SOFI 预期波动历史 SoFi Technologies, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内59%
|实际值| 低于预期值59%
平均预期波动幅度±7.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.3%
平均绝对误差2.4pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 14.30 | ±4.4% | 13.67–14.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 14.54 | ±5.4% | 13.76–15.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 14.17 | ±6.4% | 13.27–15.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 15.22 | ±5.4% | 14.39–16.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 15.75 | ±6.3% | 14.76–16.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 15.60 | ±6.8% | 14.55–16.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 15.66 | ±6.7% | 14.62–16.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 15.82 | ±7.3% | 14.66–16.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 15.89 | ±7.4% | 14.72–17.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 15.75 | ±7.9% | 14.51–16.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 15.82 | ±8.5% | 14.47–17.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 17.21 | ±10.3% | 15.43–18.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 17.17 | ±10.4% | 15.39–18.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 16.98 | ±10.5% | 15.20–18.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 16.95 | ±10.9% | 15.11–18.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 16.74 | ±11.5% | 14.82–18.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 16.89 | ±12.1% | 14.85–18.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 17.07 | ±12.6% | 14.93–19.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 17.60 | ±12.4% | 15.43–19.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 17.31 | ±12.9% | 15.08–19.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 17.23 | ±13.4% | 14.93–19.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 17.38 | ±14.0% | 14.95–19.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 17.99 | ±14.1% | 15.45–20.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 18.18 | ±14.3% | 15.57–20.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 18.15 | ±14.4% | 15.54–20.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 18.49 | ±14.6% | 15.80–21.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 14.30 | ±10.4% | 12.81–15.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 14.54 | ±11.0% | 12.94–16.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 14.17 | ±11.4% | 12.56–15.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 15.22 | ±10.5% | 13.62–16.82 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 14.54 → 14.55 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 14.17 → 14.55 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -4.4% | 区间外 | 15.22 → 14.55 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 15.75 → 14.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 15.60 → 14.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 15.66 → 14.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 15.82 → 14.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 15.89 → 14.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 15.75 → 14.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 15.82 → 14.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -15.5% | 区间外 | 17.21 → 14.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -15.3% | 区间外 | 17.17 → 14.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 16.98 → 14.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -14.2% | 区间外 | 16.95 → 14.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 16.74 → 14.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -13.9% | 区间外 | 16.89 → 14.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -14.8% | 区间外 | 17.07 → 14.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -17.3% | 区间外 | 17.60 → 14.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -16.0% | 区间外 | 17.31 → 14.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -15.6% | 区间外 | 17.23 → 14.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -16.3% | 区间外 | 17.38 → 14.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 17.99 → 14.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -20.0% | 区间外 | 18.18 → 14.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -19.8% | 区间外 | 18.15 → 14.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -21.3% | 区间外 | 18.49 → 14.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -18.4% | 区间外 | 17.82 → 14.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -15.0% | 区间外 | 17.12 → 14.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -18.9% | 区间外 | 17.93 → 14.55 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 15.75 → 15.80 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 15.60 → 15.80 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 15.66 → 15.80 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 15.82 → 15.80 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 15.89 → 15.80 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 15.75 → 15.80 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 15.82 → 15.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 17.21 → 15.80 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 17.17 → 15.80 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -6.9% | 区间内 | 16.98 → 15.80 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -6.8% | 区间内 | 16.95 → 15.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 16.74 → 15.80 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 16.89 → 15.80 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 17.07 → 15.80 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -10.2% | 区间外 | 17.60 → 15.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 17.31 → 15.80 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -8.3% | 区间内 | 17.23 → 15.80 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | -9.1% | 区间内 | 17.38 → 15.80 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 17.99 → 15.80 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 18.18 → 15.80 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 18.15 → 15.80 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -14.5% | 区间外 | 18.49 → 15.80 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | 区间内 | 17.82 → 15.80 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -7.7% | 区间内 | 17.12 → 15.80 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -11.9% | 区间内 | 17.93 → 15.80 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 15.75 → 15.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 15.82 → 15.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 17.21 → 15.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 17.17 → 15.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 16.98 → 15.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -7.0% | 区间外 | 16.95 → 15.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 16.74 → 15.77 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.