SE historial de movimiento esperado Sea Limited
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango43%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado43%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio8.0%
Error medio abs.2.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 88.63 | ±4.1% | 85.00–92.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 93.07 | ±5.6% | 87.82–98.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 97.43 | ±5.8% | 91.78–103.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 96.50 | ±5.9% | 90.85–102.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 95.10 | ±6.5% | 88.94–101.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 93.65 | ±7.3% | 86.78–100.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 94.95 | ±7.2% | 88.12–101.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 96.11 | ±7.4% | 88.96–103.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 97.26 | ±7.6% | 89.86–104.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 94.88 | ±9.1% | 86.20–103.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 95.30 | ±9.1% | 86.62–103.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 103.92 | ±9.7% | 93.79–114.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 103.92 | ±9.7% | 93.79–114.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 102.21 | ±9.7% | 92.33–112.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 101.98 | ±10.6% | 91.18–112.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 100.96 | ±11.3% | 89.56–112.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 104.53 | ±11.3% | 92.70–116.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 103.78 | ±11.3% | 92.00–115.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 109.84 | ±11.1% | 97.64–122.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 107.42 | ±11.9% | 94.59–120.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 107.46 | ±12.5% | 94.06–120.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 109.23 | ±12.2% | 95.96–122.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 112.10 | ±12.1% | 98.53–125.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 112.92 | ±12.0% | 99.35–126.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 113.43 | ±12.0% | 99.78–127.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 113.42 | ±12.1% | 99.72–127.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 88.63 | ±6.4% | 83.00–94.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 93.07 | ±8.1% | 85.56–100.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 97.43 | ±8.0% | 89.59–105.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 96.50 | ±7.6% | 89.12–103.88 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 93.07 → 93.77 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -3.8% | fuera | 97.43 → 93.77 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -2.8% | dentro | 96.50 → 93.77 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -1.4% | dentro | 95.10 → 93.77 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 93.65 → 93.77 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 94.95 → 93.77 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.4% | dentro | 96.11 → 93.77 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -3.6% | dentro | 97.26 → 93.77 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -1.2% | dentro | 94.88 → 93.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -1.6% | dentro | 95.30 → 93.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -9.8% | fuera | 103.92 → 93.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -9.8% | fuera | 103.92 → 93.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -8.3% | dentro | 102.21 → 93.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -8.1% | dentro | 101.98 → 93.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -7.1% | dentro | 100.96 → 93.77 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -10.3% | dentro | 104.53 → 93.77 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -9.6% | dentro | 103.78 → 93.77 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -14.6% | fuera | 109.84 → 93.77 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -12.7% | fuera | 107.42 → 93.77 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -12.7% | fuera | 107.46 → 93.77 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -14.2% | fuera | 109.23 → 93.77 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -16.4% | fuera | 112.10 → 93.77 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -17.0% | fuera | 112.92 → 93.77 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -17.3% | fuera | 113.43 → 93.77 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -17.3% | fuera | 113.42 → 93.77 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -16.6% | fuera | 112.48 → 93.77 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -15.6% | fuera | 111.06 → 93.77 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -16.8% | fuera | 112.65 → 93.77 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 95.10 → 95.25 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.7% | dentro | 93.65 → 95.25 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.3% | dentro | 94.95 → 95.25 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 96.11 → 95.25 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 97.26 → 95.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +0.4% | dentro | 94.88 → 95.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 95.30 → 95.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -8.3% | fuera | 103.92 → 95.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -8.3% | fuera | 103.92 → 95.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -6.8% | dentro | 102.21 → 95.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -6.6% | dentro | 101.98 → 95.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -5.7% | dentro | 100.96 → 95.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -8.9% | dentro | 104.53 → 95.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -8.2% | dentro | 103.78 → 95.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -13.3% | fuera | 109.84 → 95.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -11.3% | fuera | 107.42 → 95.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -11.4% | fuera | 107.46 → 95.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -12.8% | fuera | 109.23 → 95.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -15.0% | fuera | 112.10 → 95.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -15.7% | fuera | 112.92 → 95.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -16.0% | fuera | 113.43 → 95.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -16.0% | fuera | 113.42 → 95.25 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -15.3% | fuera | 112.48 → 95.25 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -14.2% | fuera | 111.06 → 95.25 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -15.4% | fuera | 112.65 → 95.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 94.88 → 95.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 95.30 → 95.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -8.4% | fuera | 103.92 → 95.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -8.4% | fuera | 103.92 → 95.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -6.9% | fuera | 102.21 → 95.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -6.7% | dentro | 101.98 → 95.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -5.7% | dentro | 100.96 → 95.19 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.