RIOT 预期波动历史 Riot Platforms, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内52%
|实际值| 低于预期值52%
平均预期波动幅度±11.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度12.2%
平均绝对误差6.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 13.75 | ±1.7% | 13.52–13.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 15.06 | ±6.6% | 14.07–16.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 16.70 | ±6.8% | 15.56–17.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 16.92 | ±7.5% | 15.65–18.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 16.93 | ±9.1% | 15.38–18.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 18.53 | ±9.3% | 16.81–20.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 19.00 | ±9.8% | 17.14–20.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 19.30 | ±10.1% | 17.34–21.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 19.66 | ±11.4% | 17.42–21.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 19.61 | ±12.5% | 17.17–22.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 25.00 | ±16.8% | 20.80–29.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 24.87 | ±16.9% | 20.68–29.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 24.18 | ±16.9% | 20.09–28.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 23.75 | ±17.9% | 19.50–28.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 21.89 | ±18.0% | 17.95–25.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 20.36 | ±18.0% | 16.69–24.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 19.70 | ±19.1% | 15.95–23.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 20.90 | ±19.5% | 16.83–24.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 21.40 | ±19.4% | 17.25–25.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 20.97 | ±20.5% | 16.68–25.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 22.02 | ±21.3% | 17.32–26.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 22.26 | ±21.5% | 17.47–27.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 21.63 | ±22.9% | 16.68–26.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 21.69 | ±22.8% | 16.74–26.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 21.00 | ±23.0% | 16.18–25.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 18.61 | ±22.0% | 14.52–22.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 17.81 | ±22.3% | 13.84–21.79 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 18.95 | ±22.5% | 14.69–23.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 13.75 | ±10.7% | 12.28–15.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 15.06 | ±11.2% | 13.37–16.75 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 16.92 → 16.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 16.93 → 16.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 18.53 → 16.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -11.1% | 区间外 | 19.00 → 16.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 19.30 → 16.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -14.1% | 区间外 | 19.66 → 16.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -13.9% | 区间外 | 19.61 → 16.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | -32.4% | 区间外 | 25.00 → 16.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -32.1% | 区间外 | 24.87 → 16.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | -30.1% | 区间外 | 24.18 → 16.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | -28.9% | 区间外 | 23.75 → 16.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | -22.8% | 区间外 | 21.89 → 16.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -17.0% | 区间外 | 20.36 → 16.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | -14.3% | 区间内 | 19.70 → 16.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.1% | -19.2% | 区间外 | 20.90 → 16.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -21.1% | 区间外 | 21.40 → 16.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.0% | -19.5% | 区间外 | 20.97 → 16.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.0% | -23.3% | 区间外 | 22.02 → 16.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.2% | -24.1% | 区间外 | 22.26 → 16.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.0% | -21.9% | 区间外 | 21.63 → 16.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.9% | -22.1% | 区间外 | 21.69 → 16.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.4% | -19.6% | 区间内 | 21.00 → 16.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.0% | -9.3% | 区间内 | 18.61 → 16.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.7% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 17.81 → 16.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.3% | -10.9% | 区间内 | 18.95 → 16.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 19.66 → 19.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 19.61 → 19.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.7% | -21.1% | 区间外 | 25.00 → 19.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.7% | -20.7% | 区间外 | 24.87 → 19.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | -18.4% | 区间外 | 24.18 → 19.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.4% | -16.9% | 区间外 | 23.75 → 19.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.9% | -9.9% | 区间内 | 21.89 → 19.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.7% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 20.36 → 19.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.0% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 19.70 → 19.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.8% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 20.90 → 19.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.7% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 21.40 → 19.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.0% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 20.97 → 19.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.4% | -10.4% | 区间内 | 22.02 → 19.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.6% | -11.4% | 区间内 | 22.26 → 19.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.1% | -8.8% | 区间内 | 21.63 → 19.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.1% | -9.0% | 区间内 | 21.69 → 19.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.7% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 21.00 → 19.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.8% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 18.61 → 19.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.0% | +10.8% | 区间内 | 17.81 → 19.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.1% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 18.95 → 19.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 25.00 → 23.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -7.5% | 区间外 | 24.87 → 23.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.4% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 24.18 → 23.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 23.75 → 23.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.5% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 21.89 → 23.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.4% | +13.0% | 区间外 | 20.36 → 23.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.7% | +16.8% | 区间外 | 19.70 → 23.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.7% | +10.1% | 区间内 | 20.90 → 23.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.3% | +7.5% | 区间内 | 21.40 → 23.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.0% | +9.7% | 区间内 | 20.97 → 23.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.5% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 22.02 → 23.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±14.4% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 22.26 → 23.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.7% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 21.63 → 23.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.7% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 21.69 → 23.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.9% | +9.5% | 区间内 | 21.00 → 23.00 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.