RUN histórico de movimento esperado Sunrun Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo85%
|Real| abaixo do esperado85%
Movimento esperado médio±11.1%
Movimento |real| médio7.9%
Erro médio absoluto3.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 6.92 | ±6.4% | 6.47–7.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 7.27 | ±8.0% | 6.69–7.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 7.27 | ±9.0% | 6.62–7.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 7.80 | ±10.1% | 7.01–8.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 7.62 | ±9.6% | 6.89–8.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 7.55 | ±10.7% | 6.74–8.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 7.60 | ±10.4% | 6.81–8.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 7.76 | ±12.6% | 6.79–8.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 7.63 | ±11.3% | 6.77–8.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 7.71 | ±13.2% | 6.70–8.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 7.67 | ±14.9% | 6.53–8.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 8.78 | ±16.5% | 7.33–10.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 8.78 | ±16.5% | 7.33–10.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 8.79 | ±17.3% | 7.26–10.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 8.53 | ±18.0% | 6.99–10.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 8.72 | ±18.2% | 7.14–10.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 8.27 | ±18.6% | 6.73–9.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 8.40 | ±18.6% | 6.84–9.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 8.34 | ±19.1% | 6.74–9.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 8.59 | ±20.1% | 6.87–10.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 8.55 | ±20.9% | 6.76–10.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 8.83 | ±19.8% | 7.08–10.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 9.25 | ±20.3% | 7.37–11.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 8.89 | ±19.9% | 7.12–10.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 8.82 | ±20.3% | 7.03–10.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 8.97 | ±20.9% | 7.10–10.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 6.92 | ±10.3% | 6.21–7.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 7.27 | ±11.6% | 6.43–8.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 7.27 | ±12.4% | 6.37–8.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 7.80 | ±13.0% | 6.79–8.81 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +0.4% | dentro | 7.27 → 7.30 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 7.27 → 7.30 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -6.4% | dentro | 7.80 → 7.30 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -4.2% | dentro | 7.62 → 7.30 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -3.3% | dentro | 7.55 → 7.30 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -3.9% | dentro | 7.60 → 7.30 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -6.0% | dentro | 7.76 → 7.30 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -4.3% | dentro | 7.63 → 7.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -5.3% | dentro | 7.71 → 7.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -4.8% | dentro | 7.67 → 7.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | -16.9% | fora | 8.78 → 7.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | -16.9% | fora | 8.78 → 7.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | -17.0% | fora | 8.79 → 7.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.6% | -14.4% | dentro | 8.53 → 7.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.1% | -16.3% | fora | 8.72 → 7.30 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -11.7% | dentro | 8.27 → 7.30 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.5% | -13.1% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.30 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -12.5% | dentro | 8.34 → 7.30 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.3% | -15.0% | dentro | 8.59 → 7.30 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.1% | -14.6% | dentro | 8.55 → 7.30 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.4% | -17.3% | dentro | 8.83 → 7.30 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.5% | -21.1% | fora | 9.25 → 7.30 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.4% | -17.9% | dentro | 8.89 → 7.30 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.5% | -17.3% | dentro | 8.82 → 7.30 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.1% | -18.6% | dentro | 8.97 → 7.30 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.7% | -18.8% | dentro | 8.99 → 7.30 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.4% | -13.1% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.30 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.3% | -15.9% | dentro | 8.68 → 7.30 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +0.3% | dentro | 7.62 → 7.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +1.2% | dentro | 7.55 → 7.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.5% | dentro | 7.60 → 7.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 7.76 → 7.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 7.63 → 7.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -0.9% | dentro | 7.71 → 7.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 7.67 → 7.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -13.0% | fora | 8.78 → 7.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -13.0% | fora | 8.78 → 7.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -13.1% | dentro | 8.79 → 7.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | -10.5% | dentro | 8.53 → 7.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | -12.4% | dentro | 8.72 → 7.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | -7.6% | dentro | 8.27 → 7.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -9.1% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | -8.4% | dentro | 8.34 → 7.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.0% | -11.1% | dentro | 8.59 → 7.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -10.6% | dentro | 8.55 → 7.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.8% | -13.5% | dentro | 8.83 → 7.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.2% | -17.4% | fora | 9.25 → 7.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.7% | -14.1% | dentro | 8.89 → 7.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.8% | -13.4% | dentro | 8.82 → 7.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.9% | -14.8% | dentro | 8.97 → 7.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.0% | -15.0% | dentro | 8.99 → 7.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.4% | -9.0% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -12.0% | dentro | 8.68 → 7.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -0.0% | dentro | 7.71 → 7.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 7.67 → 7.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -12.2% | fora | 8.78 → 7.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -12.2% | fora | 8.78 → 7.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -12.3% | fora | 8.79 → 7.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -9.6% | dentro | 8.53 → 7.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -11.6% | fora | 8.72 → 7.71 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.