SNOW histórico de movimento esperado Snowflake Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo76%
|Real| abaixo do esperado76%
Movimento esperado médio±8.5%
Movimento |real| médio5.5%
Erro médio absoluto4.7pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 315.37 | ±5.2% | 299.05–331.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 306.00 | ±6.5% | 286.25–325.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 333.50 | ±6.4% | 312.00–355.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 356.57 | ±6.5% | 333.27–379.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 368.58 | ±7.2% | 342.08–395.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 341.98 | ±7.1% | 317.63–366.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 332.85 | ±7.4% | 308.38–357.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 335.95 | ±7.7% | 310.02–361.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 338.99 | ±7.8% | 312.54–365.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 340.20 | ±8.7% | 310.65–369.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 342.90 | ±9.4% | 310.80–375.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 337.00 | ±10.8% | 300.68–373.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 338.46 | ±10.9% | 301.41–375.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 339.00 | ±10.9% | 302.10–375.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 333.65 | ±10.8% | 297.50–369.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 338.49 | ±11.0% | 301.19–375.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 331.29 | ±12.1% | 291.17–371.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 323.52 | ±12.0% | 284.72–362.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 332.00 | ±11.9% | 292.48–371.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 328.31 | ±12.7% | 286.74–369.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 330.03 | ±12.5% | 288.75–371.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 331.34 | ±12.6% | 289.49–373.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 335.23 | ±12.7% | 292.53–377.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 338.03 | ±12.7% | 295.08–380.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 338.80 | ±12.7% | 295.85–381.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 355.80 | ±13.0% | 309.40–402.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 315.37 | ±8.2% | 289.42–341.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 306.00 | ±9.2% | 277.98–334.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 333.50 | ±9.0% | 303.65–363.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 356.57 | ±8.8% | 325.27–387.87 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 306.00 → 306.84 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -8.0% | fora | 333.50 → 306.84 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -13.9% | fora | 356.57 → 306.84 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -16.8% | fora | 368.58 → 306.84 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -10.3% | fora | 341.98 → 306.84 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -7.8% | fora | 332.85 → 306.84 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -8.7% | fora | 335.95 → 306.84 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -9.5% | fora | 338.99 → 306.84 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -9.8% | fora | 340.20 → 306.84 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -10.5% | fora | 342.90 → 306.84 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -8.9% | dentro | 337.00 → 306.84 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -9.3% | dentro | 338.46 → 306.84 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -9.5% | dentro | 339.00 → 306.84 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -8.0% | dentro | 333.65 → 306.84 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -9.3% | dentro | 338.49 → 306.84 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -7.4% | dentro | 331.29 → 306.84 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -5.2% | dentro | 323.52 → 306.84 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -7.6% | dentro | 332.00 → 306.84 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -6.5% | dentro | 328.31 → 306.84 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -7.0% | dentro | 330.03 → 306.84 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -7.4% | dentro | 331.34 → 306.84 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -8.5% | dentro | 335.23 → 306.84 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -9.2% | dentro | 338.03 → 306.84 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -9.4% | dentro | 338.80 → 306.84 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -13.8% | fora | 355.80 → 306.84 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.9% | -17.2% | dentro | 370.51 → 306.84 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.5% | -3.8% | dentro | 318.98 → 306.84 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | -7.5% | dentro | 331.69 → 306.84 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 368.58 → 368.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +7.9% | fora | 341.98 → 368.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +10.8% | fora | 332.85 → 368.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +9.8% | fora | 335.95 → 368.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +8.8% | fora | 338.99 → 368.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +8.4% | fora | 340.20 → 368.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +7.6% | fora | 342.90 → 368.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +9.5% | fora | 337.00 → 368.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +9.0% | fora | 338.46 → 368.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +8.8% | fora | 339.00 → 368.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +10.6% | fora | 333.65 → 368.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +9.0% | fora | 338.49 → 368.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +11.3% | fora | 331.29 → 368.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +14.0% | fora | 323.52 → 368.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +11.1% | fora | 332.00 → 368.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +12.4% | fora | 328.31 → 368.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +11.8% | fora | 330.03 → 368.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +11.3% | fora | 331.34 → 368.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +10.0% | dentro | 335.23 → 368.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +9.1% | dentro | 338.03 → 368.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +8.9% | dentro | 338.80 → 368.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +3.7% | dentro | 355.80 → 368.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 370.51 → 368.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.7% | +15.6% | dentro | 318.98 → 368.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.3% | +11.2% | dentro | 331.69 → 368.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 340.20 → 341.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -0.5% | dentro | 342.90 → 341.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 337.00 → 341.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 338.46 → 341.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | +0.6% | dentro | 339.00 → 341.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +2.2% | dentro | 333.65 → 341.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 338.49 → 341.04 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.