SMH historial de movimiento esperado VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango36%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado36%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.9%
Error medio abs.3.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 542.00 | ±0.5% | 539.52–544.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 563.32 | ±3.2% | 545.42–581.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 589.75 | ±3.0% | 571.80–607.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 603.51 | ±3.5% | 582.18–624.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 607.80 | ±3.8% | 584.80–630.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 625.30 | ±3.6% | 602.68–647.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 632.25 | ±3.6% | 609.48–655.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 634.50 | ±3.8% | 610.23–658.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 630.20 | ±4.5% | 601.88–658.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 617.89 | ±5.1% | 586.66–649.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 606.48 | ±6.9% | 564.70–648.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 606.00 | ±6.9% | 564.23–647.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 596.33 | ±7.1% | 554.28–638.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 571.95 | ±6.9% | 532.40–611.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 560.40 | ±7.2% | 519.92–600.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 545.50 | ±8.0% | 502.00–589.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 542.63 | ±7.5% | 501.81–583.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 543.97 | ±7.8% | 501.49–586.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 568.02 | ±7.9% | 523.39–612.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 560.80 | ±8.7% | 512.05–609.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 573.72 | ±8.8% | 523.20–624.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 573.60 | ±9.5% | 519.33–627.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 565.59 | ±9.2% | 513.47–617.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 566.38 | ±9.2% | 514.26–618.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 552.60 | ±8.7% | 504.32–600.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 550.50 | ±9.0% | 500.90–600.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 546.00 | ±9.2% | 495.50–596.50 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 556.80 | ±9.3% | 505.23–608.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 542.00 | ±2.4% | 528.90–555.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 563.32 | ±3.5% | 543.54–583.10 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.4% | -0.8% | dentro | 563.32 → 558.84 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.6% | -5.2% | fuera | 589.75 → 558.84 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.0% | -7.4% | fuera | 603.51 → 558.84 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.5% | -8.1% | fuera | 607.80 → 558.84 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.3% | -10.6% | fuera | 625.30 → 558.84 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.4% | -11.6% | fuera | 632.25 → 558.84 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.7% | -11.9% | fuera | 634.50 → 558.84 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±4.2% | -11.3% | fuera | 630.20 → 558.84 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±4.8% | -9.6% | fuera | 617.89 → 558.84 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 563.32 → 564.74 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | -4.2% | fuera | 589.75 → 564.74 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.5% | -6.4% | fuera | 603.51 → 564.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | -7.1% | fuera | 607.80 → 564.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | -9.7% | fuera | 625.30 → 564.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | -10.7% | fuera | 632.25 → 564.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.5% | -11.0% | fuera | 634.50 → 564.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.9% | -10.4% | fuera | 630.20 → 564.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.7% | -8.6% | fuera | 617.89 → 564.74 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 589.75 → 588.12 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.8% | -2.5% | fuera | 603.51 → 588.12 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.7% | -3.2% | fuera | 607.80 → 588.12 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.6% | -5.9% | fuera | 625.30 → 588.12 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.7% | -7.0% | fuera | 632.25 → 588.12 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.8% | -7.3% | fuera | 634.50 → 588.12 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.5% | -6.7% | fuera | 630.20 → 588.12 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±4.1% | -4.8% | fuera | 617.89 → 588.12 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.4% | -2.1% | fuera | 603.51 → 590.99 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | -2.8% | fuera | 607.80 → 590.99 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | -5.5% | fuera | 625.30 → 590.99 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.4% | -6.5% | fuera | 632.25 → 590.99 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.7% | -6.9% | fuera | 634.50 → 590.99 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | -6.2% | fuera | 630.20 → 590.99 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.8% | -4.4% | fuera | 617.89 → 590.99 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 603.51 → 603.33 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 607.80 → 603.33 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | -3.5% | fuera | 625.30 → 603.33 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -4.6% | fuera | 632.25 → 603.33 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -4.9% | fuera | 634.50 → 603.33 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -4.3% | fuera | 630.20 → 603.33 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 617.89 → 603.33 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.5% | dentro | 606.48 → 603.33 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 606.00 → 603.33 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +1.2% | dentro | 596.33 → 603.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.5% | dentro | 571.95 → 603.33 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +7.7% | fuera | 560.40 → 603.33 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +10.6% | fuera | 545.50 → 603.33 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +11.2% | fuera | 542.63 → 603.33 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +10.9% | fuera | 543.97 → 603.33 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +6.2% | dentro | 568.02 → 603.33 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +7.6% | dentro | 560.80 → 603.33 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +5.2% | dentro | 573.72 → 603.33 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +5.2% | dentro | 573.60 → 603.33 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +6.7% | dentro | 565.59 → 603.33 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +6.5% | dentro | 566.38 → 603.33 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +9.2% | fuera | 552.60 → 603.33 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +9.6% | fuera | 550.50 → 603.33 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +10.5% | fuera | 546.00 → 603.33 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +8.4% | fuera | 556.80 → 603.33 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 08 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 607.80 → 607.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 08 | ±1.3% | -2.9% | fuera | 625.30 → 607.27 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.