SMH riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan3
Tutup dalam rentang67%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi67%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±0.7%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|0.8%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut0.5pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02 | Sep 02 | 0 | 550.50 | ±0.7% | 546.75–554.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 02 | 1 | 546.00 | ±1.6% | 537.53–554.47 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 02 | 2 | 556.80 | ±1.8% | 547.02–566.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 03 | 1 | 550.50 | ±1.6% | 541.78–559.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 03 | 2 | 546.00 | ±2.1% | 534.45–557.55 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 03 | 3 | 556.80 | ±2.2% | 544.52–569.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 04 | 2 | 550.50 | ±2.1% | 539.00–562.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 04 | 3 | 546.00 | ±2.6% | 531.73–560.27 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 04 | 4 | 556.80 | ±2.7% | 541.65–571.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 08 | 6 | 550.50 | ±2.6% | 536.15–564.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 08 | 7 | 546.00 | ±3.2% | 528.73–563.27 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 08 | 8 | 556.80 | ±3.1% | 539.77–573.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 09 | 7 | 550.50 | ±3.0% | 533.88–567.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 09 | 8 | 546.00 | ±3.4% | 527.25–564.75 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 09 | 9 | 556.80 | ±3.3% | 538.15–575.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 10 | 8 | 550.50 | ±3.4% | 531.60–569.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 10 | 9 | 546.00 | ±3.7% | 525.60–566.40 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 10 | 10 | 556.80 | ±3.6% | 536.48–577.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 11 | 9 | 550.50 | ±3.8% | 529.48–571.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 11 | 10 | 546.00 | ±4.1% | 523.65–568.35 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 11 | 11 | 556.80 | ±3.8% | 535.83–577.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 14 | 12 | 550.50 | ±4.1% | 527.73–573.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 14 | 13 | 546.00 | ±4.5% | 521.20–570.80 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 14 | 14 | 556.80 | ±4.1% | 534.02–579.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 15 | 13 | 550.50 | ±4.2% | 527.17–573.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 15 | 14 | 546.00 | ±4.8% | 519.62–572.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 16 | 14 | 550.50 | ±4.6% | 525.33–575.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 18 | 16 | 550.50 | ±5.2% | 522.15–578.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 18 | 17 | 546.00 | ±5.5% | 516.05–575.95 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 18 | 18 | 556.80 | ±5.3% | 527.25–586.35 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 01 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | di dalam | 546.00 → 545.22 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 01 | ±1.3% | -2.1% | di luar | 556.80 → 545.22 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aug 31 | ±0.4% | -0.0% | di dalam | 556.80 → 556.63 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.