RDDT 预期波动历史 Reddit, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内88%
|实际值| 低于预期值88%
平均预期波动幅度±9.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.5%
平均绝对误差5.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 155.14 | ±5.9% | 145.94–164.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 155.61 | ±7.0% | 144.74–166.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 147.80 | ±8.3% | 135.60–160.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 155.55 | ±8.3% | 142.70–168.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 159.50 | ±8.6% | 145.82–173.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 156.04 | ±9.2% | 141.64–170.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 152.72 | ±9.4% | 138.29–167.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 149.02 | ±9.7% | 134.50–163.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 150.37 | ±10.3% | 134.85–165.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 147.49 | ±10.8% | 131.51–163.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 149.31 | ±11.2% | 132.66–165.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 155.55 | ±13.6% | 134.45–176.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 155.25 | ±13.6% | 134.15–176.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 158.50 | ±13.9% | 136.50–180.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 151.75 | ±13.9% | 130.62–172.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 152.90 | ±14.0% | 131.43–174.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 157.81 | ±15.0% | 134.11–181.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 159.55 | ±15.3% | 135.12–183.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 162.15 | ±15.6% | 136.88–187.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 157.75 | ±15.5% | 133.25–182.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 155.43 | ±16.9% | 129.23–181.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 146.64 | ±16.5% | 122.49–170.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 149.92 | ±17.2% | 124.19–175.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 154.50 | ±17.2% | 127.97–181.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 154.46 | ±17.2% | 127.94–180.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 156.00 | ±16.9% | 129.65–182.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 155.14 | ±14.6% | 132.56–177.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 155.61 | ±15.6% | 131.26–179.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 147.80 | ±12.6% | 129.12–166.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 155.55 | ±11.9% | 137.07–174.03 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 155.61 → 156.14 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 147.80 → 156.14 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 155.55 → 156.14 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 159.50 → 156.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 156.04 → 156.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 152.72 → 156.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 149.02 → 156.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 150.37 → 156.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 147.49 → 156.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 149.31 → 156.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 155.55 → 156.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 155.25 → 156.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 158.50 → 156.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 151.75 → 156.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 152.90 → 156.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 157.81 → 156.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 159.55 → 156.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 162.15 → 156.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.1% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 157.75 → 156.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 155.43 → 156.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 146.64 → 156.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 149.92 → 156.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 154.50 → 156.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 154.46 → 156.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 156.00 → 156.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.0% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 156.99 → 156.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.9% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 144.75 → 156.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 148.19 → 156.14 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 159.50 → 159.91 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 156.04 → 159.91 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 152.72 → 159.91 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 149.02 → 159.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 150.37 → 159.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 147.49 → 159.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 149.31 → 159.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 155.55 → 159.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 155.25 → 159.91 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 158.50 → 159.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 151.75 → 159.91 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 152.90 → 159.91 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 157.81 → 159.91 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 159.55 → 159.91 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 162.15 → 159.91 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 157.75 → 159.91 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 155.43 → 159.91 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +9.0% | 区间内 | 146.64 → 159.91 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 149.92 → 159.91 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 154.50 → 159.91 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 154.46 → 159.91 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 156.00 → 159.91 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 156.99 → 159.91 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | +10.5% | 区间内 | 144.75 → 159.91 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 148.19 → 159.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 147.49 → 147.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 149.31 → 147.86 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 155.55 → 147.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 155.25 → 147.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 158.50 → 147.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 151.75 → 147.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 152.90 → 147.86 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.