PYPL 预期波动历史 PayPal Holdings, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内79%
|实际值| 低于预期值79%
平均预期波动幅度±5.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.2%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 56.32 | ±2.8% | 54.72–57.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 56.52 | ±3.3% | 54.66–58.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 56.01 | ±4.0% | 53.78–58.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 56.06 | ±4.4% | 53.59–58.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 55.47 | ±4.8% | 52.80–58.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 54.61 | ±5.3% | 51.71–57.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 54.82 | ±5.5% | 51.81–57.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 54.46 | ±5.5% | 51.47–57.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 54.01 | ±6.3% | 50.62–57.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 52.68 | ±6.2% | 49.43–55.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 53.17 | ±6.8% | 49.57–56.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 53.01 | ±8.1% | 48.70–57.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 53.00 | ±8.1% | 48.70–57.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 52.63 | ±7.3% | 48.77–56.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 52.41 | ±7.8% | 48.34–56.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 52.94 | ±8.3% | 48.55–57.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 52.85 | ±6.7% | 49.33–56.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 53.83 | ±8.8% | 49.08–58.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 54.05 | ±8.2% | 49.60–58.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 53.79 | ±10.3% | 48.25–59.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 53.22 | ±9.6% | 48.13–58.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 52.40 | ±11.0% | 46.65–58.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 53.25 | ±11.6% | 47.07–59.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 54.91 | ±10.9% | 48.93–60.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 54.96 | ±10.9% | 48.98–60.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 56.61 | ±11.5% | 50.09–63.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 56.32 | ±8.1% | 51.78–60.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 56.52 | ±9.0% | 51.44–61.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 56.01 | ±8.9% | 51.03–60.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 56.06 | ±7.7% | 51.75–60.37 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 56.52 → 56.70 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 56.01 → 56.70 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 56.06 → 56.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 55.47 → 56.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 54.61 → 56.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 54.82 → 56.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 54.46 → 56.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +5.0% | 区间外 | 54.01 → 56.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +7.6% | 区间外 | 52.68 → 56.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +6.6% | 区间外 | 53.17 → 56.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 53.01 → 56.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 53.00 → 56.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 52.63 → 56.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 52.41 → 56.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 52.94 → 56.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 52.85 → 56.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 53.83 → 56.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 54.05 → 56.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 53.79 → 56.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 53.22 → 56.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +8.2% | 区间内 | 52.40 → 56.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 53.25 → 56.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 54.91 → 56.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 54.96 → 56.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 56.61 → 56.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 54.80 → 56.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +8.3% | 区间内 | 52.36 → 56.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 52.68 → 56.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 55.47 → 55.53 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.7% | 区间外 | 54.61 → 55.53 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 54.82 → 55.53 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 54.46 → 55.53 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 54.01 → 55.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 52.68 → 55.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +4.4% | 区间外 | 53.17 → 55.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 53.01 → 55.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 53.00 → 55.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 52.63 → 55.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +6.0% | 区间外 | 52.41 → 55.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 52.94 → 55.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 52.85 → 55.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 53.83 → 55.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 54.05 → 55.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 53.79 → 55.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 53.22 → 55.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 52.40 → 55.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 53.25 → 55.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 54.91 → 55.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 54.96 → 55.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 56.61 → 55.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 54.80 → 55.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 52.36 → 55.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 52.68 → 55.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 52.68 → 52.80 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 53.17 → 52.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 53.01 → 52.80 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 53.00 → 52.80 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 52.63 → 52.80 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 52.41 → 52.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 52.94 → 52.80 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.