PDD 预期波动历史 PDD Holdings Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内71%
|实际值| 低于预期值71%
平均预期波动幅度±4.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.2%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 81.39 | ±2.9% | 79.01–83.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 80.97 | ±3.4% | 78.22–83.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 81.26 | ±3.9% | 78.06–84.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 82.09 | ±4.3% | 78.55–85.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 81.30 | ±4.6% | 77.55–85.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 78.10 | ±4.4% | 74.62–81.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 78.43 | ±5.5% | 74.14–82.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 78.47 | ±4.8% | 74.72–82.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 77.85 | ±5.8% | 73.33–82.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 75.38 | ±6.2% | 70.69–80.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 76.52 | ±4.5% | 73.07–79.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 80.33 | ±7.9% | 73.97–86.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 80.33 | ±7.9% | 73.97–86.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 79.46 | ±6.7% | 74.15–84.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 79.50 | ±7.7% | 73.38–85.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 77.90 | ±6.5% | 72.83–82.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 78.76 | ±8.6% | 71.98–85.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 78.08 | ±8.5% | 71.42–84.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 79.72 | ±8.4% | 73.03–86.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 77.98 | ±8.5% | 71.35–84.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 78.63 | ±8.6% | 71.86–85.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 78.73 | ±8.6% | 71.95–85.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 79.91 | ±8.8% | 72.86–86.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 82.35 | ±9.6% | 74.46–90.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 81.75 | ±8.9% | 74.45–89.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 81.65 | ±9.0% | 74.33–88.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 81.39 | ±4.1% | 78.02–84.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 80.97 | ±4.7% | 77.19–84.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 81.26 | ±5.2% | 77.04–85.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 82.09 | ±5.3% | 77.72–86.47 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 80.97 → 80.97 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 81.26 → 80.97 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 82.09 → 80.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 81.30 → 80.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 78.10 → 80.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 78.43 → 80.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 78.47 → 80.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +4.0% | 区间外 | 77.85 → 80.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +7.4% | 区间外 | 75.38 → 80.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +5.8% | 区间外 | 76.52 → 80.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 80.33 → 80.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 80.33 → 80.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 79.46 → 80.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 79.50 → 80.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +3.9% | 区间内 | 77.90 → 80.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 78.76 → 80.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 78.08 → 80.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 79.72 → 80.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 77.98 → 80.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 78.63 → 80.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 78.73 → 80.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 79.91 → 80.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 82.35 → 80.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 81.75 → 80.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 81.65 → 80.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 82.27 → 80.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 83.62 → 80.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 83.96 → 80.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 81.30 → 81.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +4.2% | 区间外 | 78.10 → 81.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.7% | 区间外 | 78.43 → 81.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.7% | 区间外 | 78.47 → 81.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 77.85 → 81.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +7.9% | 区间外 | 75.38 → 81.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 76.52 → 81.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 80.33 → 81.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 80.33 → 81.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 79.46 → 81.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 79.50 → 81.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 77.90 → 81.35 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 78.76 → 81.35 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 78.08 → 81.35 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 79.72 → 81.35 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 77.98 → 81.35 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 78.63 → 81.35 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 78.73 → 81.35 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 79.91 → 81.35 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 82.35 → 81.35 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 81.75 → 81.35 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 81.65 → 81.35 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 82.27 → 81.35 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 83.62 → 81.35 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 83.96 → 81.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 75.38 → 75.38 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | -1.5% | 区间外 | 76.52 → 75.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 80.33 → 75.38 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 80.33 → 75.38 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 79.46 → 75.38 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -5.2% | 区间外 | 79.50 → 75.38 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 77.90 → 75.38 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.