RIVN historial de movimiento esperado Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango70%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado70%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio8.0%
Error medio abs.3.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 12.34 | ±4.7% | 11.76–12.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 12.44 | ±5.7% | 11.73–13.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 12.92 | ±6.2% | 12.12–13.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 13.41 | ±6.5% | 12.54–14.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 13.97 | ±7.0% | 12.99–14.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 14.28 | ±7.8% | 13.16–15.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 14.39 | ±8.2% | 13.21–15.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 14.52 | ±8.8% | 13.24–15.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 14.59 | ±8.1% | 13.40–15.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 14.31 | ±10.3% | 12.84–15.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 14.80 | ±11.3% | 13.13–16.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 15.13 | ±12.2% | 13.29–16.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 15.15 | ±12.2% | 13.30–17.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 15.39 | ±11.8% | 13.57–17.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 15.04 | ±14.7% | 12.83–17.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 15.45 | ±15.6% | 13.04–17.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 15.24 | ±13.7% | 13.16–17.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 15.55 | ±15.3% | 13.18–17.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 15.88 | ±13.9% | 13.67–18.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 16.03 | ±15.5% | 13.54–18.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 16.07 | ±16.6% | 13.40–18.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 16.00 | ±16.8% | 13.32–18.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 16.13 | ±12.2% | 14.17–18.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 15.69 | ±16.1% | 13.17–18.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 15.73 | ±16.0% | 13.21–18.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 15.87 | ±17.1% | 13.15–18.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 12.34 | ±11.1% | 10.96–13.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 12.44 | ±12.6% | 10.87–14.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 12.92 | ±12.6% | 11.29–14.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 13.41 | ±12.8% | 11.70–15.12 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 12.44 → 12.42 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -3.9% | fuera | 12.92 → 12.42 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -7.4% | fuera | 13.41 → 12.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -11.1% | fuera | 13.97 → 12.42 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -13.1% | fuera | 14.28 → 12.42 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -13.7% | fuera | 14.39 → 12.42 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -14.5% | fuera | 14.52 → 12.42 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -14.9% | fuera | 14.59 → 12.42 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -13.2% | fuera | 14.31 → 12.42 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -16.1% | fuera | 14.80 → 12.42 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -17.9% | fuera | 15.13 → 12.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -18.0% | fuera | 15.15 → 12.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -19.3% | fuera | 15.39 → 12.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -17.4% | fuera | 15.04 → 12.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -19.6% | fuera | 15.45 → 12.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -18.5% | fuera | 15.24 → 12.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -20.1% | fuera | 15.55 → 12.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -21.8% | fuera | 15.88 → 12.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -22.5% | fuera | 16.03 → 12.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | -22.7% | fuera | 16.07 → 12.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -22.4% | fuera | 16.00 → 12.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | -23.0% | fuera | 16.13 → 12.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -20.8% | fuera | 15.69 → 12.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -21.1% | fuera | 15.73 → 12.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.0% | -21.7% | fuera | 15.87 → 12.42 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -20.3% | fuera | 15.59 → 12.42 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -20.0% | fuera | 15.53 → 12.42 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -22.7% | fuera | 16.06 → 12.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 13.97 → 13.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 14.28 → 13.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.0% | dentro | 14.39 → 13.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -3.9% | fuera | 14.52 → 13.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -4.3% | dentro | 14.59 → 13.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -2.4% | dentro | 14.31 → 13.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -5.7% | dentro | 14.80 → 13.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -7.7% | dentro | 15.13 → 13.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -7.9% | dentro | 15.15 → 13.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -9.3% | dentro | 15.39 → 13.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -7.2% | dentro | 15.04 → 13.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -9.6% | dentro | 15.45 → 13.96 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -8.4% | dentro | 15.24 → 13.96 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -10.2% | dentro | 15.55 → 13.96 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -12.1% | dentro | 15.88 → 13.96 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -12.9% | fuera | 16.03 → 13.96 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -13.1% | fuera | 16.07 → 13.96 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -12.8% | fuera | 16.00 → 13.96 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -13.5% | fuera | 16.13 → 13.96 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -11.0% | dentro | 15.69 → 13.96 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -11.3% | dentro | 15.73 → 13.96 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -12.0% | dentro | 15.87 → 13.96 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -10.5% | dentro | 15.59 → 13.96 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.7% | -10.1% | dentro | 15.53 → 13.96 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -13.1% | dentro | 16.06 → 13.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 14.31 → 14.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -3.4% | dentro | 14.80 → 14.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -5.5% | dentro | 15.13 → 14.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -5.6% | dentro | 15.15 → 14.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -7.1% | dentro | 15.39 → 14.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -4.9% | dentro | 15.04 → 14.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | -7.4% | dentro | 15.45 → 14.30 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.