PANW historial de movimiento esperado Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango50%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado50%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio9.0%
Error medio abs.5.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 347.30 | ±4.8% | 330.73–363.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 342.89 | ±6.4% | 320.89–364.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 375.50 | ±6.3% | 351.75–399.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 397.00 | ±6.3% | 371.90–422.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 418.29 | ±7.1% | 388.51–448.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 398.50 | ±7.8% | 367.57–429.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 406.51 | ±7.9% | 374.46–438.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 419.70 | ±8.5% | 384.23–455.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 406.96 | ±8.7% | 371.41–442.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 402.30 | ±9.2% | 365.40–439.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 396.30 | ±10.0% | 356.65–435.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 375.00 | ±12.0% | 329.95–420.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 374.21 | ±12.0% | 329.16–419.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 370.83 | ±12.0% | 326.50–415.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 365.25 | ±11.8% | 322.18–408.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 374.05 | ±12.8% | 326.08–422.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 376.15 | ±13.1% | 326.82–425.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 375.55 | ±13.5% | 324.95–426.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 373.60 | ±13.9% | 321.80–425.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 329.64 | ±12.9% | 287.24–372.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 339.21 | ±13.6% | 293.16–385.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 335.00 | ±13.7% | 288.98–381.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 335.58 | ±14.0% | 288.50–382.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 333.35 | ±13.6% | 287.95–378.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 335.69 | ±13.2% | 291.52–379.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 331.00 | ±13.9% | 285.00–377.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 347.30 | ±7.7% | 320.65–373.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 342.89 | ±8.8% | 312.69–373.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 375.50 | ±8.7% | 342.88–408.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 397.00 | ±8.6% | 362.85–431.15 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | -0.3% | dentro | 342.89 → 342.00 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -8.9% | fuera | 375.50 → 342.00 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -13.9% | fuera | 397.00 → 342.00 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -18.2% | fuera | 418.29 → 342.00 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -14.2% | fuera | 398.50 → 342.00 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -15.9% | fuera | 406.51 → 342.00 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -18.5% | fuera | 419.70 → 342.00 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -16.0% | fuera | 406.96 → 342.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -15.0% | fuera | 402.30 → 342.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -13.7% | fuera | 396.30 → 342.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -8.8% | dentro | 375.00 → 342.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -8.6% | dentro | 374.21 → 342.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -7.8% | dentro | 370.83 → 342.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -6.4% | dentro | 365.25 → 342.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -8.6% | dentro | 374.05 → 342.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -9.1% | dentro | 376.15 → 342.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -8.9% | dentro | 375.55 → 342.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -8.5% | dentro | 373.60 → 342.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | +3.7% | dentro | 329.64 → 342.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 339.21 → 342.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +2.1% | dentro | 335.00 → 342.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | +1.9% | dentro | 335.58 → 342.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | +2.6% | dentro | 333.35 → 342.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +1.9% | dentro | 335.69 → 342.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | +3.3% | dentro | 331.00 → 342.00 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | +3.7% | dentro | 329.70 → 342.00 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -4.5% | dentro | 357.96 → 342.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -10.5% | dentro | 381.92 → 342.00 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 418.29 → 418.78 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +5.1% | fuera | 398.50 → 418.78 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.0% | dentro | 406.51 → 418.78 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 419.70 → 418.78 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.9% | dentro | 406.96 → 418.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +4.1% | dentro | 402.30 → 418.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +5.7% | dentro | 396.30 → 418.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +11.7% | fuera | 375.00 → 418.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +11.9% | fuera | 374.21 → 418.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +12.9% | fuera | 370.83 → 418.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +14.7% | fuera | 365.25 → 418.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +12.0% | fuera | 374.05 → 418.78 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +11.3% | fuera | 376.15 → 418.78 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +11.5% | fuera | 375.55 → 418.78 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +12.1% | fuera | 373.60 → 418.78 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +27.0% | fuera | 329.64 → 418.78 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +23.5% | fuera | 339.21 → 418.78 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +25.0% | fuera | 335.00 → 418.78 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +24.8% | fuera | 335.58 → 418.78 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +25.6% | fuera | 333.35 → 418.78 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +24.8% | fuera | 335.69 → 418.78 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +26.5% | fuera | 331.00 → 418.78 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +27.0% | fuera | 329.70 → 418.78 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.5% | +17.0% | fuera | 357.96 → 418.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | +9.7% | dentro | 381.92 → 418.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 402.30 → 403.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.8% | dentro | 396.30 → 403.24 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +7.5% | fuera | 375.00 → 403.24 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +7.8% | fuera | 374.21 → 403.24 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +8.7% | fuera | 370.83 → 403.24 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +10.4% | fuera | 365.25 → 403.24 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +7.8% | dentro | 374.05 → 403.24 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.