PLTR 预期波动历史 Palantir Technologies Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内55%
|实际值| 低于预期值55%
平均预期波动幅度±7.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.7%
平均绝对误差4.1pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 194.39 | ±4.4% | 185.84–202.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 185.07 | ±5.6% | 174.77–195.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 198.89 | ±5.8% | 187.39–210.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 208.37 | ±5.7% | 196.54–220.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 208.00 | ±6.5% | 194.42–221.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 198.50 | ±6.8% | 184.93–212.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 193.90 | ±6.9% | 180.55–207.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 191.83 | ±7.2% | 178.08–205.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 189.35 | ±7.4% | 175.32–203.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 188.86 | ±7.8% | 174.21–203.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 189.70 | ±8.4% | 173.70–205.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 185.13 | ±10.7% | 165.25–205.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 185.03 | ±10.7% | 165.15–204.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 182.95 | ±11.1% | 162.60–203.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 177.82 | ±11.5% | 157.37–198.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 175.76 | ±11.9% | 154.88–196.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 173.80 | ±12.5% | 152.03–195.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 172.38 | ±12.8% | 150.23–194.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 173.10 | ±12.8% | 150.88–195.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 167.40 | ±12.6% | 146.38–188.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 166.33 | ±13.4% | 144.10–188.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 169.70 | ±13.4% | 147.03–192.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 170.65 | ±13.6% | 147.53–193.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 174.40 | ±13.6% | 150.60–198.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 174.33 | ±13.7% | 150.53–198.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 182.46 | ±14.6% | 155.91–209.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 194.39 | ±6.8% | 181.14–207.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 185.07 | ±7.9% | 170.52–199.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 198.89 | ±7.7% | 183.64–214.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 208.37 | ±7.5% | 192.84–223.90 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 185.07 → 186.03 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -6.5% | 区间外 | 198.89 → 186.03 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 208.37 → 186.03 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 208.00 → 186.03 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 198.50 → 186.03 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 193.90 → 186.03 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 191.83 → 186.03 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 189.35 → 186.03 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 188.86 → 186.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 189.70 → 186.03 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 185.13 → 186.03 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 185.03 → 186.03 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 182.95 → 186.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 177.82 → 186.03 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +5.8% | 区间内 | 175.76 → 186.03 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | +7.0% | 区间内 | 173.80 → 186.03 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 172.38 → 186.03 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | +7.5% | 区间内 | 173.10 → 186.03 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | +11.1% | 区间内 | 167.40 → 186.03 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +11.8% | 区间内 | 166.33 → 186.03 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +9.6% | 区间内 | 169.70 → 186.03 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +9.0% | 区间内 | 170.65 → 186.03 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 174.40 → 186.03 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 174.33 → 186.03 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 182.46 → 186.03 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | +9.4% | 区间内 | 170.00 → 186.03 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 180.00 → 186.03 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 186.02 → 186.03 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 208.00 → 209.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 198.50 → 209.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 193.90 → 209.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 191.83 → 209.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +10.4% | 区间外 | 189.35 → 209.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +10.7% | 区间外 | 188.86 → 209.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +10.2% | 区间外 | 189.70 → 209.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +12.9% | 区间外 | 185.13 → 209.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +13.0% | 区间外 | 185.03 → 209.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +14.3% | 区间外 | 182.95 → 209.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +17.6% | 区间外 | 177.82 → 209.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +18.9% | 区间外 | 175.76 → 209.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +20.3% | 区间外 | 173.80 → 209.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +21.3% | 区间外 | 172.38 → 209.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +20.8% | 区间外 | 173.10 → 209.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +24.9% | 区间外 | 167.40 → 209.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +25.7% | 区间外 | 166.33 → 209.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +23.2% | 区间外 | 169.70 → 209.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +22.5% | 区间外 | 170.65 → 209.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +19.9% | 区间外 | 174.40 → 209.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +19.9% | 区间外 | 174.33 → 209.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +14.6% | 区间外 | 182.46 → 209.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +23.0% | 区间外 | 170.00 → 209.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 180.00 → 209.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +12.4% | 区间外 | 186.02 → 209.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 188.86 → 188.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 189.70 → 188.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 185.13 → 188.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 185.03 → 188.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 182.95 → 188.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 177.82 → 188.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 175.76 → 188.75 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.