22–136.78 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 112.80 | ±29.7% | 79.28–146.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 94.01 | ±14.9% | 80.03–107.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 109.11 | ±16.1% | 91.56–126.66 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.4% | -8.1% | fora | 139.67 → 128.40 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±7.6% | -10.0% | fora | 142.70 → 128.40 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±7.3% | -19.3% | fora | 159.19 → 128.40 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±8.0% | -22.0% | fora | 164.70 → 128.40 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±9.1% | -22.0% | fora | 164.70 → 128.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±10.7% | -21.3% | fora | 163.20 → 128.40 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±12.7% | -16.1% | fora | 153.08 → 128.40 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 139.67 → 139.76 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -2.1% | dentro | 142.70 → 139.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -12.2% | fora | 159.19 → 139.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -15.1% | fora | 164.70 → 139.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -15.1% | fora | 164.70 → 139.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -14.4% | fora | 163.20 → 139.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -8.7% | dentro | 153.08 → 139.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.6% | -8.0% | dentro | 151.95 → 139.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.8% | -7.2% | dentro | 150.62 → 139.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.5% | -1.7% | dentro | 142.22 → 139.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.5% | +13.2% | dentro | 123.49 → 139.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.8% | +21.4% | fora | 115.09 → 139.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±22.5% | +33.6% | fora | 104.63 → 139.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.4% | +36.2% | fora | 102.58 → 139.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±22.2% | +36.2% | fora | 102.61 → 139.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±23.4% | +14.7% | dentro | 121.80 → 139.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±25.6% | +21.0% | dentro | 115.46 → 139.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±26.4% | +11.1% | dentro | 125.76 → 139.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±28.2% | +13.0% | dentro | 123.70 → 139.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±27.3% | +19.2% | dentro | 117.28 → 139.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±27.0% | +19.7% | dentro | 116.75 → 139.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±25.7% | +31.3% | fora | 106.45 → 139.76 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±26.8% | +31.2% | fora | 106.50 → 139.76 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±27.0% | +33.1% | fora | 105.00 → 139.76 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±28.4% | +23.9% | dentro | 112.80 → 139.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 159.19 → 158.91 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.7% | -3.5% | dentro | 164.70 → 158.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±5.4% | -3.5% | dentro | 164.70 → 158.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±7.0% | -2.6% | dentro | 163.20 → 158.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±10.2% | +3.8% | dentro | 153.08 → 158.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±17.4% | +4.6% | dentro | 151.95 → 158.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±17.6% | +5.5% | dentro | 150.62 → 158.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 164.70 → 164.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±4.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 163.20 → 164.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±7.3% | +7.3% | fora | 153.08 → 164.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±15.5% | +8.1% | dentro | 151.95 → 164.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±15.6% | +9.1% | dentro | 150.62 → 164.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±17.2% | +15.5% | dentro | 142.22 → 164.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 163.20 → 163.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +6.9% | fora | 153.08 → 163.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.5% | +7.7% | dentro | 151.95 → 163.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.6% | +8.7% | dentro | 150.62 → 163.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.6% | +15.1% | dentro | 142.22 → 163.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.4% | +32.6% | fora | 123.49 → 163.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.7% | +42.2% | fora | 115.09 → 163.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±19.1% | +56.5% | fora | 104.63 → 163.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.8% | +59.6% | fora | 102.58 → 163.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.8% | +59.5% | fora | 102.61 → 163.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±19.8% | +34.4% | fora | 121.80 → 163.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±22.3% | +41.8% | fora | 115.46 → 163.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±23.4% | +30.2% | fora | 125.76 → 163.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±25.0% | +32.3% | fora | 123.70 → 163.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±24.3% | +39.6% | fora | 117.28 → 163.71 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.