SNOW historial de movimiento esperado Snowflake Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango80%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado80%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.4%
Error medio abs.5.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 306.00 | ±0.6% | 304.10–307.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 333.50 | ±3.5% | 321.93–345.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 356.57 | ±3.9% | 342.80–370.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 368.58 | ±5.0% | 350.08–387.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 341.98 | ±5.4% | 323.38–360.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 332.85 | ±5.3% | 315.15–350.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 335.95 | ±5.8% | 316.35–355.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 338.99 | ±6.1% | 318.26–359.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 340.20 | ±6.9% | 316.70–363.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 342.90 | ±7.5% | 317.30–368.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 337.00 | ±9.5% | 304.90–369.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 338.46 | ±9.4% | 306.56–370.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 339.00 | ±9.7% | 306.02–371.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 333.65 | ±9.4% | 302.27–365.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 338.49 | ±9.9% | 305.11–371.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 331.29 | ±10.9% | 295.17–367.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 323.52 | ±10.7% | 288.87–358.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 332.00 | ±10.7% | 296.32–367.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 328.31 | ±11.5% | 290.51–366.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 330.03 | ±11.2% | 292.93–367.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 331.34 | ±11.6% | 292.87–369.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 335.23 | ±11.8% | 295.68–374.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 338.03 | ±11.6% | 298.78–377.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 338.80 | ±11.6% | 299.55–378.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 355.80 | ±12.2% | 312.23–399.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 370.51 | ±20.9% | 292.99–448.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 318.98 | ±17.5% | 263.00–374.95 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 331.69 | ±17.1% | 274.99–388.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 306.00 | ±6.5% | 286.25–325.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 333.50 | ±6.4% | 312.00–355.00 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 368.58 → 368.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +7.9% | fuera | 341.98 → 368.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +10.8% | fuera | 332.85 → 368.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +9.8% | fuera | 335.95 → 368.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +8.8% | fuera | 338.99 → 368.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +8.4% | fuera | 340.20 → 368.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +7.6% | fuera | 342.90 → 368.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +9.5% | fuera | 337.00 → 368.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +9.0% | fuera | 338.46 → 368.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +8.8% | fuera | 339.00 → 368.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +10.6% | fuera | 333.65 → 368.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +9.0% | fuera | 338.49 → 368.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +11.3% | fuera | 331.29 → 368.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +14.0% | fuera | 323.52 → 368.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +11.1% | fuera | 332.00 → 368.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +12.4% | fuera | 328.31 → 368.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +11.8% | fuera | 330.03 → 368.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +11.3% | fuera | 331.34 → 368.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +10.0% | dentro | 335.23 → 368.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +9.1% | dentro | 338.03 → 368.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +8.9% | dentro | 338.80 → 368.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +3.7% | dentro | 355.80 → 368.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 370.51 → 368.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.7% | +15.6% | dentro | 318.98 → 368.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.3% | +11.2% | dentro | 331.69 → 368.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 340.20 → 341.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -0.5% | dentro | 342.90 → 341.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 337.00 → 341.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 338.46 → 341.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | +0.6% | dentro | 339.00 → 341.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +2.2% | dentro | 333.65 → 341.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 338.49 → 341.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +2.9% | dentro | 331.29 → 341.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +5.4% | dentro | 323.52 → 341.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | +2.7% | dentro | 332.00 → 341.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +3.9% | dentro | 328.31 → 341.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.9% | +3.3% | dentro | 330.03 → 341.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | +2.9% | dentro | 331.34 → 341.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | +1.7% | dentro | 335.23 → 341.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 338.03 → 341.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 338.80 → 341.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -4.1% | dentro | 355.80 → 341.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±20.3% | -8.0% | dentro | 370.51 → 341.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.1% | +6.9% | dentro | 318.98 → 341.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.8% | +2.8% | dentro | 331.69 → 341.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 337.00 → 335.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 338.46 → 335.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -0.9% | dentro | 339.00 → 335.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 333.65 → 335.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 338.49 → 335.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | +1.4% | dentro | 331.29 → 335.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | +3.8% | dentro | 323.52 → 335.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.00 → 335.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | +2.3% | dentro | 328.31 → 335.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +1.8% | dentro | 330.03 → 335.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 331.34 → 335.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 335.23 → 335.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | -0.6% | dentro | 338.03 → 335.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | -0.8% | dentro | 338.80 → 335.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | -5.6% | dentro | 355.80 → 335.94 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.