RIO 预期波动历史 Rio Tinto Group
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项43
收盘价处于区间内44%
|实际值| 低于预期值44%
平均预期波动幅度±5.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.1%
平均绝对误差1.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 89.77 | ±7.1% | 83.42–96.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 90.21 | ±7.7% | 83.26–97.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 91.44 | ±7.7% | 84.36–98.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 94.12 | ±7.9% | 86.72–101.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 93.34 | ±8.4% | 85.54–101.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 92.88 | ±8.3% | 85.13–100.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 93.08 | ±8.7% | 84.98–101.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 95.82 | ±8.7% | 87.52–104.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 94.21 | ±8.9% | 85.81–102.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 92.87 | ±9.4% | 84.17–101.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 94.17 | ±9.3% | 85.42–102.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 97.45 | ±10.1% | 87.60–107.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 96.47 | ±9.9% | 86.92–106.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 97.28 | ±10.2% | 87.33–107.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 98.04 | ±10.2% | 88.04–108.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 89.77 | ±9.6% | 81.17–98.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 90.21 | ±10.0% | 81.16–99.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 91.44 | ±9.8% | 82.44–100.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Dec 18 | 66 | 94.12 | ±10.4% | 84.37–103.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Dec 18 | 70 | 93.34 | ±10.6% | 83.49–103.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Dec 18 | 71 | 92.88 | ±10.6% | 83.03–102.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Dec 18 | 72 | 93.08 | ±10.9% | 82.94–103.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Dec 18 | 73 | 95.82 | ±10.9% | 85.42–106.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Dec 18 | 74 | 94.21 | ±11.0% | 83.81–104.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Dec 18 | 77 | 92.87 | ±11.5% | 82.22–103.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Dec 18 | 78 | 94.17 | ±11.4% | 83.42–104.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Dec 18 | 86 | 97.45 | ±11.8% | 86.00–108.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Dec 18 | 87 | 96.47 | ±11.8% | 85.12–107.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Dec 18 | 88 | 97.28 | ±12.1% | 85.53–109.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Dec 18 | 91 | 98.04 | ±12.2% | 86.04–110.04 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 90.21 → 90.32 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 91.44 → 90.32 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 94.12 → 90.32 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 93.34 → 90.32 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 92.88 → 90.32 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 93.08 → 90.32 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 95.82 → 90.32 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 94.21 → 90.32 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 92.87 → 90.32 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 94.17 → 90.32 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 97.45 → 90.32 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -6.4% | 区间外 | 96.47 → 90.32 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 97.28 → 90.32 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 98.04 → 90.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 96.70 → 90.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 97.99 → 90.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 96.81 → 90.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -9.6% | 区间外 | 99.96 → 90.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -9.1% | 区间外 | 99.39 → 90.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -9.1% | 区间外 | 99.31 → 90.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 103.54 → 90.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 104.83 → 90.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 103.27 → 90.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 102.84 → 90.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 102.82 → 90.32 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 102.28 → 90.32 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 102.50 → 90.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -12.6% | 区间外 | 103.30 → 90.32 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.5% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 98.04 → 97.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 96.70 → 97.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 97.99 → 97.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 96.81 → 97.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.5% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 99.96 → 97.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 99.39 → 97.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 99.31 → 97.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | -6.0% | 区间外 | 103.54 → 97.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 104.83 → 97.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.5% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 103.27 → 97.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.0% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 102.84 → 97.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.0% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 102.82 → 97.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.5% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 102.28 → 97.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.6% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 102.50 → 97.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.6% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 103.30 → 97.37 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.