PDD historial de movimiento esperado PDD Holdings Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango66%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado66%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.5%
Error medio abs.2.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 80.97 | ±0.4% | 80.67–81.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 81.26 | ±2.2% | 79.49–83.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 82.09 | ±2.5% | 80.03–84.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 81.30 | ±3.1% | 78.77–83.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 78.10 | ±3.8% | 75.16–81.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 78.43 | ±3.8% | 75.43–81.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 78.47 | ±3.9% | 75.39–81.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 77.85 | ±3.9% | 74.81–80.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 75.38 | ±4.2% | 72.23–78.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 76.52 | ±4.7% | 72.94–80.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 80.33 | ±6.1% | 75.41–85.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 80.33 | ±6.1% | 75.41–85.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 79.46 | ±6.3% | 74.42–84.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 79.50 | ±6.8% | 74.08–84.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 77.90 | ±7.0% | 72.48–83.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 78.76 | ±7.0% | 73.22–84.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 78.08 | ±7.5% | 72.25–83.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 79.72 | ±7.7% | 73.56–85.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 77.98 | ±7.8% | 71.90–84.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 78.63 | ±8.2% | 72.22–85.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 78.73 | ±8.1% | 72.32–85.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 79.91 | ±8.1% | 73.46–86.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 82.35 | ±7.3% | 76.33–88.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 81.75 | ±8.2% | 75.03–88.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 81.65 | ±8.4% | 74.83–88.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 82.27 | ±8.7% | 75.11–89.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 83.62 | ±8.3% | 76.67–90.58 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 83.96 | ±9.3% | 76.19–91.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 80.97 | ±3.4% | 78.22–83.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 81.26 | ±3.9% | 78.06–84.46 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 81.30 → 81.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +4.2% | fuera | 78.10 → 81.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.7% | fuera | 78.43 → 81.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.7% | fuera | 78.47 → 81.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.5% | fuera | 77.85 → 81.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +7.9% | fuera | 75.38 → 81.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +6.3% | fuera | 76.52 → 81.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +1.3% | dentro | 80.33 → 81.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +1.3% | dentro | 80.33 → 81.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +2.4% | dentro | 79.46 → 81.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +2.3% | dentro | 79.50 → 81.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +4.4% | dentro | 77.90 → 81.35 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +3.3% | dentro | 78.76 → 81.35 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +4.2% | dentro | 78.08 → 81.35 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 79.72 → 81.35 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 77.98 → 81.35 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.5% | dentro | 78.63 → 81.35 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +3.3% | dentro | 78.73 → 81.35 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.8% | dentro | 79.91 → 81.35 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 82.35 → 81.35 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -0.5% | dentro | 81.75 → 81.35 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -0.4% | dentro | 81.65 → 81.35 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 82.27 → 81.35 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -2.7% | dentro | 83.62 → 81.35 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -3.1% | dentro | 83.96 → 81.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 75.38 → 75.38 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | -1.5% | fuera | 76.52 → 75.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.2% | fuera | 80.33 → 75.38 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.2% | fuera | 80.33 → 75.38 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -5.1% | fuera | 79.46 → 75.38 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -5.2% | fuera | 79.50 → 75.38 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -3.2% | dentro | 77.90 → 75.38 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 78.76 → 75.38 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -3.5% | dentro | 78.08 → 75.38 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -5.4% | dentro | 79.72 → 75.38 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -3.3% | dentro | 77.98 → 75.38 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -4.1% | dentro | 78.63 → 75.38 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -4.3% | dentro | 78.73 → 75.38 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -5.7% | dentro | 79.91 → 75.38 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -8.5% | fuera | 82.35 → 75.38 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -7.8% | fuera | 81.75 → 75.38 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -7.7% | fuera | 81.65 → 75.38 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -8.4% | fuera | 82.27 → 75.38 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -9.9% | fuera | 83.62 → 75.38 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -10.2% | fuera | 83.96 → 75.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | -3.4% | fuera | 80.33 → 77.57 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | -3.4% | fuera | 80.33 → 77.57 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -2.4% | dentro | 79.46 → 77.57 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 79.50 → 77.57 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 77.90 → 77.57 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -1.5% | dentro | 78.76 → 77.57 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -0.7% | dentro | 78.08 → 77.57 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 79.72 → 77.57 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -0.5% | dentro | 77.98 → 77.57 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -1.3% | dentro | 78.63 → 77.57 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -1.5% | dentro | 78.73 → 77.57 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -2.9% | dentro | 79.91 → 77.57 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -5.8% | fuera | 82.35 → 77.57 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -5.1% | dentro | 81.75 → 77.57 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -5.0% | dentro | 81.65 → 77.57 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.