PSX riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan Phillips 66
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan93
Tutup dalam rentang82%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi82%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±5.9%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|3.6%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut2.8pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 293.17 | ±0.6% | 291.44–294.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 297.29 | ±2.7% | 289.17–305.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 292.73 | ±3.3% | 283.18–302.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 278.18 | ±3.9% | 267.33–289.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 281.60 | ±4.6% | 268.60–294.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 271.26 | ±4.8% | 258.21–284.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 269.79 | ±5.3% | 255.39–284.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 269.72 | ±5.9% | 253.82–285.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 264.58 | ±6.1% | 248.48–280.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 264.23 | ±6.6% | 246.68–281.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 262.49 | ±8.7% | 239.64–285.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 262.49 | ±8.7% | 239.64–285.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 265.24 | ±8.9% | 241.59–288.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 273.92 | ±9.0% | 249.17–298.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 273.13 | ±9.2% | 247.88–298.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 266.39 | ±10.4% | 238.64–294.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 265.69 | ±10.2% | 238.63–292.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 255.67 | ±9.7% | 230.92–280.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 258.57 | ±9.9% | 232.87–284.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 261.79 | ±9.9% | 235.89–287.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 261.26 | ±10.4% | 234.16–288.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 260.00 | ±10.5% | 232.70–287.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 256.19 | ±10.7% | 228.89–283.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 256.19 | ±10.7% | 228.89–283.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 256.18 | ±10.8% | 228.53–283.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 256.30 | ±10.9% | 228.25–284.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 249.58 | ±10.6% | 223.03–276.13 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 245.31 | ±10.7% | 218.97–271.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 293.17 | ±4.9% | 278.67–307.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 297.29 | ±5.6% | 280.69–313.89 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | di dalam | 278.18 → 278.18 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -1.2% | di dalam | 281.60 → 278.18 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +2.5% | di dalam | 271.26 → 278.18 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +3.1% | di dalam | 269.79 → 278.18 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +3.1% | di dalam | 269.72 → 278.18 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +5.1% | di luar | 264.58 → 278.18 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +5.3% | di luar | 264.23 → 278.18 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +6.0% | di dalam | 262.49 → 278.18 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +6.0% | di dalam | 262.49 → 278.18 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +4.9% | di dalam | 265.24 → 278.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.6% | di dalam | 273.92 → 278.18 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +1.8% | di dalam | 273.13 → 278.18 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +4.4% | di dalam | 266.39 → 278.18 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +4.7% | di dalam | 265.69 → 278.18 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +8.8% | di luar | 255.67 → 278.18 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +7.6% | di dalam | 258.57 → 278.18 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +6.3% | di dalam | 261.79 → 278.18 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +6.5% | di dalam | 261.26 → 278.18 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +7.0% | di dalam | 260.00 → 278.18 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +8.6% | di dalam | 256.19 → 278.18 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +8.6% | di dalam | 256.19 → 278.18 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +8.6% | di dalam | 256.18 → 278.18 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +8.5% | di dalam | 256.30 → 278.18 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +11.5% | di luar | 249.58 → 278.18 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +13.4% | di luar | 245.31 → 278.18 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | di dalam | 264.58 → 264.58 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +0.1% | di dalam | 264.23 → 264.58 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +0.8% | di dalam | 262.49 → 264.58 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +0.8% | di dalam | 262.49 → 264.58 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -0.2% | di dalam | 265.24 → 264.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -3.4% | di dalam | 273.92 → 264.58 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -3.1% | di dalam | 273.13 → 264.58 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -0.7% | di dalam | 266.39 → 264.58 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -0.4% | di dalam | 265.69 → 264.58 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | +3.5% | di dalam | 255.67 → 264.58 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +2.3% | di dalam | 258.57 → 264.58 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +1.1% | di dalam | 261.79 → 264.58 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +1.3% | di dalam | 261.26 → 264.58 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | +1.8% | di dalam | 260.00 → 264.58 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +3.3% | di dalam | 256.19 → 264.58 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +3.3% | di dalam | 256.19 → 264.58 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +3.3% | di dalam | 256.18 → 264.58 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | +3.2% | di dalam | 256.30 → 264.58 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | +6.0% | di dalam | 249.58 → 264.58 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +7.9% | di dalam | 245.31 → 264.58 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -2.6% | di dalam | 262.49 → 255.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -2.6% | di dalam | 262.49 → 255.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -3.6% | di dalam | 265.24 → 255.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -6.6% | di luar | 273.92 → 255.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -6.4% | di luar | 273.13 → 255.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -4.0% | di dalam | 266.39 → 255.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -3.7% | di dalam | 265.69 → 255.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | +0.0% | di dalam | 255.67 → 255.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -1.1% | di dalam | 258.57 → 255.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -2.3% | di dalam | 261.79 → 255.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -2.1% | di dalam | 261.26 → 255.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | -1.6% | di dalam | 260.00 → 255.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -0.2% | di dalam | 256.19 → 255.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -0.2% | di dalam | 256.19 → 255.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -0.2% | di dalam | 256.18 → 255.75 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.