PYPL histórico de movimento esperado PayPal Holdings, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo82%
|Real| abaixo do esperado82%
Movimento esperado médio±5.1%
Movimento |real| médio2.6%
Erro médio absoluto2.8pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 56.52 | ±0.9% | 56.03–57.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 56.01 | ±2.1% | 54.86–57.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 56.06 | ±2.6% | 54.63–57.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 55.47 | ±3.6% | 53.48–57.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 54.61 | ±3.8% | 52.51–56.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 54.82 | ±4.0% | 52.61–57.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 54.46 | ±4.2% | 52.20–56.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 54.01 | ±4.9% | 51.39–56.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 52.68 | ±4.9% | 50.11–55.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 53.17 | ±5.9% | 50.02–56.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 53.01 | ±6.5% | 49.57–56.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 53.00 | ±6.5% | 49.56–56.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 52.63 | ±6.3% | 49.32–55.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 52.41 | ±6.3% | 49.13–55.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 52.94 | ±7.0% | 49.26–56.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 52.85 | ±7.2% | 49.06–56.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 53.83 | ±7.9% | 49.60–58.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 54.05 | ±8.1% | 49.68–58.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 53.79 | ±8.2% | 49.37–58.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 53.22 | ±8.7% | 48.61–57.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 52.40 | ±9.9% | 47.23–57.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 53.25 | ±9.0% | 48.45–58.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 54.91 | ±9.3% | 49.78–60.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 54.96 | ±9.3% | 49.83–60.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 56.61 | ±8.6% | 51.76–61.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 54.80 | ±8.4% | 50.17–59.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 52.36 | ±9.0% | 47.65–57.07 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 52.68 | ±8.9% | 47.98–57.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 56.52 | ±3.3% | 54.66–58.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 56.01 | ±4.0% | 53.78–58.24 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.1% | dentro | 55.47 → 55.53 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.7% | fora | 54.61 → 55.53 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 54.82 → 55.53 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 54.46 → 55.53 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.8% | dentro | 54.01 → 55.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +5.4% | fora | 52.68 → 55.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +4.4% | fora | 53.17 → 55.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +4.8% | dentro | 53.01 → 55.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +4.8% | dentro | 53.00 → 55.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +5.5% | fora | 52.63 → 55.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +6.0% | fora | 52.41 → 55.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +4.9% | dentro | 52.94 → 55.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.1% | dentro | 52.85 → 55.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +3.2% | dentro | 53.83 → 55.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +2.7% | dentro | 54.05 → 55.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +3.2% | dentro | 53.79 → 55.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.3% | dentro | 53.22 → 55.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +6.0% | dentro | 52.40 → 55.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +4.3% | dentro | 53.25 → 55.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +1.1% | dentro | 54.91 → 55.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 54.96 → 55.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -1.9% | dentro | 56.61 → 55.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 54.80 → 55.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +6.1% | dentro | 52.36 → 55.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +5.4% | dentro | 52.68 → 55.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 52.68 → 52.80 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 53.17 → 52.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 53.01 → 52.80 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 53.00 → 52.80 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 52.63 → 52.80 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 52.41 → 52.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 52.94 → 52.80 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 52.85 → 52.80 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 53.83 → 52.80 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 54.05 → 52.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -1.8% | dentro | 53.79 → 52.80 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 53.22 → 52.80 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 52.40 → 52.80 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | -0.8% | dentro | 53.25 → 52.80 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -3.8% | dentro | 54.91 → 52.80 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -3.9% | dentro | 54.96 → 52.80 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | -6.7% | dentro | 56.61 → 52.80 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -3.6% | dentro | 54.80 → 52.80 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 52.36 → 52.80 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 52.68 → 52.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | +3.8% | fora | 53.01 → 55.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | +3.8% | fora | 53.00 → 55.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | +4.6% | fora | 52.63 → 55.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | +5.0% | fora | 52.41 → 55.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | +4.0% | fora | 52.94 → 55.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +4.1% | fora | 52.85 → 55.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | +2.2% | dentro | 53.83 → 55.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 54.05 → 55.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | +2.3% | dentro | 53.79 → 55.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | +3.4% | dentro | 53.22 → 55.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.9% | +5.0% | dentro | 52.40 → 55.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | +3.4% | dentro | 53.25 → 55.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 54.91 → 55.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 54.96 → 55.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -2.8% | dentro | 56.61 → 55.04 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.