ORCL historial de movimiento esperado Oracle Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango74%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado74%
Movimiento esperado promedio±10.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.3%
Error medio abs.4.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 129.64 | ±4.8% | 123.44–135.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 128.33 | ±6.0% | 120.66–136.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 130.23 | ±7.3% | 120.76–139.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 143.44 | ±6.9% | 133.49–153.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 141.52 | ±7.5% | 130.87–152.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 136.18 | ±7.9% | 125.38–146.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 143.98 | ±8.2% | 132.10–155.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 145.10 | ±8.4% | 132.95–157.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 142.72 | ±8.6% | 130.47–154.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 142.25 | ±9.1% | 129.35–155.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 138.18 | ±9.5% | 125.00–151.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 149.10 | ±11.4% | 132.15–166.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 149.17 | ±11.4% | 132.22–166.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 148.67 | ±11.7% | 131.32–166.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 147.82 | ±11.8% | 130.40–165.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 150.57 | ±12.5% | 131.69–169.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 144.02 | ±12.7% | 125.75–162.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 140.15 | ±12.7% | 122.30–158.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 144.34 | ±12.9% | 125.67–163.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 149.39 | ±13.4% | 129.37–169.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 160.00 | ±18.8% | 129.97–190.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 162.00 | ±18.3% | 132.32–191.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 163.40 | ±18.5% | 133.20–193.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 159.70 | ±18.5% | 130.18–189.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 159.12 | ±18.6% | 129.59–188.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 153.90 | ±18.2% | 125.88–181.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 129.64 | ±9.3% | 117.56–141.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 128.33 | ±10.3% | 115.11–141.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 130.23 | ±10.7% | 116.28–144.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 143.44 | ±10.3% | 128.69–158.19 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 128.33 → 128.23 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -1.5% | dentro | 130.23 → 128.23 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -10.6% | fuera | 143.44 → 128.23 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -9.4% | fuera | 141.52 → 128.23 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -5.8% | dentro | 136.18 → 128.23 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -10.9% | fuera | 143.98 → 128.23 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -11.6% | fuera | 145.10 → 128.23 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -10.2% | fuera | 142.72 → 128.23 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -9.9% | fuera | 142.25 → 128.23 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -7.2% | dentro | 138.18 → 128.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -14.0% | fuera | 149.10 → 128.23 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -14.0% | fuera | 149.17 → 128.23 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -13.7% | fuera | 148.67 → 128.23 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -13.3% | fuera | 147.82 → 128.23 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -14.8% | fuera | 150.57 → 128.23 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -11.0% | dentro | 144.02 → 128.23 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -8.5% | dentro | 140.15 → 128.23 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -11.2% | dentro | 144.34 → 128.23 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -14.2% | fuera | 149.39 → 128.23 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.8% | -19.9% | fuera | 160.00 → 128.23 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | -20.8% | fuera | 162.00 → 128.23 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.6% | -21.5% | fuera | 163.40 → 128.23 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.6% | -19.7% | fuera | 159.70 → 128.23 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.7% | -19.4% | fuera | 159.12 → 128.23 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | -16.7% | dentro | 153.90 → 128.23 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | -12.3% | dentro | 146.20 → 128.23 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.5% | -9.3% | dentro | 141.42 → 128.23 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.9% | -14.2% | dentro | 149.40 → 128.23 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 141.52 → 141.40 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +3.8% | fuera | 136.18 → 141.40 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -1.8% | dentro | 143.98 → 141.40 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -2.5% | dentro | 145.10 → 141.40 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 142.72 → 141.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -0.6% | dentro | 142.25 → 141.40 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.3% | dentro | 138.18 → 141.40 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -5.2% | dentro | 149.10 → 141.40 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -5.2% | dentro | 149.17 → 141.40 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -4.9% | dentro | 148.67 → 141.40 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -4.3% | dentro | 147.82 → 141.40 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -6.1% | dentro | 150.57 → 141.40 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -1.8% | dentro | 144.02 → 141.40 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 140.15 → 141.40 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 144.34 → 141.40 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -5.3% | dentro | 149.39 → 141.40 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.7% | -11.6% | dentro | 160.00 → 141.40 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.3% | -12.7% | dentro | 162.00 → 141.40 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.4% | -13.5% | dentro | 163.40 → 141.40 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | -11.5% | dentro | 159.70 → 141.40 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | -11.1% | dentro | 159.12 → 141.40 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -8.1% | dentro | 153.90 → 141.40 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.1% | -3.3% | dentro | 146.20 → 141.40 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.9% | -0.0% | dentro | 141.42 → 141.40 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.6% | -5.4% | dentro | 149.40 → 141.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 142.25 → 142.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | +3.0% | fuera | 138.18 → 142.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -4.6% | dentro | 149.10 → 142.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -4.6% | dentro | 149.17 → 142.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -4.3% | dentro | 148.67 → 142.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -3.7% | dentro | 147.82 → 142.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -5.5% | dentro | 150.57 → 142.30 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.