PANW 预期波动历史 Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内45%
|实际值| 低于预期值45%
平均预期波动幅度±7.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度9.2%
平均绝对误差4.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 342.89 | ±0.4% | 341.49–344.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 375.50 | ±3.5% | 362.20–388.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 397.00 | ±3.6% | 382.82–411.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 418.29 | ±4.9% | 397.96–438.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 398.50 | ±5.8% | 375.40–421.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 406.51 | ±5.8% | 382.79–430.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 419.70 | ±6.4% | 393.00–446.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 406.96 | ±6.5% | 380.31–433.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 402.30 | ±7.1% | 373.80–430.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 396.30 | ±8.2% | 363.65–428.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 375.00 | ±10.6% | 335.35–414.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 374.21 | ±10.6% | 334.56–413.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 370.83 | ±10.5% | 331.81–409.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 365.25 | ±10.7% | 326.08–404.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 374.05 | ±11.4% | 331.33–416.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 376.15 | ±11.9% | 331.38–420.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 375.55 | ±12.3% | 329.50–421.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 373.60 | ±12.3% | 327.52–419.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 329.64 | ±11.4% | 291.94–367.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 339.21 | ±12.2% | 297.66–380.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 335.00 | ±11.9% | 295.20–374.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 335.58 | ±12.7% | 293.00–378.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 333.35 | ±12.7% | 291.07–375.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 335.69 | ±12.3% | 294.44–376.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 331.00 | ±12.8% | 288.52–373.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 329.70 | ±12.7% | 287.75–371.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 357.96 | ±16.4% | 299.29–416.63 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 381.92 | ±16.4% | 319.47–444.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 342.89 | ±6.4% | 320.89–364.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 375.50 | ±6.3% | 351.75–399.25 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 418.29 → 418.78 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 398.50 → 418.78 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 406.51 → 418.78 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 419.70 → 418.78 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 406.96 → 418.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 402.30 → 418.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 396.30 → 418.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +11.7% | 区间外 | 375.00 → 418.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +11.9% | 区间外 | 374.21 → 418.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +12.9% | 区间外 | 370.83 → 418.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +14.7% | 区间外 | 365.25 → 418.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +12.0% | 区间外 | 374.05 → 418.78 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +11.3% | 区间外 | 376.15 → 418.78 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +11.5% | 区间外 | 375.55 → 418.78 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +12.1% | 区间外 | 373.60 → 418.78 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +27.0% | 区间外 | 329.64 → 418.78 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +23.5% | 区间外 | 339.21 → 418.78 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +25.0% | 区间外 | 335.00 → 418.78 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +24.8% | 区间外 | 335.58 → 418.78 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +25.6% | 区间外 | 333.35 → 418.78 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +24.8% | 区间外 | 335.69 → 418.78 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +26.5% | 区间外 | 331.00 → 418.78 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +27.0% | 区间外 | 329.70 → 418.78 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.5% | +17.0% | 区间外 | 357.96 → 418.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | +9.7% | 区间内 | 381.92 → 418.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 402.30 → 403.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 396.30 → 403.24 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 375.00 → 403.24 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 374.21 → 403.24 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 370.83 → 403.24 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +10.4% | 区间外 | 365.25 → 403.24 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +7.8% | 区间内 | 374.05 → 403.24 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | +7.2% | 区间内 | 376.15 → 403.24 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 375.55 → 403.24 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 373.60 → 403.24 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +22.3% | 区间外 | 329.64 → 403.24 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | +18.9% | 区间外 | 339.21 → 403.24 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | +20.4% | 区间外 | 335.00 → 403.24 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.1% | +20.2% | 区间外 | 335.58 → 403.24 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | +21.0% | 区间外 | 333.35 → 403.24 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.1% | +20.1% | 区间外 | 335.69 → 403.24 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +21.8% | 区间外 | 331.00 → 403.24 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +22.3% | 区间外 | 329.70 → 403.24 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.5% | +12.6% | 区间内 | 357.96 → 403.24 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.1% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 381.92 → 403.24 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 375.00 → 374.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 374.21 → 374.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 370.83 → 374.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 365.25 → 374.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 374.05 → 374.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 376.15 → 374.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 375.55 → 374.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 373.60 → 374.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | +13.7% | 区间外 | 329.64 → 374.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | +10.5% | 区间外 | 339.21 → 374.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.0% | +11.9% | 区间外 | 335.00 → 374.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | +11.7% | 区间外 | 335.58 → 374.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | +12.4% | 区间外 | 333.35 → 374.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | +11.6% | 区间外 | 335.69 → 374.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.9% | +13.2% | 区间外 | 331.00 → 374.74 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.