SOXL 预期波动历史 Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项200
收盘价处于区间内48%
|实际值| 低于预期值48%
平均预期波动幅度±14.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度18.9%
平均绝对误差10.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 99.43 | ±12.0% | 87.53–111.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 94.01 | ±14.9% | 80.03–107.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 109.11 | ±16.1% | 91.56–126.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 128.81 | ±15.1% | 109.41–148.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 139.67 | ±15.3% | 118.24–161.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 142.70 | ±17.5% | 117.70–167.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 159.19 | ±16.5% | 132.97–185.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 164.70 | ±16.5% | 137.57–191.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 164.70 | ±17.3% | 136.15–193.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 163.20 | ±20.3% | 130.00–196.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 153.08 | ±21.7% | 119.81–186.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 151.95 | ±26.1% | 112.25–191.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 150.62 | ±26.3% | 110.99–190.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 142.22 | ±26.5% | 104.59–179.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 123.49 | ±26.2% | 91.12–155.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 115.09 | ±26.3% | 84.86–145.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 104.63 | ±27.6% | 75.73–133.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 102.58 | ±27.2% | 74.66–130.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 102.61 | ±27.8% | 74.08–131.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 121.80 | ±28.7% | 86.80–156.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 115.46 | ±31.4% | 79.21–151.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 125.76 | ±32.3% | 85.11–166.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 123.70 | ±34.0% | 81.60–165.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 117.28 | ±32.2% | 79.50–155.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 116.75 | ±32.2% | 79.10–154.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 106.45 | ±31.0% | 73.42–139.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 99.43 | ±18.2% | 81.31–117.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 94.01 | ±20.6% | 74.61–113.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 109.11 | ±21.8% | 85.34–132.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 128.81 | ±18.8% | 104.53–153.09 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 94.01 → 93.67 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -14.2% | 区间外 | 109.11 → 93.67 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -27.3% | 区间外 | 128.81 → 93.67 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -32.9% | 区间外 | 139.67 → 93.67 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -34.4% | 区间外 | 142.70 → 93.67 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -41.2% | 区间外 | 159.19 → 93.67 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -43.1% | 区间外 | 164.70 → 93.67 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -43.1% | 区间外 | 164.70 → 93.67 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -42.6% | 区间外 | 163.20 → 93.67 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.8% | -38.8% | 区间外 | 153.08 → 93.67 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.6% | -38.4% | 区间外 | 151.95 → 93.67 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.6% | -37.8% | 区间外 | 150.62 → 93.67 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.2% | -34.1% | 区间外 | 142.22 → 93.67 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±23.4% | -24.1% | 区间外 | 123.49 → 93.67 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±23.7% | -18.6% | 区间内 | 115.09 → 93.67 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.7% | -10.5% | 区间内 | 104.63 → 93.67 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.9% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 102.58 → 93.67 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±25.2% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 102.61 → 93.67 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±25.8% | -23.1% | 区间内 | 121.80 → 93.67 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±28.3% | -18.9% | 区间内 | 115.46 → 93.67 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±28.8% | -25.5% | 区间内 | 125.76 → 93.67 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±30.7% | -24.3% | 区间内 | 123.70 → 93.67 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±29.1% | -20.1% | 区间内 | 117.28 → 93.67 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±29.3% | -19.8% | 区间内 | 116.75 → 93.67 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±28.2% | -12.0% | 区间内 | 106.45 → 93.67 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±29.6% | -12.0% | 区间内 | 106.50 → 93.67 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±30.3% | -10.8% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 93.67 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±29.7% | -17.0% | 区间内 | 112.80 → 93.67 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.4% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 139.67 → 128.40 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±7.6% | -10.0% | 区间外 | 142.70 → 128.40 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±7.3% | -19.3% | 区间外 | 159.19 → 128.40 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±8.0% | -22.0% | 区间外 | 164.70 → 128.40 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±9.1% | -22.0% | 区间外 | 164.70 → 128.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±10.7% | -21.3% | 区间外 | 163.20 → 128.40 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±12.7% | -16.1% | 区间外 | 153.08 → 128.40 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 139.67 → 139.76 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 142.70 → 139.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 159.19 → 139.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -15.1% | 区间外 | 164.70 → 139.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -15.1% | 区间外 | 164.70 → 139.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -14.4% | 区间外 | 163.20 → 139.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 153.08 → 139.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.6% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 151.95 → 139.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.8% | -7.2% | 区间内 | 150.62 → 139.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.5% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 142.22 → 139.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.5% | +13.2% | 区间内 | 123.49 → 139.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.8% | +21.4% | 区间外 | 115.09 → 139.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±22.5% | +33.6% | 区间外 | 104.63 → 139.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.4% | +36.2% | 区间外 | 102.58 → 139.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±22.2% | +36.2% | 区间外 | 102.61 → 139.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±23.4% | +14.7% | 区间内 | 121.80 → 139.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±25.6% | +21.0% | 区间内 | 115.46 → 139.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±26.4% | +11.1% | 区间内 | 125.76 → 139.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±28.2% | +13.0% | 区间内 | 123.70 → 139.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±27.3% | +19.2% | 区间内 | 117.28 → 139.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±27.0% | +19.7% | 区间内 | 116.75 → 139.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±25.7% | +31.3% | 区间外 | 106.45 → 139.76 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±26.8% | +31.2% | 区间外 | 106.50 → 139.76 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±27.0% | +33.1% | 区间外 | 105.00 → 139.76 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±28.4% | +23.9% | 区间内 | 112.80 → 139.76 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.