PENN historial de movimiento esperado PENN Entertainment, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango58%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado58%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.3%
Error medio abs.3.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 15.01 | ±13.3% | 13.01–17.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 15.21 | ±13.1% | 13.21–17.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 14.82 | ±15.3% | 12.55–17.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 15.31 | ±12.6% | 13.39–17.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 15.75 | ±15.9% | 13.25–18.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 15.47 | ±15.2% | 13.12–17.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 15.53 | ±15.0% | 13.21–17.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 15.84 | ±14.8% | 13.49–18.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 15.06 | ±13.9% | 12.96–17.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 14.84 | ±14.8% | 12.64–17.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 14.68 | ±17.2% | 12.15–17.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 16.16 | ±16.2% | 13.54–18.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 16.07 | ±16.5% | 13.43–18.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 16.14 | ±15.5% | 13.64–18.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 17.05 | ±15.2% | 14.45–19.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 17.45 | ±15.9% | 14.68–20.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 15.01 | ±16.0% | 12.61–17.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 15.21 | ±19.7% | 12.21–18.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Jan 15 | 88 | 15.01 | ±18.7% | 12.21–17.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Jan 15 | 91 | 15.21 | ±19.1% | 12.31–18.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Jan 15 | 93 | 14.82 | ±21.2% | 11.68–17.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Jan 15 | 94 | 15.31 | ±20.4% | 12.19–18.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Jan 15 | 98 | 15.75 | ±20.8% | 12.47–19.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Jan 15 | 99 | 15.47 | ±21.0% | 12.22–18.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Jan 15 | 100 | 15.53 | ±21.1% | 12.26–18.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Jan 15 | 101 | 15.84 | ±21.5% | 12.44–19.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Jan 15 | 102 | 15.06 | ±20.9% | 11.91–18.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Jan 15 | 105 | 14.84 | ±21.4% | 11.66–18.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Jan 15 | 106 | 14.68 | ±19.9% | 11.76–17.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Jan 15 | 114 | 16.16 | ±20.3% | 12.88–19.43 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -1.8% | dentro | 15.21 → 14.94 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 14.82 → 14.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 15.31 → 14.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -5.1% | dentro | 15.75 → 14.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -3.5% | dentro | 15.47 → 14.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -3.8% | dentro | 15.53 → 14.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -5.7% | dentro | 15.84 → 14.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -0.8% | dentro | 15.06 → 14.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +0.7% | dentro | 14.84 → 14.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +1.8% | dentro | 14.68 → 14.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -7.5% | dentro | 16.16 → 14.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -7.1% | dentro | 16.07 → 14.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -7.5% | dentro | 16.14 → 14.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -12.4% | fuera | 17.05 → 14.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -14.4% | fuera | 17.45 → 14.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -14.7% | fuera | 17.52 → 14.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -16.8% | fuera | 17.96 → 14.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -15.4% | fuera | 17.66 → 14.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -13.8% | fuera | 17.34 → 14.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -13.0% | fuera | 17.17 → 14.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -13.0% | fuera | 17.17 → 14.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -13.4% | fuera | 17.25 → 14.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -12.5% | fuera | 17.07 → 14.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -13.4% | fuera | 17.25 → 14.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -12.9% | fuera | 17.16 → 14.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -11.2% | dentro | 16.82 → 14.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -8.3% | dentro | 16.30 → 14.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -12.6% | fuera | 17.09 → 14.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.5% | -3.5% | fuera | 17.05 → 16.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | -5.8% | fuera | 17.45 → 16.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.6% | -6.1% | fuera | 17.52 → 16.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -8.4% | fuera | 17.96 → 16.45 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.5% | -6.8% | fuera | 17.66 → 16.45 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.9% | -5.1% | dentro | 17.34 → 16.45 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.6% | -4.2% | dentro | 17.17 → 16.45 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.6% | -4.2% | dentro | 17.17 → 16.45 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.5% | -4.6% | dentro | 17.25 → 16.45 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -3.6% | dentro | 17.07 → 16.45 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -4.6% | dentro | 17.25 → 16.45 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.0% | -4.1% | dentro | 17.16 → 16.45 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | dentro | 16.82 → 16.45 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | +0.9% | dentro | 16.30 → 16.45 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.0% | -3.7% | dentro | 17.09 → 16.45 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.