RUN historial de movimiento esperado Sunrun Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango86%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado86%
Movimiento esperado promedio±10.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.8%
Error medio abs.3.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 7.27 | ±3.4% | 7.03–7.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 7.27 | ±5.0% | 6.91–7.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 7.80 | ±6.8% | 7.27–8.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 7.62 | ±7.2% | 7.07–8.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 7.55 | ±7.2% | 7.01–8.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 7.60 | ±7.8% | 7.01–8.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 7.76 | ±9.5% | 7.03–8.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 7.63 | ±8.5% | 6.98–8.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 7.71 | ±10.5% | 6.90–8.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 7.67 | ±10.8% | 6.84–8.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 8.78 | ±14.7% | 7.49–10.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 8.78 | ±14.7% | 7.49–10.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 8.79 | ±15.5% | 7.43–10.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 8.53 | ±16.6% | 7.12–9.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 8.72 | ±16.1% | 7.32–10.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 8.27 | ±16.7% | 6.89–9.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 8.40 | ±16.5% | 7.01–9.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 8.34 | ±16.7% | 6.95–9.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 8.59 | ±18.3% | 7.01–10.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 8.55 | ±19.1% | 6.92–10.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 8.83 | ±17.4% | 7.29–10.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 9.25 | ±18.5% | 7.54–10.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 8.89 | ±18.4% | 7.25–10.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 8.82 | ±18.5% | 7.19–10.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 8.97 | ±19.1% | 7.25–10.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 8.99 | ±19.7% | 7.22–10.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 8.40 | ±17.4% | 6.94–9.86 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 8.68 | ±19.3% | 7.00–10.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 7.27 | ±8.0% | 6.69–7.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 7.27 | ±9.0% | 6.62–7.92 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +0.3% | dentro | 7.62 → 7.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +1.2% | dentro | 7.55 → 7.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.5% | dentro | 7.60 → 7.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 7.76 → 7.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 7.63 → 7.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -0.9% | dentro | 7.71 → 7.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 7.67 → 7.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -13.0% | fuera | 8.78 → 7.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -13.0% | fuera | 8.78 → 7.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -13.1% | dentro | 8.79 → 7.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | -10.5% | dentro | 8.53 → 7.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | -12.4% | dentro | 8.72 → 7.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | -7.6% | dentro | 8.27 → 7.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -9.1% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | -8.4% | dentro | 8.34 → 7.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.0% | -11.1% | dentro | 8.59 → 7.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -10.6% | dentro | 8.55 → 7.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.8% | -13.5% | dentro | 8.83 → 7.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.2% | -17.4% | fuera | 9.25 → 7.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.7% | -14.1% | dentro | 8.89 → 7.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.8% | -13.4% | dentro | 8.82 → 7.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.9% | -14.8% | dentro | 8.97 → 7.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.0% | -15.0% | dentro | 8.99 → 7.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.4% | -9.0% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -12.0% | dentro | 8.68 → 7.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -0.0% | dentro | 7.71 → 7.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 7.67 → 7.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -12.2% | fuera | 8.78 → 7.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -12.2% | fuera | 8.78 → 7.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -12.3% | fuera | 8.79 → 7.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -9.6% | dentro | 8.53 → 7.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -11.6% | fuera | 8.72 → 7.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -6.8% | dentro | 8.27 → 7.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | -8.2% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -7.5% | dentro | 8.34 → 7.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.1% | -10.2% | dentro | 8.59 → 7.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.1% | -9.8% | dentro | 8.55 → 7.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.0% | -12.7% | dentro | 8.83 → 7.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.4% | -16.6% | fuera | 9.25 → 7.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.3% | -13.3% | dentro | 8.89 → 7.71 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.6% | -12.6% | dentro | 8.82 → 7.71 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.4% | -14.0% | dentro | 8.97 → 7.71 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.7% | -14.2% | dentro | 8.99 → 7.71 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.3% | -8.2% | dentro | 8.40 → 7.71 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.7% | -11.2% | dentro | 8.68 → 7.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -7.6% | fuera | 8.78 → 8.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -7.6% | fuera | 8.78 → 8.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -7.7% | fuera | 8.79 → 8.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -5.0% | dentro | 8.53 → 8.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.5% | -7.0% | dentro | 8.72 → 8.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | -1.9% | dentro | 8.27 → 8.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.5% | -3.5% | dentro | 8.40 → 8.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.8% | -2.8% | dentro | 8.34 → 8.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.3% | -5.6% | dentro | 8.59 → 8.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.8% | -5.1% | dentro | 8.55 → 8.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.9% | -8.2% | dentro | 8.83 → 8.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.8% | -12.3% | dentro | 9.25 → 8.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.6% | -8.8% | dentro | 8.89 → 8.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.5% | -8.1% | dentro | 8.82 → 8.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.3% | -9.6% | dentro | 8.97 → 8.11 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.