PEP histórico de movimento esperado PepsiCo, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo38%
|Real| abaixo do esperado38%
Movimento esperado médio±3.6%
Movimento |real| médio4.7%
Erro médio absoluto2.3pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 133.58 | ±2.1% | 130.78–136.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 131.08 | ±2.4% | 127.92–134.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 129.27 | ±2.6% | 125.88–132.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 127.20 | ±2.7% | 123.73–130.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 126.05 | ±2.9% | 122.33–129.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 128.23 | ±3.6% | 123.58–132.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 123.75 | ±4.3% | 118.41–129.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 125.71 | ±4.2% | 120.40–131.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 125.80 | ±5.7% | 118.57–133.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 125.80 | ±5.6% | 118.72–132.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 125.84 | ±4.9% | 119.72–131.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 131.35 | ±5.7% | 123.85–138.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 131.30 | ±5.7% | 123.80–138.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 129.75 | ±5.4% | 122.77–136.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 129.93 | ±5.5% | 122.80–137.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 133.72 | ±5.5% | 126.38–141.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 134.47 | ±5.9% | 126.50–142.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 135.74 | ±6.2% | 127.34–144.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 136.26 | ±6.2% | 127.79–144.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 136.51 | ±6.4% | 127.81–145.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 137.04 | ±6.7% | 127.92–146.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 136.86 | ±6.5% | 127.89–145.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 138.62 | ±6.3% | 129.94–147.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 137.75 | ±6.6% | 128.67–146.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 137.87 | ±7.1% | 128.09–147.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 140.19 | ±6.8% | 130.59–149.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 133.58 | ±3.4% | 129.03–138.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 131.08 | ±3.7% | 126.23–135.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 129.27 | ±3.7% | 124.46–134.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 127.20 | ±3.5% | 122.81–131.59 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 131.08 → 131.49 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | +1.7% | fora | 129.27 → 131.49 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +3.4% | fora | 127.20 → 131.49 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +4.3% | fora | 126.05 → 131.49 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.5% | dentro | 128.23 → 131.49 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +6.3% | fora | 123.75 → 131.49 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +4.6% | fora | 125.71 → 131.49 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +4.5% | dentro | 125.80 → 131.49 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +4.5% | fora | 125.80 → 131.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +4.5% | dentro | 125.84 → 131.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 131.35 → 131.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 131.30 → 131.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 129.75 → 131.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +1.2% | dentro | 129.93 → 131.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -1.7% | dentro | 133.72 → 131.49 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 134.47 → 131.49 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -3.1% | dentro | 135.74 → 131.49 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -3.5% | dentro | 136.26 → 131.49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -3.7% | dentro | 136.51 → 131.49 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -4.0% | dentro | 137.04 → 131.49 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -3.9% | dentro | 136.86 → 131.49 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -5.1% | dentro | 138.62 → 131.49 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -4.5% | dentro | 137.75 → 131.49 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -4.6% | dentro | 137.87 → 131.49 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -6.2% | dentro | 140.19 → 131.49 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -6.4% | fora | 140.52 → 131.49 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -5.8% | dentro | 139.56 → 131.49 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -6.4% | dentro | 140.48 → 131.49 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 126.05 → 125.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -1.8% | fora | 128.23 → 125.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.8% | dentro | 123.75 → 125.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 125.71 → 125.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +0.1% | dentro | 125.80 → 125.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 125.80 → 125.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 125.84 → 125.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -4.1% | dentro | 131.35 → 125.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -4.1% | dentro | 131.30 → 125.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.9% | dentro | 129.75 → 125.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 129.93 → 125.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -5.8% | fora | 133.72 → 125.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -6.3% | fora | 134.47 → 125.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -7.2% | fora | 135.74 → 125.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -7.6% | fora | 136.26 → 125.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -7.7% | fora | 136.51 → 125.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -8.1% | fora | 137.04 → 125.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -8.0% | fora | 136.86 → 125.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -9.1% | fora | 138.62 → 125.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -8.6% | fora | 137.75 → 125.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -8.6% | fora | 137.87 → 125.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -10.1% | fora | 140.19 → 125.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -10.4% | fora | 140.52 → 125.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -9.7% | fora | 139.56 → 125.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -10.3% | fora | 140.48 → 125.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 125.80 → 125.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 125.84 → 125.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -4.2% | fora | 131.35 → 125.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -4.1% | fora | 131.30 → 125.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -3.0% | fora | 129.75 → 125.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -3.1% | fora | 129.93 → 125.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -5.9% | fora | 133.72 → 125.89 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.