PRU historial de movimiento esperado Prudential Financial, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango98%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado98%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.1%
Error medio abs.2.4pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 113.67 | ±6.1% | 106.69–120.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 115.91 | ±7.2% | 107.53–124.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 112.92 | ±6.8% | 105.20–120.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 113.41 | ±6.9% | 105.56–121.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 113.06 | ±7.7% | 104.36–121.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 113.19 | ±7.6% | 104.59–121.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 112.44 | ±8.8% | 102.54–122.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 113.88 | ±7.3% | 105.58–122.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 113.48 | ±7.8% | 104.63–122.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 112.60 | ±8.2% | 103.35–121.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 113.13 | ±8.4% | 103.63–122.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 118.53 | ±7.8% | 109.23–127.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 118.53 | ±7.8% | 109.23–127.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 118.40 | ±8.8% | 107.95–128.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 117.93 | ±9.2% | 107.03–128.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 117.04 | ±10.0% | 105.34–128.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 119.24 | ±9.6% | 107.84–130.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 119.24 | ±9.6% | 107.84–130.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 119.24 | ±9.6% | 107.84–130.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 117.48 | ±10.1% | 105.58–129.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 117.59 | ±9.5% | 106.39–128.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 119.38 | ±9.3% | 108.28–130.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 122.02 | ±10.2% | 109.57–134.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 122.02 | ±10.2% | 109.57–134.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 123.20 | ±9.5% | 111.55–134.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 119.84 | ±9.5% | 108.44–131.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 117.14 | ±10.1% | 105.29–128.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 116.83 | ±10.2% | 104.93–128.73 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 119.79 | ±9.5% | 108.44–131.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 113.67 | ±8.5% | 104.02–123.32 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 115.91 → 115.91 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +2.6% | dentro | 112.92 → 115.91 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.2% | dentro | 113.41 → 115.91 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +2.5% | dentro | 113.06 → 115.91 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +2.4% | dentro | 113.19 → 115.91 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +3.1% | dentro | 112.44 → 115.91 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +1.8% | dentro | 113.88 → 115.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +2.1% | dentro | 113.48 → 115.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +2.9% | dentro | 112.60 → 115.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +2.5% | dentro | 113.13 → 115.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 118.53 → 115.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 118.53 → 115.91 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 118.40 → 115.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -1.7% | dentro | 117.93 → 115.91 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 117.04 → 115.91 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.8% | dentro | 119.24 → 115.91 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.8% | dentro | 119.24 → 115.91 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.8% | dentro | 119.24 → 115.91 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -1.3% | dentro | 117.48 → 115.91 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.4% | dentro | 117.59 → 115.91 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 119.38 → 115.91 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -5.0% | dentro | 122.02 → 115.91 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -5.0% | dentro | 122.02 → 115.91 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -5.9% | dentro | 123.20 → 115.91 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -3.3% | dentro | 119.84 → 115.91 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -1.1% | dentro | 117.14 → 115.91 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -0.8% | dentro | 116.83 → 115.91 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -3.2% | dentro | 119.79 → 115.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 117.93 → 118.40 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 117.04 → 118.40 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 119.24 → 118.40 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 119.24 → 118.40 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 119.24 → 118.40 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | +0.8% | dentro | 117.48 → 118.40 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 117.59 → 118.40 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -0.8% | dentro | 119.38 → 118.40 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -3.0% | dentro | 122.02 → 118.40 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -3.0% | dentro | 122.02 → 118.40 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -3.9% | fuera | 123.20 → 118.40 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 119.84 → 118.40 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 117.14 → 118.40 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 116.83 → 118.40 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -1.2% | dentro | 119.79 → 118.40 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.