SE histórico de movimento esperado Sea Limited
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo41%
|Real| abaixo do esperado41%
Movimento esperado médio±6.5%
Movimento |real| médio7.6%
Erro médio absoluto2.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 93.07 | ±1.7% | 91.46–94.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 97.43 | ±3.6% | 93.88–100.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 96.50 | ±3.5% | 93.10–99.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 95.10 | ±4.5% | 90.78–99.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 93.65 | ±5.2% | 88.81–98.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 94.95 | ±5.2% | 90.06–99.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 96.11 | ±5.5% | 90.78–101.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 97.26 | ±5.9% | 91.55–102.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 94.88 | ±7.3% | 87.97–101.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 95.30 | ±7.3% | 88.39–102.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 103.92 | ±9.1% | 94.49–113.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 103.92 | ±9.1% | 94.49–113.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 102.21 | ±9.8% | 92.16–112.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 101.98 | ±9.8% | 92.03–111.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 100.96 | ±9.9% | 91.01–110.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 104.53 | ±10.5% | 93.50–115.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 103.78 | ±10.6% | 92.72–114.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 109.84 | ±10.4% | 98.44–121.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 107.42 | ±11.1% | 95.47–119.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 107.46 | ±11.4% | 95.26–119.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 109.23 | ±11.3% | 96.86–121.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 112.10 | ±10.8% | 99.97–124.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 112.92 | ±11.1% | 100.35–125.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 113.43 | ±11.1% | 100.81–126.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 113.42 | ±11.4% | 100.44–126.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 112.48 | ±11.6% | 99.43–125.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 111.06 | ±12.1% | 97.66–124.46 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 112.65 | ±12.1% | 98.97–126.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 93.07 | ±5.6% | 87.82–98.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 97.43 | ±5.8% | 91.78–103.08 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 95.10 → 95.25 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.7% | dentro | 93.65 → 95.25 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.3% | dentro | 94.95 → 95.25 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 96.11 → 95.25 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 97.26 → 95.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +0.4% | dentro | 94.88 → 95.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 95.30 → 95.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -8.3% | fora | 103.92 → 95.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -8.3% | fora | 103.92 → 95.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -6.8% | dentro | 102.21 → 95.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -6.6% | dentro | 101.98 → 95.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -5.7% | dentro | 100.96 → 95.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -8.9% | dentro | 104.53 → 95.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -8.2% | dentro | 103.78 → 95.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -13.3% | fora | 109.84 → 95.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -11.3% | fora | 107.42 → 95.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -11.4% | fora | 107.46 → 95.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -12.8% | fora | 109.23 → 95.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -15.0% | fora | 112.10 → 95.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -15.7% | fora | 112.92 → 95.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -16.0% | fora | 113.43 → 95.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -16.0% | fora | 113.42 → 95.25 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -15.3% | fora | 112.48 → 95.25 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -14.2% | fora | 111.06 → 95.25 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -15.4% | fora | 112.65 → 95.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 94.88 → 95.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 95.30 → 95.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -8.4% | fora | 103.92 → 95.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -8.4% | fora | 103.92 → 95.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -6.9% | fora | 102.21 → 95.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -6.7% | dentro | 101.98 → 95.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -5.7% | dentro | 100.96 → 95.19 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -8.9% | fora | 104.53 → 95.19 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -8.3% | fora | 103.78 → 95.19 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -13.3% | fora | 109.84 → 95.19 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -11.4% | fora | 107.42 → 95.19 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -11.4% | fora | 107.46 → 95.19 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.9% | -12.9% | fora | 109.23 → 95.19 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -15.1% | fora | 112.10 → 95.19 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -15.7% | fora | 112.92 → 95.19 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -16.1% | fora | 113.43 → 95.19 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -16.1% | fora | 113.42 → 95.19 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | -15.4% | fora | 112.48 → 95.19 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -14.3% | fora | 111.06 → 95.19 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -15.5% | fora | 112.65 → 95.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -4.2% | fora | 103.92 → 99.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -4.2% | fora | 103.92 → 99.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -2.6% | dentro | 102.21 → 99.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -2.4% | dentro | 101.98 → 99.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -1.4% | dentro | 100.96 → 99.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -4.8% | dentro | 104.53 → 99.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 103.78 → 99.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -9.4% | fora | 109.84 → 99.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.4% | -7.3% | dentro | 107.42 → 99.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -7.4% | fora | 107.46 → 99.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -8.9% | fora | 109.23 → 99.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | -11.2% | fora | 112.10 → 99.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -11.8% | fora | 112.92 → 99.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -12.2% | fora | 113.43 → 99.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -12.2% | fora | 113.42 → 99.55 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.