PH historial de movimiento esperado Parker-Hannifin Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango95%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado95%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio1.6%
Error medio abs.3.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 966.26 | ±7.9% | 889.56–1,042.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 963.34 | ±8.2% | 884.04–1,042.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 959.13 | ±8.8% | 874.98–1,043.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 957.90 | ±8.6% | 875.50–1,040.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 962.47 | ±8.8% | 878.12–1,046.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 946.96 | ±8.9% | 862.66–1,031.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 952.79 | ±9.0% | 867.04–1,038.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 986.67 | ±9.1% | 896.87–1,076.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 979.15 | ±9.1% | 890.15–1,068.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 972.55 | ±9.2% | 882.60–1,062.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 965.39 | ±9.9% | 869.84–1,060.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 964.96 | ±9.8% | 870.61–1,059.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 964.96 | ±9.8% | 870.61–1,059.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 952.00 | ±9.8% | 858.35–1,045.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 925.29 | ±10.0% | 832.44–1,018.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 934.96 | ±9.9% | 841.96–1,027.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 925.00 | ±10.4% | 829.20–1,020.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 928.83 | ±10.4% | 832.03–1,025.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 941.00 | ±10.6% | 841.55–1,040.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 934.34 | ±10.7% | 833.99–1,034.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 932.40 | ±10.7% | 832.20–1,032.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 958.00 | ±11.3% | 849.45–1,066.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 962.59 | ±11.2% | 854.79–1,070.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 962.59 | ±11.2% | 854.79–1,070.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 964.52 | ±11.1% | 857.87–1,071.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 949.38 | ±11.2% | 842.73–1,056.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 948.39 | ±11.2% | 842.29–1,054.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 968.00 | ±11.4% | 857.20–1,078.80 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 995.02 | ±11.4% | 881.72–1,108.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 966.26 | ±9.9% | 870.96–1,061.56 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 963.34 → 963.34 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 959.13 → 963.34 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +0.6% | dentro | 957.90 → 963.34 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 962.47 → 963.34 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +1.7% | dentro | 946.96 → 963.34 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +1.1% | dentro | 952.79 → 963.34 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -2.4% | dentro | 986.67 → 963.34 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -1.6% | dentro | 979.15 → 963.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -0.9% | dentro | 972.55 → 963.34 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 965.39 → 963.34 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 964.96 → 963.34 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 964.96 → 963.34 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +1.2% | dentro | 952.00 → 963.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +4.1% | dentro | 925.29 → 963.34 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +3.0% | dentro | 934.96 → 963.34 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +4.1% | dentro | 925.00 → 963.34 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +3.7% | dentro | 928.83 → 963.34 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 941.00 → 963.34 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +3.1% | dentro | 934.34 → 963.34 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +3.3% | dentro | 932.40 → 963.34 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +0.6% | dentro | 958.00 → 963.34 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 962.59 → 963.34 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 962.59 → 963.34 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 964.52 → 963.34 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 949.38 → 963.34 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +1.6% | dentro | 948.39 → 963.34 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -0.5% | dentro | 968.00 → 963.34 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -3.2% | dentro | 995.02 → 963.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.3% | +2.0% | fuera | 925.29 → 943.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 934.96 → 943.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | +2.0% | dentro | 925.00 → 943.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 928.83 → 943.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | +0.3% | dentro | 941.00 → 943.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 934.34 → 943.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 932.40 → 943.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -1.5% | dentro | 958.00 → 943.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -2.0% | dentro | 962.59 → 943.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -2.0% | dentro | 962.59 → 943.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.1% | -2.2% | dentro | 964.52 → 943.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 949.38 → 943.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 948.39 → 943.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.7% | -2.5% | dentro | 968.00 → 943.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.9% | -5.2% | fuera | 995.02 → 943.54 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.