SHOP historial de movimiento esperado Shopify Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango40%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado40%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio11.9%
Error medio abs.6.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 170.50 | ±5.0% | 161.90–179.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 169.50 | ±6.5% | 158.53–180.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 171.50 | ±6.4% | 160.47–182.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 176.38 | ±6.6% | 164.68–188.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 170.64 | ±7.3% | 158.24–183.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 164.43 | ±7.8% | 151.61–177.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 165.90 | ±8.2% | 152.38–179.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 164.78 | ±8.4% | 151.01–178.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 160.11 | ±8.7% | 146.24–173.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 151.59 | ±9.1% | 137.79–165.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 148.85 | ±10.1% | 133.85–163.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 147.60 | ±12.0% | 129.95–165.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 147.69 | ±12.0% | 130.04–165.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 138.00 | ±12.1% | 121.35–154.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 128.20 | ±11.6% | 113.38–143.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 128.49 | ±11.6% | 113.64–143.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 130.20 | ±12.7% | 113.65–146.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 130.00 | ±12.8% | 113.33–146.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 133.75 | ±12.6% | 116.88–150.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 128.80 | ±13.4% | 111.55–146.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 127.39 | ±13.3% | 110.49–144.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 127.12 | ±13.5% | 109.94–144.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 134.00 | ±13.4% | 116.00–152.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 144.80 | ±13.9% | 124.65–164.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 144.75 | ±13.9% | 124.60–164.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 145.58 | ±13.6% | 125.83–165.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 170.50 | ±8.1% | 156.70–184.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 169.50 | ±8.8% | 154.60–184.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 171.50 | ±8.9% | 156.22–186.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 176.38 | ±8.8% | 160.91–191.85 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 169.50 → 169.52 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 171.50 → 169.52 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -3.9% | dentro | 176.38 → 169.52 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 170.64 → 169.52 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +3.1% | dentro | 164.43 → 169.52 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +2.2% | dentro | 165.90 → 169.52 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +2.9% | dentro | 164.78 → 169.52 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +5.9% | dentro | 160.11 → 169.52 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +11.8% | fuera | 151.59 → 169.52 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +13.9% | fuera | 148.85 → 169.52 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +14.9% | fuera | 147.60 → 169.52 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +14.8% | fuera | 147.69 → 169.52 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +22.8% | fuera | 138.00 → 169.52 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +32.2% | fuera | 128.20 → 169.52 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +31.9% | fuera | 128.49 → 169.52 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +30.2% | fuera | 130.20 → 169.52 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | +30.4% | fuera | 130.00 → 169.52 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | +26.7% | fuera | 133.75 → 169.52 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +31.6% | fuera | 128.80 → 169.52 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +33.1% | fuera | 127.39 → 169.52 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +33.4% | fuera | 127.12 → 169.52 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +26.5% | fuera | 134.00 → 169.52 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +17.1% | fuera | 144.80 → 169.52 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +17.1% | fuera | 144.75 → 169.52 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +16.4% | fuera | 145.58 → 169.52 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +19.4% | fuera | 141.99 → 169.52 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +21.4% | fuera | 139.62 → 169.52 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +15.0% | fuera | 147.37 → 169.52 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 170.64 → 170.85 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.9% | fuera | 164.43 → 170.85 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +3.0% | dentro | 165.90 → 170.85 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +3.7% | dentro | 164.78 → 170.85 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +6.7% | fuera | 160.11 → 170.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +12.7% | fuera | 151.59 → 170.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +14.8% | fuera | 148.85 → 170.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +15.8% | fuera | 147.60 → 170.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +15.7% | fuera | 147.69 → 170.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +23.8% | fuera | 138.00 → 170.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +33.3% | fuera | 128.20 → 170.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +33.0% | fuera | 128.49 → 170.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +31.2% | fuera | 130.20 → 170.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +31.4% | fuera | 130.00 → 170.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +27.7% | fuera | 133.75 → 170.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +32.6% | fuera | 128.80 → 170.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +34.1% | fuera | 127.39 → 170.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +34.4% | fuera | 127.12 → 170.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +27.5% | fuera | 134.00 → 170.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +18.0% | fuera | 144.80 → 170.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +18.0% | fuera | 144.75 → 170.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +17.4% | fuera | 145.58 → 170.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +20.3% | fuera | 141.99 → 170.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +22.4% | fuera | 139.62 → 170.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +15.9% | fuera | 147.37 → 170.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 151.59 → 151.39 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | +1.7% | dentro | 148.85 → 151.39 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 147.60 → 151.39 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +2.5% | dentro | 147.69 → 151.39 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +9.7% | fuera | 138.00 → 151.39 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | +18.1% | fuera | 128.20 → 151.39 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | +17.8% | fuera | 128.49 → 151.39 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.