SMR 预期波动历史 NuScale Power Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内51%
|实际值| 低于预期值51%
平均预期波动幅度±11.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度12.7%
平均绝对误差4.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 5.84 | ±2.8% | 5.67–6.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 5.85 | ±6.0% | 5.50–6.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 6.49 | ±5.7% | 6.12–6.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 7.20 | ±7.6% | 6.66–7.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 7.32 | ±8.8% | 6.68–7.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 7.66 | ±8.4% | 7.02–8.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 8.06 | ±9.7% | 7.28–8.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 7.71 | ±8.9% | 7.02–8.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 7.78 | ±11.4% | 6.89–8.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 7.81 | ±11.9% | 6.88–8.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 8.94 | ±15.7% | 7.54–10.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 8.91 | ±15.7% | 7.51–10.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 8.80 | ±16.3% | 7.37–10.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 8.34 | ±16.7% | 6.95–9.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 8.97 | ±17.4% | 7.41–10.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 8.30 | ±17.2% | 6.87–9.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 8.42 | ±17.5% | 6.95–9.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 8.55 | ±18.6% | 6.96–10.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 8.60 | ±19.9% | 6.89–10.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 10.30 | ±20.0% | 8.24–12.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 10.81 | ±21.2% | 8.51–13.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 11.08 | ±22.5% | 8.59–13.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 9.70 | ±21.2% | 7.64–11.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 9.68 | ±21.2% | 7.62–11.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 9.79 | ±21.0% | 7.73–11.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 9.59 | ±22.4% | 7.44–11.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 9.21 | ±21.5% | 7.23–11.19 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 9.30 | ±21.5% | 7.30–11.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 5.84 | ±9.2% | 5.30–6.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 5.85 | ±10.8% | 5.22–6.48 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 7.20 → 7.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 7.32 → 7.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -6.0% | 区间外 | 7.66 → 7.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 8.06 → 7.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 7.71 → 7.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -7.5% | 区间内 | 7.78 → 7.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 7.81 → 7.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | -19.5% | 区间外 | 8.94 → 7.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | -19.2% | 区间外 | 8.91 → 7.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | -18.2% | 区间外 | 8.80 → 7.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | -13.7% | 区间内 | 8.34 → 7.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -19.7% | 区间外 | 8.97 → 7.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.6% | -13.3% | 区间内 | 8.30 → 7.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.2% | -14.5% | 区间内 | 8.42 → 7.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | -15.8% | 区间外 | 8.55 → 7.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | -16.3% | 区间内 | 8.60 → 7.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.1% | -30.1% | 区间外 | 10.30 → 7.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.3% | -33.4% | 区间外 | 10.81 → 7.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.5% | -35.0% | 区间外 | 11.08 → 7.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | -25.8% | 区间外 | 9.70 → 7.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | -25.6% | 区间外 | 9.68 → 7.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.8% | -26.4% | 区间外 | 9.79 → 7.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.5% | -24.9% | 区间外 | 9.59 → 7.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.1% | -21.8% | 区间外 | 9.21 → 7.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.7% | -22.6% | 区间外 | 9.30 → 7.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 7.78 → 7.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 7.81 → 7.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.5% | -13.3% | 区间外 | 8.94 → 7.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 8.91 → 7.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.2% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 8.80 → 7.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.9% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 8.34 → 7.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -13.6% | 区间外 | 8.97 → 7.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 8.30 → 7.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 8.42 → 7.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | -9.4% | 区间内 | 8.55 → 7.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.2% | -9.9% | 区间内 | 8.60 → 7.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.9% | -24.8% | 区间外 | 10.30 → 7.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.6% | -28.3% | 区间外 | 10.81 → 7.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.4% | -30.1% | 区间外 | 11.08 → 7.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.8% | -20.1% | 区间外 | 9.70 → 7.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.8% | -19.9% | 区间外 | 9.68 → 7.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.0% | -20.8% | 区间外 | 9.79 → 7.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.2% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 9.59 → 7.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.2% | -15.9% | 区间内 | 9.21 → 7.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.1% | -16.7% | 区间内 | 9.30 → 7.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 8.94 → 8.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 8.91 → 8.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 8.80 → 8.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.3% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 8.34 → 8.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 8.97 → 8.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.4% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 8.30 → 8.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.0% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 8.42 → 8.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.3% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 8.55 → 8.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.2% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 8.60 → 8.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.6% | -18.3% | 区间外 | 10.30 → 8.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±14.3% | -22.1% | 区间外 | 10.81 → 8.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.4% | -24.0% | 区间外 | 11.08 → 8.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.9% | -13.2% | 区间内 | 9.70 → 8.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.9% | -13.0% | 区间内 | 9.68 → 8.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.3% | -14.0% | 区间内 | 9.79 → 8.42 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.