RCL 预期波动历史 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内60%
|实际值| 低于预期值60%
平均预期波动幅度±6.1%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.0%
平均绝对误差2.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 282.32 | ±3.8% | 271.62–293.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 277.05 | ±4.9% | 263.40–290.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 274.31 | ±5.4% | 259.46–289.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 281.51 | ±5.2% | 266.76–296.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 282.26 | ±5.4% | 266.96–297.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 281.38 | ±6.9% | 262.04–300.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 282.66 | ±7.1% | 262.71–302.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 288.78 | ±7.1% | 268.23–309.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 274.67 | ±7.5% | 253.97–295.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 278.42 | ±8.1% | 255.87–300.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 270.08 | ±8.4% | 247.43–292.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 237.25 | ±9.9% | 213.85–260.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 232.40 | ±10.2% | 208.65–256.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 251.32 | ±9.4% | 227.62–275.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 246.64 | ±9.8% | 222.59–270.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 250.36 | ±9.6% | 226.36–274.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 252.16 | ±10.0% | 227.01–277.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 250.70 | ±10.0% | 225.55–275.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 253.84 | ±9.9% | 228.78–278.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 261.01 | ±10.1% | 234.66–287.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 258.74 | ±10.7% | 231.14–286.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 259.35 | ±10.5% | 232.19–286.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 265.00 | ±10.7% | 236.55–293.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 265.25 | ±11.0% | 235.95–294.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 265.32 | ±10.9% | 236.47–294.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 264.87 | ±11.0% | 235.62–294.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 282.32 | ±8.8% | 257.37–307.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 277.05 | ±9.7% | 250.15–303.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 274.31 | ±9.4% | 248.41–300.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 281.51 | ±9.4% | 255.01–308.01 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 277.05 → 277.68 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 274.31 → 277.68 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 281.51 → 277.68 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 282.26 → 277.68 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 281.38 → 277.68 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 282.66 → 277.68 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 288.78 → 277.68 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 274.67 → 277.68 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 278.42 → 277.68 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 270.08 → 277.68 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +17.0% | 区间外 | 237.25 → 277.68 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +19.5% | 区间外 | 232.40 → 277.68 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +10.5% | 区间外 | 251.32 → 277.68 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +12.6% | 区间外 | 246.64 → 277.68 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +10.9% | 区间外 | 250.36 → 277.68 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 252.16 → 277.68 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +10.8% | 区间外 | 250.70 → 277.68 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 253.84 → 277.68 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 261.01 → 277.68 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +7.3% | 区间内 | 258.74 → 277.68 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +7.1% | 区间内 | 259.35 → 277.68 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 265.00 → 277.68 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 265.25 → 277.68 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 265.32 → 277.68 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 264.87 → 277.68 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 266.25 → 277.68 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 265.80 → 277.68 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 270.21 → 277.68 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 282.26 → 282.26 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 281.38 → 282.26 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 282.66 → 282.26 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 288.78 → 282.26 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 274.67 → 282.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 278.42 → 282.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 270.08 → 282.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +19.0% | 区间外 | 237.25 → 282.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +21.5% | 区间外 | 232.40 → 282.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +12.3% | 区间外 | 251.32 → 282.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +14.4% | 区间外 | 246.64 → 282.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +12.7% | 区间外 | 250.36 → 282.26 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +11.9% | 区间外 | 252.16 → 282.26 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +12.6% | 区间外 | 250.70 → 282.26 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +11.2% | 区间外 | 253.84 → 282.26 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 261.01 → 282.26 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +9.1% | 区间外 | 258.74 → 282.26 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +8.8% | 区间外 | 259.35 → 282.26 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 265.00 → 282.26 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 265.25 → 282.26 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 265.32 → 282.26 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 264.87 → 282.26 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 266.25 → 282.26 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +6.2% | 区间内 | 265.80 → 282.26 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 270.21 → 282.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 278.42 → 277.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | +2.8% | 区间外 | 270.08 → 277.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +17.1% | 区间外 | 237.25 → 277.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +19.5% | 区间外 | 232.40 → 277.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +10.5% | 区间外 | 251.32 → 277.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | +12.6% | 区间外 | 246.64 → 277.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +10.9% | 区间外 | 250.36 → 277.74 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.