PM 预期波动历史 Philip Morris International Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内63%
|实际值| 低于预期值63%
平均预期波动幅度±4.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.9%
平均绝对误差2.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 201.10 | ±4.4% | 192.25–209.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 204.89 | ±5.0% | 194.69–215.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 205.58 | ±5.2% | 194.83–216.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 199.47 | ±5.1% | 189.22–209.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 200.22 | ±5.5% | 189.27–211.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 201.99 | ±6.2% | 189.39–214.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 192.45 | ±6.2% | 180.50–204.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 190.03 | ±6.1% | 178.48–201.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 189.30 | ±6.3% | 177.35–201.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 187.46 | ±6.5% | 175.21–199.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 188.09 | ±6.6% | 175.59–200.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 187.48 | ±8.0% | 172.43–202.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 187.48 | ±8.0% | 172.43–202.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 187.78 | ±7.9% | 173.03–202.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 189.33 | ±7.8% | 174.48–204.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 189.23 | ±8.0% | 174.08–204.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 193.95 | ±8.3% | 177.85–210.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 194.16 | ±8.3% | 177.96–210.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 193.45 | ±8.4% | 177.15–209.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 192.72 | ±8.7% | 175.97–209.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 189.59 | ±8.6% | 173.28–205.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 186.01 | ±8.8% | 169.66–202.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 186.21 | ±8.9% | 169.56–202.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 182.53 | ±9.2% | 165.78–199.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 186.00 | ±9.4% | 168.50–203.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 201.10 | ±5.3% | 190.45–211.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 204.89 | ±5.9% | 192.74–217.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 205.58 | ±5.7% | 193.78–217.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 199.47 | ±6.3% | 186.97–211.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 200.22 | ±6.1% | 187.97–212.47 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 204.89 → 205.20 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 205.58 → 205.20 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +2.9% | 区间外 | 199.47 → 205.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 200.22 → 205.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 201.99 → 205.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +6.6% | 区间外 | 192.45 → 205.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 190.03 → 205.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 189.30 → 205.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 187.46 → 205.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +9.1% | 区间外 | 188.09 → 205.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 187.48 → 205.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 187.48 → 205.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 187.78 → 205.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 189.33 → 205.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 189.23 → 205.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +5.8% | 区间内 | 193.95 → 205.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 194.16 → 205.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 193.45 → 205.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 192.72 → 205.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 189.59 → 205.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 186.01 → 205.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +10.2% | 区间外 | 186.21 → 205.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +12.4% | 区间外 | 182.53 → 205.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 186.00 → 205.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +9.2% | 区间外 | 187.95 → 205.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +9.9% | 区间外 | 186.67 → 205.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 187.74 → 205.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 188.23 → 205.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 200.22 → 201.19 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 201.99 → 201.19 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 192.45 → 201.19 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 190.03 → 201.19 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 189.30 → 201.19 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 187.46 → 201.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 188.09 → 201.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 187.48 → 201.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 187.48 → 201.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 187.78 → 201.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 189.33 → 201.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 189.23 → 201.19 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 193.95 → 201.19 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 194.16 → 201.19 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 193.45 → 201.19 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 192.72 → 201.19 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 189.59 → 201.19 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 186.01 → 201.19 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 186.21 → 201.19 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +10.2% | 区间外 | 182.53 → 201.19 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 186.00 → 201.19 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +7.0% | 区间内 | 187.95 → 201.19 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 186.67 → 201.19 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +7.2% | 区间外 | 187.74 → 201.19 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +6.9% | 区间内 | 188.23 → 201.19 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 187.46 → 187.46 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 188.09 → 187.46 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 187.48 → 187.46 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 187.48 → 187.46 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 187.78 → 187.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 189.33 → 187.46 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 189.23 → 187.46 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.