ORLY 预期波动历史 O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项43
收盘价处于区间内67%
|实际值| 低于预期值67%
平均预期波动幅度±4.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.2%
平均绝对误差2.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 89.07 | ±6.9% | 82.94–95.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 89.27 | ±7.8% | 82.34–96.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 86.69 | ±7.0% | 80.59–92.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 86.03 | ±8.2% | 78.98–93.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 85.55 | ±8.5% | 78.28–92.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 86.08 | ±8.8% | 78.53–93.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 84.73 | ±8.5% | 77.56–91.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 85.14 | ±9.1% | 77.39–92.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 83.85 | ±8.9% | 76.40–91.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 84.90 | ±9.0% | 77.25–92.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 85.03 | ±9.2% | 77.18–92.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 85.83 | ±9.8% | 77.38–94.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 85.82 | ±9.8% | 77.37–94.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 83.01 | ±10.3% | 74.46–91.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 84.71 | ±9.9% | 76.36–93.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 85.41 | ±10.2% | 76.66–94.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 83.68 | ±11.1% | 74.38–92.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 85.35 | ±10.6% | 76.30–94.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 87.22 | ±10.9% | 77.67–96.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 85.82 | ±10.4% | 76.92–94.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 86.08 | ±11.0% | 76.63–95.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 86.08 | ±11.0% | 76.63–95.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 87.93 | ±11.0% | 78.28–97.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 87.93 | ±11.0% | 78.28–97.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 87.93 | ±11.0% | 78.28–97.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 87.60 | ±11.1% | 77.85–97.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 89.00 | ±10.8% | 79.35–98.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 89.00 | ±10.8% | 79.35–98.65 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 89.00 | ±10.8% | 79.35–98.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 89.07 | ±9.1% | 80.97–97.17 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 89.27 → 89.27 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 86.69 → 89.27 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +3.8% | 区间外 | 86.03 → 89.27 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 85.55 → 89.27 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +3.7% | 区间外 | 86.08 → 89.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 84.73 → 89.27 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +4.9% | 区间外 | 85.14 → 89.27 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +6.5% | 区间外 | 83.85 → 89.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 84.90 → 89.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +5.0% | 区间外 | 85.03 → 89.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 85.83 → 89.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 85.82 → 89.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 83.01 → 89.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 84.71 → 89.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 85.41 → 89.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 83.68 → 89.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 85.35 → 89.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 87.22 → 89.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 85.82 → 89.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 86.08 → 89.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 86.08 → 89.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 87.93 → 89.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 87.93 → 89.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 87.93 → 89.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 87.60 → 89.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 89.00 → 89.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 89.00 → 89.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 89.00 → 89.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 84.71 → 84.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.8% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 85.41 → 84.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 83.68 → 84.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 85.35 → 84.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | -2.9% | 区间外 | 87.22 → 84.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.0% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 85.82 → 84.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 86.08 → 84.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 86.08 → 84.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 87.93 → 84.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 87.93 → 84.71 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 87.93 → 84.71 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 87.60 → 84.71 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.5% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 89.00 → 84.71 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.5% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 89.00 → 84.71 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.5% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 89.00 → 84.71 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.