RDDT historial de movimiento esperado Reddit, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango86%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado86%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.7%
Error medio abs.5.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 155.61 | ±0.9% | 154.20–157.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 147.80 | ±4.3% | 141.50–154.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 155.55 | ±4.7% | 148.18–162.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 159.50 | ±5.6% | 150.60–168.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 156.04 | ±6.5% | 145.87–166.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 152.72 | ±6.9% | 142.22–163.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 149.02 | ±7.1% | 138.50–159.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 150.37 | ±7.7% | 138.80–161.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 147.49 | ±8.3% | 135.22–159.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 149.31 | ±8.9% | 135.96–162.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 155.55 | ±11.9% | 137.10–174.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 155.25 | ±11.9% | 136.80–173.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 158.50 | ±12.1% | 139.28–177.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 151.75 | ±12.2% | 133.30–170.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 152.90 | ±12.6% | 133.68–172.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 157.81 | ±13.5% | 136.44–179.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 159.55 | ±13.8% | 137.47–181.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 162.15 | ±13.7% | 139.97–184.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 157.75 | ±14.1% | 135.47–180.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 155.43 | ±15.1% | 131.91–178.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 146.64 | ±15.1% | 124.47–168.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 149.92 | ±15.6% | 126.50–173.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 154.50 | ±15.8% | 130.03–178.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 154.46 | ±15.8% | 129.99–178.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 156.00 | ±15.6% | 131.70–180.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 156.99 | ±16.0% | 131.94–182.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 144.75 | ±15.9% | 121.80–167.70 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 148.19 | ±15.7% | 124.94–171.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 155.61 | ±7.0% | 144.74–166.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 147.80 | ±8.3% | 135.60–160.00 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 159.50 → 159.91 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.5% | dentro | 156.04 → 159.91 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +4.7% | fuera | 152.72 → 159.91 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +7.3% | fuera | 149.02 → 159.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +6.3% | fuera | 150.37 → 159.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +8.4% | fuera | 147.49 → 159.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +7.1% | fuera | 149.31 → 159.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +2.8% | dentro | 155.55 → 159.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +3.0% | dentro | 155.25 → 159.91 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 158.50 → 159.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +5.4% | dentro | 151.75 → 159.91 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +4.6% | dentro | 152.90 → 159.91 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +1.3% | dentro | 157.81 → 159.91 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 159.55 → 159.91 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -1.4% | dentro | 162.15 → 159.91 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 157.75 → 159.91 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +2.9% | dentro | 155.43 → 159.91 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +9.0% | dentro | 146.64 → 159.91 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +6.7% | dentro | 149.92 → 159.91 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +3.5% | dentro | 154.50 → 159.91 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +3.5% | dentro | 154.46 → 159.91 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +2.5% | dentro | 156.00 → 159.91 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +1.9% | dentro | 156.99 → 159.91 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | +10.5% | dentro | 144.75 → 159.91 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +7.9% | dentro | 148.19 → 159.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.3% | dentro | 147.49 → 147.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 149.31 → 147.86 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 155.55 → 147.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -4.8% | dentro | 155.25 → 147.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -6.7% | dentro | 158.50 → 147.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | -2.6% | dentro | 151.75 → 147.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -3.3% | dentro | 152.90 → 147.86 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -6.3% | dentro | 157.81 → 147.86 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | -7.3% | dentro | 159.55 → 147.86 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.5% | -8.8% | dentro | 162.15 → 147.86 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -6.3% | dentro | 157.75 → 147.86 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.9% | -4.9% | dentro | 155.43 → 147.86 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.0% | +0.8% | dentro | 146.64 → 147.86 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -1.4% | dentro | 149.92 → 147.86 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -4.3% | dentro | 154.50 → 147.86 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -4.3% | dentro | 154.46 → 147.86 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.3% | -5.2% | dentro | 156.00 → 147.86 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -5.8% | dentro | 156.99 → 147.86 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.9% | +2.1% | dentro | 144.75 → 147.86 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 148.19 → 147.86 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -3.7% | dentro | 155.55 → 149.84 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 155.25 → 149.84 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -5.5% | fuera | 158.50 → 149.84 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -1.3% | dentro | 151.75 → 149.84 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -2.0% | dentro | 152.90 → 149.84 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -5.0% | dentro | 157.81 → 149.84 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -6.1% | dentro | 159.55 → 149.84 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -7.6% | dentro | 162.15 → 149.84 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | -5.0% | dentro | 157.75 → 149.84 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.9% | -3.6% | dentro | 155.43 → 149.84 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.9% | +2.2% | dentro | 146.64 → 149.84 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 149.92 → 149.84 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 154.50 → 149.84 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 154.46 → 149.84 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.9% | -3.9% | dentro | 156.00 → 149.84 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.