QQQ historial de movimiento esperado Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango39%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado39%
Movimiento esperado promedio±2.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.7%
Error medio abs.1.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 719.09 | ±0.1% | 718.55–719.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 709.84 | ±1.4% | 699.98–719.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 727.51 | ±1.7% | 715.20–739.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 743.78 | ±1.6% | 732.07–755.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 751.40 | ±1.8% | 737.66–765.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 748.15 | ±2.2% | 731.70–764.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 758.04 | ±2.2% | 741.51–774.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 760.00 | ±2.3% | 742.23–777.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 756.35 | ±2.6% | 736.94–775.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 20 | 1 | 719.09 | ±0.9% | 712.48–725.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 20 | 4 | 709.84 | ±1.8% | 697.00–722.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 20 | 6 | 727.51 | ±1.9% | 713.65–741.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | 7 | 743.78 | ±1.7% | 730.87–756.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 20 | 11 | 751.40 | ±2.0% | 736.60–766.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 20 | 12 | 748.15 | ±2.3% | 730.62–765.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 20 | 13 | 758.04 | ±2.3% | 740.50–775.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 20 | 14 | 760.00 | ±2.5% | 741.24–778.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 719.09 | ±1.4% | 709.27–728.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 709.84 | ±2.1% | 694.68–725.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 727.51 | ±2.1% | 712.10–742.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 743.78 | ±1.9% | 729.49–758.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 751.40 | ±2.1% | 735.41–767.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 748.15 | ±2.5% | 729.45–766.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 758.04 | ±2.4% | 739.48–776.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 22 | 3 | 719.09 | ±1.7% | 706.79–731.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 22 | 6 | 709.84 | ±2.4% | 692.80–726.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 22 | 8 | 727.51 | ±2.3% | 710.68–744.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 22 | 9 | 743.78 | ±2.1% | 728.19–759.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 22 | 13 | 751.40 | ±2.3% | 734.45–768.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 22 | 14 | 748.15 | ±2.6% | 728.66–767.63 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 709.84 → 709.80 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | -2.4% | fuera | 727.51 → 709.80 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | -4.6% | fuera | 743.78 → 709.80 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -5.5% | fuera | 751.40 → 709.80 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | -5.1% | fuera | 748.15 → 709.80 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | -6.4% | fuera | 758.04 → 709.80 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -6.6% | fuera | 760.00 → 709.80 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -6.2% | fuera | 756.35 → 709.80 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -5.3% | fuera | 749.23 → 709.80 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -4.3% | fuera | 741.61 → 709.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -5.1% | fuera | 748.32 → 709.80 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -4.9% | fuera | 746.70 → 709.80 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -4.3% | fuera | 741.39 → 709.80 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -1.8% | dentro | 722.62 → 709.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 716.51 → 709.80 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +0.7% | dentro | 705.18 → 709.80 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +0.7% | dentro | 704.90 → 709.80 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 709.71 → 709.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -0.7% | dentro | 715.00 → 709.80 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 708.81 → 709.80 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 716.01 → 709.80 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -1.1% | dentro | 717.99 → 709.80 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -1.1% | dentro | 717.50 → 709.80 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -1.1% | dentro | 717.76 → 709.80 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 717.08 → 709.80 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 709.20 → 709.80 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 707.67 → 709.80 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -1.0% | dentro | 716.65 → 709.80 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 727.51 → 728.00 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.1% | -2.1% | fuera | 743.78 → 728.00 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.4% | -3.1% | fuera | 751.40 → 728.00 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.8% | -2.7% | fuera | 748.15 → 728.00 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.8% | -4.0% | fuera | 758.04 → 728.00 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.0% | -4.2% | fuera | 760.00 → 728.00 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.2% | -3.7% | fuera | 756.35 → 728.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.5% | -2.8% | fuera | 749.23 → 728.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.0% | -1.8% | dentro | 741.61 → 728.00 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.2% | +0.2% | fuera | 727.51 → 728.95 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.9% | -2.0% | fuera | 743.78 → 728.95 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.2% | -3.0% | fuera | 751.40 → 728.95 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -2.6% | fuera | 748.15 → 728.95 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -3.8% | fuera | 758.04 → 728.95 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.8% | -4.1% | fuera | 760.00 → 728.95 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.0% | -3.6% | fuera | 756.35 → 728.95 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | -2.7% | fuera | 749.23 → 728.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | -1.7% | dentro | 741.61 → 728.95 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 743.78 → 743.57 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.9% | -1.0% | fuera | 751.40 → 743.57 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 748.15 → 743.57 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.4% | -1.9% | fuera | 758.04 → 743.57 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.6% | -2.2% | fuera | 760.00 → 743.57 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.8% | -1.7% | dentro | 756.35 → 743.57 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.1% | -0.8% | dentro | 749.23 → 743.57 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 741.61 → 743.57 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±0.6% | -0.7% | fuera | 751.40 → 746.04 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 748.15 → 746.04 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.2% | -1.6% | fuera | 758.04 → 746.04 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.4% | -1.8% | fuera | 760.00 → 746.04 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.6% | -1.4% | dentro | 756.35 → 746.04 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.0% | -0.4% | dentro | 749.23 → 746.04 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.